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UK property prices up in August despite Brexit worries
House prices in the UK increased by 0.6% in August and are now 5.6% above a year ago, according to the latest index figures to be published. This continued growth takes the average price of a home to £206,145, the data from the Nationwide shows, indicating that an expected fall due to Brexit has not yet materialised. The pick up in price growth is somewhat at odds with signs that housing market activity has slowed in recent months, according to Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, saying that this includes a softening of new buyer enquiries to the introduction of additional stamp duty on second homes in April and the uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum. Meanwhile, the number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell to an 18 month low in July. ‘However, the decline in demand appears to have been matched by weakness on the supply side of the market. Surveyors report that instructions to sell have also declined and the stock of properties on the market remains close to 30 year lows,’ Gardner explained. ‘This helps to explain why the pace of house price growth has remained broadly stable. What happens next on the demand side will be determined, to a large extent, by the outlook for the labour market and confidence amongst prospective buyers,’ he pointed out. He believes that it is encouraging that the unemployment rate remained at a 10 year low in the three months to June, though labour market trends tend to lag developments in the wider economy and it is also positive that retail sales increased at a healthy rate in July, up almost 6% compared to the previous year, even though consumer confidence fell sharply during the month. ‘However, business surveys suggest that the manufacturing, services and construction sectors all slowed sharply in July, and, if sustained, this is likely to have a negative impact on the labour market and household confidence,’ he said. ‘Most forecasters, including the Bank of England, expect the economy to show little growth over the remainder of the year. Indeed, these concerns prompted the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to implement a range of stimulus measures at the start of August, which will provide support to economic activity and the housing market. Monetary policy measures will provide some support for households and the housing market,’ Gardner commented. ‘The MPC’s decision to lower UK interest rates from 0.5% to a new low of 0.25% will provide an immediate benefit to many mortgage borrowers, though for most the boost will be fairly modest. The MPC’s stimulus measures will also provide indirect support to the housing market, and not just by boosting wider economic activity,’ he added. According to Nicholas Finn, executive director of Garrington Property Finders, the data reveals a property market that is still unsettled rather than upbeat. ‘On the front line we’re seeing some strong intent but a lack of clarity among buyers. The cut in interest rates and resilient… Continue reading
New home building set for record year but will decline in next couple of years
This year looks like being a record for new home building in Australia but the outlook for 2017 is not buoyant with predictions that it could be very different as new homes sales are falling. The monthly survey of Australia’s largest volume builders by the Housing Industry Association (HIA) reveals that total seasonally adjusted new home sales fell by 9.7% in July 2016 following an increase of 8.2% the previous month. HIA chief economist Harley Dale said that the overall trend decline in new home sales is accelerating, signalling a relatively sharp drop from a record high in new dwelling commencements from 2017. ‘New home construction has been the kingmaker of the Australia economy, but the cycle has peaked. In all likelihood we will experience sharper falls in new home construction in both 2017 and 2018,’ he explained. ‘The magnitude of decline in new home construction in coming years will of course be exaggerated by where we are coming from and that is record levels of medium/high density construction and historically healthy levels of detached/semi-detached dwelling construction,’ he pointed out. ‘There will no doubt be a tendency to sensationalise any negative results for new housing as the trajectory of the down cycle unfolds. We would do well to remember that this down cycle is following a record high that is some 24% higher than the previous peak in 1994 and that there is an unprecedented degree of uncertainty this time around as to how the next few years of new home building unfold,’ he added. A breakdown of the figures shows that detached house sales fell in all five mainland states in July after rising everywhere in June. Sales dropped by 12.6% in South Australia and were down by 8.7% in Queensland, by 8.2% in Western Australia, by 6.2% in New South Wales, and by 6% in Victoria. Dale also explained that the current new home building boom is unlike any other that has come before it. It is the longest and largest in Australia’s history but he added that it is marked by substantial regional divergences in the levels of activity in various markets around the country and the mix of dwelling types being built has changed dramatically. ‘As the down cycle in new home building unfolds, the record pipeline of medium/high density dwellings in particular creates considerable uncertainty as to the timing and magnitude of the decline in construction,’ he concluded. HIA’s forecasts are for a peak of over 232,500 new dwelling commencements to have been reached in 2015/2016, which will be followed by three consecutive years of decline. New dwelling commencements are forecast to bottom out at a level of around 166,500 in 2018/2019. Continue reading
Property prices up across most of Portugal including Lisbon and the Algarve
The average price of a home in Portugal increased by 5.4% in the second quarter of 2016 when compared to the same period last year, according to the data to be published. Property prices rose across most regions of Portugal during the quarter taking the national average to €1,187 per square meter. The data from online property information platform Idealista also shows that growth was led by gains in Lisbon where the average property rose in value by 6% year on year to an average €1,451 per square meter. It means that Lisbon still has the most expensive property in Portugal with prices in the centre up 9.1% to an average of €2,716 per square meter. Prices in the Algarve, which is popular with overseas buyers increased by 4% year on year to an average of €1,361 per square meter. The data also shows that in the north of the country prices increased by 2% to €907 per square meter an in Centro they were up by 1.9% to €948 per square meter. However property prices fell in Alentejo and Madeira, down by an average of 3.3% over the same period. But in Madeira, an archipelago in the north Atlantic that is part of Portugal, prices are the third highest at €1,102 per square meter, followed by the Alentejo at €1,101 per square meter. Continue reading
