Tag Archives: indian
Look Beyond Short-Term Turbulence In Emerging Markets
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/efa289c2-d995-11e2-98fa-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2X2DFzLUx By Mark Mobius The long-term emerging markets picture is bright, says Mark Mobius Emerging stock markets ended May in decline, with concerns that the US Federal Reserve could taper quantitative easing (QE) measures earlier than expected accompanied by a sharp correction in Japanese bonds and profit-taking in Japanese equities. June has been even worse – QE worries are still with us, there have been riots in Brazil and Turkey and softer economic data out of China. Not surprisingly, this has hit emerging market bonds, stocks and currencies hard. This week, the Indian rupee hit an all-time low against the dollar. It is not a pretty picture. But the longer-term case for emerging markets is much more persuasive. Looking back, for example, in 10 of the past 12 calendar years, emerging markets have outperformed developed markets. One major reason I remain positive on emerging markets is growth. Although short-term global GDP forecasts have tended to drift lower as quarterly releases have missed expectations in a number of markets, I think 2012 will mark the low point in overall growth, with acceleration anticipated in 2013 and in subsequent years. I expect emerging market growth in 2013 and beyond to continue to be much stronger than growth in developed markets. As well as feeding into corporate profitability and valuations over time, this economic growth is likely to drive rising demand for commodities. Augmenting overall growth patterns, industrialisation and urbanisation in emerging markets are likely to increase commodity demand further, which over the longer term will drive commodity prices ahead. While commodities, exports and infrastructure development continue to be leading growth drivers in many emerging market economies, overall growth is likely to come increasingly from domestic sources. Expanding consumer wealth is creating an increasingly large and discriminating body of middle class consumers across emerging markets, and their demand – for cars, electronics and other consumer goods and services – is in turn creating increasingly significant domestic economic activity. Consumer indebtedness in emerging markets is far lower than in developed markets, so emerging market consumers have commensurately greater capacity to gear up their demand. In addition, demographic factors are far more favourable in many emerging markets than in many developed markets. With a relatively high proportion of the population in emerging markets moving into the workforce and a relatively low proportion of dependants, demographics are helping to reinforce consumer demand. Even in markets such as China, where demographics are less clearly favourable, productivity gains from moves out of agriculture and into manufacturing and service industries still provide a positive influence on growth and domestic demand. As emerging markets become more mature and investors in the asset class more varied and sophisticated, niche product offerings are becoming increasingly significant. For example, smaller companies represent a distinct opportunity within the emerging markets universe, providing exposure to businesses at an early and fast-growing stage of their life cycle. Private equity and private investment in public equity vehicles also help address these young, dynamic businesses. Within emerging markets. “frontier markets” enjoy strong growth arising from their low starting base, abundant natural and human resources and the availability of easy gains from market reforms and injections of technology into relatively low-wage economies. They are relatively under-researched, so undervaluation and pricing anomalies abound. Nowhere is this more the case than Africa, which I feel represents an investment destination on its own account. There are those who say the link between GDP growth and market returns is tenuous. Maybe. But investors don’t buy markets, they buy companies. For all the attractive trends outlined above, investors should always be looking for those stocks that are most underpriced relative to their long-term potential. In frontier markets, that potential is largely about capital growth. But increasing numbers of emerging market companies now trade on attractive dividend yields, and income is becoming a bigger component of total returns. Mark Mobius is executive chairman of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group Continue reading
Mistaken identity issue haunts Indian expat
Mistaken identity issue haunts Indian expat Allan Jacob and Amira Agarib / 21 June 2013 His voice is unsteady as he narrates his arrest and the ordeal that followed in a mistaken identity case. George Thomas’s only “crime” was that he had the same name of a suspect on the run in a bounced cheque case. Today, he’s a shattered man, struggling to rebuild his life, reputation and business after the traumatic experience. The incident has left him scarred and he’s undergoing psychiatric treatment at a hospital in Dubai. But, after getting a clear chit in the case early this month, he’s still asking why the charge was foisted on him when the facts were as clear as day on the day of his arrest at Sharjah airport in 2011. Answers are not forthcoming from the police or the legal affairs department, who appear to have closed the file stating that an “amicable solution” has not been reached. Frustrated with their lack of response, Thomas is considering going to court again seeking compensation. ‘’I don’t know where to start now, it’s all a whirl, my mind is spinning. Friends deserted me for something I didn’t do. In their eyes, I had become a criminal,’’ says Thomas, an Indian expat, who runs a business in Sharjah. He places neat red files on the table and points to a section which has his passport copy and that of the alleged perpetrator. The victim and violator on the same page. “Do I look like him?” he asks. “It was clear from the start that I was not the man they were looking for. Yet, I was imprisoned and mocked in front of the world and later cast aside like my life didn’t matter, he says, his anger rising. “I’ve lived in the UAE for 15 years and I don’t deserve this.” Thomas’s troubles began on December 18, 2011, after he was arrested at Sharjah airport on his way to India. The case dates to 2006, when a bank filed a petition with the Bur Dubai police station against their customer George Thomas Thomas, aged 54, after a cheque issued by him had bounced. The file moved to the Dubal Public Prosecution and the department issued an order against George Thomas P. V. Thomas, aged 46 (the wrong man) on September 26, 2010, according to records. He was tried in absentia and sentenced to five months in prison by the Dubai Court of First Instance. Summons were issued on February 2, 2011, and an arrest warrant was issued on February 7, 2011. Thomas was picked up from the airport and separated from his wife and kids. He was lodged in Dubai’s Al Aweer jail, where he was interrogated. He says he had nothing to confess, and three days later, he was released after he handed over his passport. “I could not go anywhere and my business was hit as losses mounted. My family suffered in silence, my mental balance was affected and I checked into a hospital for psychiatric treatment,” he says. Through all this trauma, he also had to attend hearings at the Court Of Appeal. “I was confident I would win the case, and I did after a long trial spanning 10 sessions.’’ The appeals court overturned the verdict and ruled in his favour on May 7, 2012. George Thomas P. V. Thomas was not a criminal after all. He was free to go. “It was right in front of their eyes when they first arrested me; only they didn’t see it.” Since then, he’s been seeking answers from the Dubai Police. “Why me?” he often asks during our conversation, staring into the distance. “They never took notice when I protested and pleaded my innocence two years ago. Now, they don’t bother,’’ he says. He sought an explanation from the Dubai Police Headquarters, but they referred the matter to the Legal Affairs Department who, on June 6 this year, issued a certificate stating that the disputed parties had “failed to reach an amicable settlement”. It’s a statement that is as befuddling as his arrest and incarceration on trumped up charges. Thomas, meanwhile, has sent a letter through the Indian consulate to the office of His Highness Shaikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Makhtoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE, and Ruler of Dubai. “Shaikh Mohammed’s quest for excellence is something I admire. I only hope the criminal justice system seeks excellence and not send more innocents like me to jail. They’ll only ruin lives of honest people.’’ Legal view According to Dr Jamal Al Sumaithi, Director-General of the Dubai Judicial Institute, any person who has been unfairly subjected to harm and his/her rights have been violated, can lodge a complaint against the government department concerned. “They should approach the legal department of the Dubai Government which will help the two parties reach a solution. If they fail to do so, the affected party may approach the Dubai Civil Court.” — allan@khaleejtimes.com Continue reading
Airlines Call for Single Emissions Standard
June 4, 2013 Airlines Call for Single Emissions Standard The International Air Transport Association, which represents 85 percent of the world’s airline traffic, has adopted a resolution calling for a single, industry-wide market-based measure to manage and offset emissions. The IATA yesterday agreed to the Implementation of the Aviation Carbon-Neutral Growth CNG2020 Strategy resolution at its 69th general meeting in Cape Town, South Africa. State-owned Chinese and Indian airlines voted against the resolution. The principles agreed to by the industry group, which apply to emissions growth post-2020, are designed to give governments a foundation for negotiation after United Nations talks failed to resolve a stand-off over carbon emissions between the European Union and a broad swath of other countries, Reuters reports. The European Commission suspended its carbon emissions laws on flights taking off or landing from EU member states after the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed to consider a global plan to cut airline emissions. The single market-based measure will be critical in the short term as a gap-filler until technology, operations and infrastructure solutions mature, the IATA says. The group has called for governments to approve a market-based measure designed to deliver real emissions reductions, not revenue generation. Last month, a group of high-level aviation industry representatives from 17 countries began working with the ICAO to develop a plan to curb the aviation sector’s growing greenhouse gas emissions by the ICAO’s General Assembly in September. The group was reportedly considering three options at the time: a mandatory offsetting program, mandatory offsetting that would raise revenue to fund joint measures to address climate change and a global emissions trading scheme along the lines of the European Union’s carbon market. The industry group also has agreed to global targets, including improving fuel efficiency by 1.5 percent annually to 2020, capping net emissions and cutting emissions in half by 2050 compared to a 2005 baseline. Continue reading
