Taylor Scott International News
English farmland values fell by almost 2% in the final quarter of 2015 to end the year at £8,165 an acre, according to the latest index report. The data from the Knight Frank Farmland Index shows that it was the first quarterly fall since December 2012. However, the average value of bare agricultural land still rose 4% in the first half of the year and 3% overall during 2015. This compares with a rise of 1% for prime London residential property and falls for the FTSE 100 of 5% and gold down 7%. Looking over a wider period of time farmland in England has increased in price by 41% over five years, by 196% over 10 years and by 5,089% over 50 years. The Knight Frank report suggests that there are a number of reasons why values have come back. ‘The continuing run of low commodity prices had to have an impact on buyer confidence at some point. Feed wheat is worth just half of what it was fetching just a few years ago and many dairy and livestock businesses are struggling to remain profitable,’ said Andrew Shirley, head of rural research at Knight Frank. ‘The fact that land values have held up so well indicates that commodity prices are far from the most important driver of the land market,’ he explained, adding that uncertainty about the outcome of the European Union referendum, likely to be held this year, will also be holding back some potential buyers concerned about the potential impact of a Brexit. The delayed payment of agricultural subsidies to some farmers and a potential hike in interest rates will also have dampened spirits. Currently Knight Frank is not predicting that the fourth quarter fall presages a long run of prices drops. ‘Indeed, assuming the UK votes to remain in the EU, it is entirely possible that 2016 could see prices rise slightly,’ said Shirley. ‘Many farming businesses, particularly those with profitable renewable energy schemes, remain cash generative and are looking to expand. There are also a significant number of farmers who have sold land for development or via compulsory purchase and are looking for agricultural property to reinvest into,’ he pointed out. ‘The market will continue to be extremely localised. Large blocks of investment grade land which were achieving prices of over £13,000 an acre last year may see values come off as investors await the outcome of the EU referendum, but where there is competitive bidding from local farmers, values will remain firm,’ he added. Taylor Scott International
Taylor Scott International, Taylor Scott
