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Commercial property debt in UK set to fall to 10 year low
Outstanding commercial property debt in the UK is on course to fall to a 10 year low during 2015, declining by 1% in the first half of 2015 to £163.7 billion, according to a new report. However, strong levels of new loan origination in 2015 mean that the total amount outstanding may actually increase for the first time since the recession, the report from academics at De Montfort University also says. The half year edition of the De Montfort Commercial Property Lending Report, the most comprehensive study of the UK’s commercial property lending market, concludes that the continuous decline in total real estate debt since 2008 appears to have almost halted and may subsequently be reversed by the end of the year. The value of new loan originations in the first half of 2015 was £24.7 billion, the highest half year value reported to the research since £49.2 billion recorded for the first half of 2007. In a further sign of commercial property market health, the value of distressed loans fell from £23.2 billion at the end of 2014 to £15.7 billion by the middle of 2015. The report also show that the proportion of loans with a loan to value (LTV) ratio of less than 70% has continued to grow in the first half of 2015, representing 80.5%, or £135.5 billion of outstanding debt of the traditional lenders and allocated to investment projects. Outstanding debt with a LTV ratio of between 71% and 100% fell from 14.3% of the total of £20 billion at the end of 2014 to 12% or £16 billon by the middle of 2015. The first half of the year also showed an encouraging pick-up in development finance, particularly for speculative or partly pre-let projects, where more non-traditional lenders now feel comfortable providing finance against such schemes. At the same time, the research suggests that banking regulation may be having an adverse impact on development finance by the traditional lenders. At the middle of 2015, only 2.8% of debt was allocated to commercial development projects by these lenders. Interest rate margins for senior debt continued their three-year long decline but the pace of decline has moderated considerably. By the middle of 2015, the average margin for senior loans secured by prime office property was recorded at 214bps, down from 218.7bps recorded at the end of 2014. The report suggests that that the floor in interest-rate margins may have been reached. Following a surge in non-traditional lenders in 2014, Banks and Building Societies remained the dominant lenders in the market, holding 76% of all loan originations at the middle year point compared to 75% at the end of 2014. The level of new lending by UK Banks and Building Societies remained stable at 39% of all loan originations. ‘We seem to have reached a turning point in the amount of commercial property debt in the market, with the impact of post-crisis deleveraging almost totally… Continue reading
Surge in mortgages available in UK for small deposit buyers
A surge of product launches over recent months means the number of 95% loan to value (LTV) mortgage products available in the UK rose by 84% year on year, new research shows. In November some 260 different products in this range were available, the highest amount since the recession according to the latest Genworth/Moneyfacts Mortgage LTV Tracker. Analysis by Genworth, a mortgage insurer, reveals the number of mortgage products available to buyers with a 5% deposit has risen by 119 over the last year, from 141 in November 2014 to 260 last month. There are now more than six times as many 95% LTV loans available compared to September 2013 at 260 compared to 43, before the Government’s Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme launched. It means there are more deals available for home buyers with a 5% deposit than at any other time since the recession as the number of available products has surged in recent months, rising by 68 in the last three months alone. In comparison, competition in other areas of the market has stayed relatively stable or, in some cases, even declined. The number of 75% LTV products fell by 38 between August and November this year. The number of 90% LTV loans fell by one, while 80% LTV products rose by just nine in the same period. 85% LTV loans remained constant, with 669 products available. The tracker report also shows the average rate of a 95% LTV mortgage fell 1.15% from 5.27% in November 2014 to 4.12% last month, also the lowest amount since the recession. Average 75% LTV mortgages also fell by 0.27% annually to 1.90% in November from 2.17% at the same point last year. However, this was 0.07% higher than the record low of 1.83% seen in June 2015. Nevertheless, this means the price gap between 95% and 75% LTV decreased year on year by 0.88% to 2.22%, the smallest since the recession. Off the back of low rates, the number of first time buyers has also increased. Indeed, the third quarter of 2015 saw the highest number of loans to first time buyers so far this year at 86,800, up by 13% from the second quarter of 2015 and 6% more than the 82,100 loans made in the third quarter of 2014. The average first time buyer LTV in the third quarter rose from 82% in the first quarter of the year and the second quarter to 84%, giving the average first time buyer a deposit of 16%, down from 18%, unchanged from the third quarter of 2014. However, Genworth’s analysis raises concerns that lending at 90 to 95% LTV is actually in decline. There was £1.61 billion lent through 90% to 95% LTV loans in the third quarter of 2015, down by 27% from the £2.20 billion lent in the third quarter of 2014. This means… Continue reading
Property price growth in Sydney and Melbourne to slow in 2016
Property price growth in Sydney and Melbourne is expected to slow in 2016 as prices have peaked, according to an outlook report from the Housing Industry Association (HIA). It points out that as of November pries had increased in Sydney by 12.8% year on year and in Melbourne by 11.8% year on year. Then there was a huge gap to Brisbane where prices increased by 4% year on year. ‘The aggregate price cycle, heavily masked by Sydney and Melbourne, will continue to experience decelerating growth. Sydney and Melbourne are the two biggest markets and it is appropriate that price growth is slowing,’ the HIA report says. It points out that variable mortgage rates are on the rise and this is likely to dampen price growth. Overall the market was busy in 2015 for residential construction with new home commencements reaching a record high of nearly 212,000 in 2014/2015 and are forecast to exceed 200,000 in 2015/2016. ‘If we can progress right through 2016 with commencements holding up at an annualised level above 180, 000, and we forecast that will happen, that outcome should be regarded as a healthy one,’ the report explains. Indeed, new dwelling commencements increased for a third consecutive year in 2014/2015, only the fifth time in the past 60 years that housing starts have seen three straight years of growth. The record level of nearly 212,000 starts is 13% than the previous high of 187,000 in 1994. It adds that new home building is set for another healthy year ahead. Continue reading
