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Prices and sales in Scotland expected to keep rising in first quarter of 2016
House prices and sales in Scotland are likely to keep rising in the first quarter of this year following an unusually buoyant December, according to a new report. The latest monthly survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) in Scotland said rising demand from would be buyers and a slight increase in the number of properties coming onto the market led to a rise in newly agreed sales last month. Throughout 2015, surveyors reported almost continual growth in prices and this went on into December, with a net balance of 29 per cent more respondents reporting a rise in house prices. A net balance of 35% of Scottish respondents forecast a rise in transactions in the January to March period, with 24% of surveyors also expecting average prices to increase in this quarter. ‘The Scottish housing market has experienced an unusually buoyant December, with growth in transactions, demand and a small increase in properties coming onto the market,’ said Sarah Speirs, director of RICS Scotland . ‘Despite this growth in new instructions, the chronic shortage of housing supply in Scotland continues to result in rising house prices and rents across the country. To remedy the shortage, Scottish Government policy is, and for a considerable amount of time has been, aimed at supporting demand and, more crucially, the new build market and home ownership,’ she added. RICS has launched its manifesto Shaping Scotland’s Housing Future which aims to inform political parties of the role property plays in driving Scotland’s economic growth ahead of the parliamentary elections in May. It calls on policy makers to recognise the scale of the housing crisis, and elevate housing to the top of their political priorities as well as increasing the supply of housing and taking action to maintain and renew Scotland’s existing housing stock. The report also recommends ta review of tax and incentives around all properties and the creation of a Housing Land Agency, which would work with local authorities and developers identifying land, primarily in areas of market failure, and installing any necessary infrastructure for sites. ‘Adequate housing supply is vital to economic growth and the much coveted stabilising of house prices and rents. It is estimated that between 25,000 and 35,000 homes need to be built, per year, to meet demand adequately. This target covers all tenures, not just affordable housing,’ the report says. ‘An independent agency would work with local authorities and developers by identifying new development sites and installing any necessary infrastructure for sites, primarily in areas of market failure,’ it adds. RICS envisages that land acquired by the agency, through reformed Compulsory Purchase Order (CPO) powers, could be sold to less established participants, such as small and medium enterprises (SMEs), private rented sector (PRS) investors, self-build and co-ownership and thus widening participation and assisting a vibrant SME sector and the wider economy. It also points out that the PRS market in Scotland has been dominated by small scale investments from individual landlords who… Continue reading
Tax figures confirm the December was a buoyant month for UK property market
Figures from the UK’s tax collector confirm other evidence from index reports that the property market continued to be buoyant at the end of last year when it would normally be slowing. Sales increased by 1.9% between November and December 2015 and were up by 11.6% year on year, according to the data from HMRC. Over all there were 108,710 residential and 9,700 non-residential transactions. Residential sales increased by 3.6% month on month and 10.6% year in year. According to Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, it is clear that December defied the normal seasonal slowdown in the UK property market. ‘After a cautious start, there was a clear key change in sales levels after the conclusion of the general election, and the year closed on a high note and defied the usual seasonal slowdown with December experiencing the largest volume of property sales of any month in 2015, as buyers rushed to complete transactions before Christmas,’ he explained. ‘This steady build-up of activity and buyer confidence is even more impressive when you consider some of the adverse changes the housing market has had to stomach over the past 12 months,’ he pointed out. ‘While the shakeup of stamp duty was indeed welcome for many first time buyers and those purchasing property at the lower bands, it has been harder to digest at the middle and top-end, where the increased levy is particularly onerous,’ said Rollings. ‘With an additional 3% of stamp duty coming into effect for second home owners in April, 2016 may well see the opposite with a growth spurt in the early stages of this year that could then taper off in the short term while the market retunes,’ he added. Continue reading
Mortgage lending in UK up 23% year on year, says latest CML data
Gross mortgage lending in the UK reached £19.9 billion in December, some 3% less than the previous month but up 23% year on year. The data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) brings the estimated total for the year to £220.3 billion, an 8% increase on 2014’s £203.3 billion and the highest annual gross lending figure since 2008. Gross mortgage lending for the fourth quarter of 2015 was therefore an estimated £62.3 billion. This is a 1% increase on the third quarter and a 23% increase on the fourth quarter of 2014. ‘Lending ended the year stronger than it started, with our estimate of nearly £20 billion lent in December. This brings total lending to just over £220 billion for 2015 as a whole, and slightly higher than we had anticipated,’ said CML economist Mohammad Jamei. ‘The low inflation environment, along with real wage growth, an improving labour market and competitive mortgage deals have all helped to underpin demand. Having said this, the upside potential looks limited over the near term, as the supply of existing and new properties on the market remains weak, and affordability pressures weigh on activity,’ he pointed out. ‘There is an added element of uncertainty as we wait to see the impact of tax changes on the buy to let sector,’ he added. John Eastgate, sales and marketing director of OneSavings Bank, believes that the stamp duty tax changes on second properties from April are expected to increase mortgage lending activity ahead of their rollout. ‘However we don’t see this as a long term trend. The end of the year is a difficult time to conclude a great deal. Regulatory changes are expected to cause a short term spike in demand from investors, which will be reflected in first quarter figures, while overall conditions are supportive of sustainable growth in gross mortgage lending,’ he said. ‘Investor demand may balance out after the April rush, but the Help to Buy ISA will help underpin long term first time buyer demand, and the diminishing prospect of an interest rate rise will help keep a lid on monthly mortgage payments. As UK employment hits a record high, all this bodes well for borrowers’ finances and the health of the market,’ he added. The indusry should not be concerned about that dip in December, acdoring to Rishi Passi, chief executive officer of Oblix Capital. 'In the longer term, low inflation and reasonable wage growth look set to improve affordability for first time buyers and those on the bottom rungs of the ladder,' he said. 'Help to Buy will also go some way to fill the void left by any buy to let landlords downsizing their portfolios, so developers with one eye on the future should be preparing future stock to meet this shifting demand,' he added. Continue reading
