Taylor Scott International News
UK house prices increased by 0.2% in April but annual house price growth has slowed to 4.9%, down from 5.7% the month before, the latest index figures show. This takes the average price of a home to £202,436 with the slowing of activity not a surprise due to increased market growth in March due to stamp duty changes, according to the index report from the Nationwide. Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said that the slowdown returns the annual pace of house price growth to the fairly narrow range between 3% and 5% that had been prevailing since the summer of 2015. ‘It may be that the surge in house purchase activity resulting from the increase in stamp duty on second homes provided a temporary boost to prices in March. However, it is possible that the recent pattern of strong employment growth, rising real earnings, low borrowing costs and constrained supply will tilt the demand/supply balance in favour of sellers and exert upward pressure on price growth once again in the quarters ahead,’ he explained. He pointed out that there were 165,400 transactions in March, an all-time high, some 11% higher than the previous peak of 149,000 recorded in January 2007 and estimates from the Council of Mortgage Lenders suggests that mortgage lending also rose sharply, to almost £26 billion in March, up 43% from the £18 billion recorded in February. ‘If confirmed by Bank of England data later this week, this would suggest a strong outcome, up nearly 60% year on year and also well above recent highs of £22 billion per month recorded in early 2015, though still well below the all-time high of £34.9 billion recorded in June 2007,’ Gardner said. ‘The increase in mortgage lending is likely to have been driven by a sharp increase in buy to let investors bringing forward their purchases before the stamp duty changes took effect. Buy to let has accounted for an unusually high share of lending in recent months, at around 19% of lending in the three months to February, but the strength of activity suggests its share could surpass 25% in March,’ he explained. ‘Viewing the transactions and mortgage lending data together suggests that, while buy to let lending is likely to have risen strongly in March, a large proportion of the boost to house purchase activity came from cash buyers,’ he added. Gardner also pointed out that cash purchasers have become a more significant part of the market since the financial crisis, accounting for around 35% of all transactions since 2008 compared with around 25% in 2006/20007. ‘Cash investors would have also been better placed to buy properties in the relatively short period of time between the stamp duty announcement at the November Autumn Statement and the implementation on 01 April,’ he added. But a continued limited supply of properties could mean that the market could still be lively in the coming months, according to Michelle Grant, investment director of Grant… Taylor Scott International
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