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Property sales in Canada up for third month in a row, latest data shows
Home sales across Canada increased in April month on month for the third time a row, according to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association. Sales were up 2.3% from March to April but actual, not seasonally adjusted activity was 10% above levels a year ago while the CREA home price index increased 4.97% year on year. The data also shows that the national average sale price rose 9.5% on a year on year basis in April but excluding Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, it increased by 3.4%. April sales were up from the previous month in two thirds of all local markets, led by the Greater Toronto Area, the surrounding Golden Horseshoe region, and Montreal. ‘As expected, low mortgage interest rates and the onset of spring ushered many home buyers off the sidelines, particularly in regions where winter was long and bitter,’ said CREA president Pauline Aunger. Gregory Klump, CREA chief economist, pointed out that in recent years, the seasonal pattern for home sales and listings has become amplified in places where listings are in short supply relative to demand. ‘This particularly stands out in and around Toronto. Sellers there have increasingly delayed listing their home until spring. Once listed, it sells fairly quickly. Sales over the year as a whole in Southern Ontario are likely being constrained to some degree by a short supply of single family homes,’ he said. ‘However, the busy spring home buying and selling season has become that much busier as a result of sellers waiting until winter has faded before listing,’ he added. A breakdown of the figures shows that sales were up on a year on year basis in about 70% of all local markets, led by activity in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Greater Toronto, and Montreal. Of the 18 local markets that set new records for the month of April, all but two are in Southern Ontario. The number of newly listed homes was virtually unchanged, up 0.1% in April compared to March. Below the surface, new supply rose in almost two thirds of all local markets, led by a big rebound in Halifax-Dartmouth following a sharp drop in March. This was offset by declines in Greater Vancouver, Victoria, and the Okanagan Region, as well as by a continuing pullback in new supply in Calgary. New listings in Calgary have dropped by a third from their multiyear high at the end of last year to their current multi-year low. The national sales to new listings ratio was 55.3% in April, up from 50.4% three months earlier as the ratio has steadily risen along with sales so far this year. A sales to new listings ratio between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets respectively. The ratio was within this range in the majority of local housing markets in April. The number of months of inventory… Continue reading
US pending home sales reach highest level since June 2013
Pending home sales in the United States in February increased to their highest level since June 2013, according to the latest figures from the National Association of Realtors. Sizeable gains in the Midwest and West offset smaller declines in the Northeast and South and overall demand is increasing as the residential real estate market moves into the spring buying seasons. The NAR pending homes sales index, which is a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 3.1% to 106.9 in February from a slight downward revision of 103.7 in January and is now 12% above February 2014. Indeed, the index is at its highest level since June 2013 when it was 109.4, and has increased year on year for six consecutive months and. It is also above 100, considered an average level of activity, for the tenth consecutive month. ‘Pending sales showed solid gains last month, driven by a steadily improving labour market, mortgage rates hovering around 4% and the likelihood of more renters looking to hedge against increasing rents,’ said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. ‘These factors bode well for the prospect of an uptick in sales in coming months. However, the underlying obstacle, especially for first time buyers, continues to be the depressed level of homes available for sale,’ he added. According to NAR’s monthly confidence index the percent share of first time buyers increased slightly for the first time in February since November 2014, up to 29% from 28% in January. ‘Several markets remain highly-competitive due to supply pressures, and real estate agents are reporting severe shortages of move-in ready and available properties in lower price ranges. The return of first time buyers this year will depend on how quickly inventory shows up in the market,’ Yun explained. The PHSI in the Northeast fell 2.3% in February, but is 4.1% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index leaped 11.6% and is now 13.8% above February 2014. Pending home sales in the South decreased 1.4% but is still 10.8% above last February. The index in the West climbed 6.6%, the highest since June 2013, and is now 18.3% above a year ago. Total existing homes sales in 2015 are forecast to be around 5.25 million, an increase of 6.4% from 2014. The national median existing home price for all of this year is expected to increase around 5.6%. In 2014 existing home sales declined 2.9% and prices rose 5.7%. Continue reading
Confidence in US housing market rises, latest index shows
Confidence in the US residential property market is on the rise, especially among those renting homes, new research shows. More than five million renters say they're likely to buy a home in the next year, according to the latest Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) and overall both renters and home owners expressed more confidence in the housing market this year than last year. Americans are most confident in the housing market in San Jose, Miami and San Francisco while over the last year, confidence rose the most in Dallas, Detroit and St. Louis. Home owners remain more confident than renters, but renter confidence is growing faster than homeowner confidence in 14 of 20 metro areas surveyed. A breakdown of the figures show that more than 12% of current renters nationwide, roughly 5.2 million, said they plan to buy in the next year, an almost 25% jump from the same time last year, when 4.2 million renters said they had plans to buy within 12 months. The ZHCI, sponsored by Zillow and developed by Pulsenomics LLC, polls homeowners and renters about housing market conditions, expectations for the future and their attitudes toward homeownership in general, across 20 of the large metro areas in the United States. Thanks to historically low mortgage interest rates and home values below peak levels, buyers can expect to spend about 15% of their monthly income on a mortgage payment, compared to 22% historically, according to Zillow research. Typical renters should expect to pay 30% of their income to rent, compared to 25% a generation ago. ‘As home affordability continues to look great and rental affordability looks abysmal, many current renters clearly seem to be re-thinking their attitudes toward homeownership, and are expressing more confidence in the overall housing market as a result,’ said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries. ‘But while this confidence is heartening, it's important to inject a note of reality as not all renters who want to buy this year will be successful. Saving a down payment, qualifying for a mortgage and finding an affordable home to buy all remain formidable challenges for many,’ he explained. ‘Among all renters surveyed nationwide, 59.7% said they think buying a home is the best long term investment a person can make, compared to 56.9% at the same time last year. This improved long term outlook was especially evident among younger renters. Among all 18 to 34 year old renters, 66.2% said owning a home was the best long term investment, compared to 61.4% last year. The index is measured on a 100 point scale, with readings more than 50 indicating general confidence. Overall, housing market confidence is rising more quickly among renters than home owners. Among only home owners, headline confidence rose 3.7 points year on year, to 70.6 in January. Among renters only, overall confidence rose 4.4 points in the past year, to 62.4. Confidence among all owners and renters rose 3.6 points, to 67.4. Although survey respondents in most… Continue reading
