Tag Archives: irish
Analysis of housing data shows Dublin residential market had a see-saw 2015
Last year is generally regarded as having been one of growth for the residential property market in Ireland but a new analysis shows how Dublin experienced a slowdown towards the end of 2015. Overall sales increased by 10% compared to 2014 but a closer examination of the detailed monthly data from real estate firm Savills reveals a very different picture. Year on year growth in housing transactions fell continuously throughout 2015, slipping from a positive 75% in January to an outright decline of 18% in December. The report explains that this reflects two major policy changes which impacted on demand. Firstly, generous Capital Gains Tax (CGT) incentives for investors were removed on 31 December 2014. As this deadline approached investors rushed to complete deals, causing transactions to spike in late 2014 and early 2015 as some deals carried into the New Year. After that, however, investor numbers retreated to a more normalised level. The second important policy change was the introduction of new mortgage lending restrictions by the Central Bank. Following a preliminary announcement in October 2014 buyers rushed to secure old style loan approvals in late 2014 and the opening weeks of 2015. These were deployed in the first half of 2015, boosting sales. ‘However the true impact of the macro-prudential rules began to emerge in the second half of 2015 as some people were priced out by restrictions on how much they could borrow. Indeed, these dynamics can be seen in the regional pattern of transactions growth,’ the report says. Because investors were more focused on Dublin, this market saw the biggest uplift from the impending CGT deadline in late 2014 and early 2015. Subsequently, however, Dublin suffered the largest slowdown in sales as the frontloading of investment deals left a vacuum in 2015. ‘Similarly, because absolute price levels are higher in Dublin, the Central Bank rules are more binding in this location. This caused transactions to slow more sharply in Dublin than elsewhere when the rules impacted later in the year,’ the report adds. The analysis report also shows that the rate of house price growth in Dublin slowed quite dramatically during 2015 from 21.6% in January to just 2.6% by the end of the year. It says that part of this was due to base effects as the average Dublin property is now €87,000 more expensive than at the low point of the market in the fourth quarter of 2012. ‘Therefore the same absolute price increase is now gradually leading to a smaller and smaller percentage change,’ it explains. But part of the slowdown is also attributable to removal of the CGT incentive. ‘As investors had been more focused on Dublin than elsewhere, withdrawal of this tax break created a bigger vacuum in the capital,’ the report points out. But the most important factor has been the Central Bank mortgage rules. The average property in Dublin costs around 54% more than that outside the capital. ‘Without a… Continue reading
UK farmland market sees east/west divide open up
An east/west divide in value growth for farmland in the UK has opened up in what has been a mixed year for sector, according to a new analysis report. Indeed, 2015 was a year of change across the farmland markets as, for the first time in a decade, price falls in arable land values were recorded in the eastern counties of England, the Savills Farmland Value Survey shows. Grassland values, generally in the west, which have lagged behind arable values, have continued to increase and this has created an east/west divide and also mirrors the contrasting supply dynamics, as noted on Supply and Demand 2015, which has also been a contributory factor to supporting values in the west. Farmers made up 50% of farmland sellers last year, the highest proportion in seven years as low commodity prices and the short term outlook for UK agriculture prompted some to capitalise on high average land values and retire. The report points out that farmers made up the smallest proportion of buyers since 2003 at 43% of all transactions. Meanwhile, non-farmers including lifestyle buyers, investors and institutional/corporate buyers represented the biggest percentage of purchasers in the past 12 years. Expansion of an existing holding was the principal motivation to buy, representing the predominant reason in more than half of all transactions, with three quarters of those farmers who took on more land citing expansion as the reason to buy. Just short of 176,500 acres of farmland were publicly marketed across Great Britain in 2015, an increase of 24%, or an additional 34,000 acres compared with 2014. Across England, market activity increased by 16% to around 120,000 acres with a clear divide between the eastern and western regions. Increased supply was recorded in the eastern regions, most notably in the East Midlands. In contrast, reduced supply was recorded down the western side of England. In Scotland market activity increased 47% in 2015, which may be the result of a combination of factors including pressure on farm incomes and some pent-up activity following a year of uncertainty caused by the Scottish Referendum. ‘In the light of recent market evidence, the short to medium term expectations for commodity prices and therefore farm profitability, we have downgraded our forecasts for the next five years. We expect values to be much more varied than in the past five years,’ said Alex Lawson, director of National Farms and Estates at Savills.. ‘Exceptional prices may still be achieved if all the right factors come together, but conversely it is very likely that there will be more farms where potential sale prices fail to reach expectations or they fail to sell. We expect this market will last three to four years until commodity prices start to recover, following stronger global growth,’ he explained. Continue reading
New home registrations up 7% year on year in UK
The number of new homes registered to be built in the UK increased by 7% year on year in 2015, reaching an eight year high of over 156,000, new data shows. The figures from the National House Building Council (NHBC) show that 75% more new homes were registered in 2015 than at the time of the housing crash in 2009 and there were 156,140 registration compared to 146,359 in 2014. Private sector registrations increased by 7% to 118,611 in 2015 compared to 110,674 in 2014 while public sector registration increased by 5% to 37,529 from 35,685 in 2014. Continuing the trend from 2014, the number of detached homes registered reached 42,173, the highest for over a decade. Additionally, the number of semi-detached homes registered in 2015 at 35,423 was the highest in more than 20 years. NHBC's latest data also revealed that the majority of UK regions experienced notable growth on 2014 levels, with the Eastern region up 23%, the North West up 16% and Scotland up by 15%. In the East Midlands growth was 12%, the South West up 9% and West Midlands also up 9%. While Northern Ireland saw the biggest increase at 30%, the NHBC pointed out that this was from a relatively low base. London is still leading the way in the number of new home registrations. Although the 2015 figure of 25,994 registrations is down 9% on the record 2014 total of 28,518, although 2015 saw the third highest number of registrations on record. Yorkshire and the Humber was down 13% on 2014 and Wales down 2% on 2014. As the leading warranty and insurance provider for new homes in the UK, NHBC's registration statistics are the lead indicator of the health of the country's new homes market. ‘2015 was a year for continued housing growth in the UK. Both the public and private sectors have performed well and we have seen encouraging levels of house building across most regions of the country,’ said NHBC chief executive Mike Quinton. ‘The detached home continues its resurgence, with our figures showing that house builders are building the highest number of detached properties for over a decade, with semi-detached homes also at their highest level in more than 20 years,’ he pointed out. ‘There is still a way to go before we are building the levels of new homes that were seen before the economic downturn, but 2015 represents consolidation on the growth seen over the last three years,’ he added. However, it would seem that this is not translating into work for smaller builders. According to the Federation of Master Builders’ (FMB) workloads for small builders across the country took a downward turn towards the end of 2015. ‘The building industry remains confident of continued growth but the slowdown we saw in the last quarter is a cause for concern,’ said Brian Berry, chief executive of the FMB,, who added that despite the growth in registrations both current and expected construction workloads are… Continue reading
