Tag Archives: united-states
US housing market set to see strong demand from first time buyers in 2015
The growing gap between housing's low and top tiers in the United States is expected to restore healthy demand for first time buyers and those moving up the housing ladder. 2015 has the promise of a transitional year where full buyer momentum in the low and mid tiers reinforce a strong housing recovery, according to the latest analysis report from Clear Capital. It says that sustained national price growth in the low tier segment, once driven by investor activity, is good news for first time buyers and also encouraging is the number of potential buyers locked into underwater mortgages has been steadily decreasing. The recent rise in home prices continue to bring more home owners out of negative equity and with more equity to play with, mid-tier home owners could move up, creating more opportunity and driving healthy demand in the low and mid tiers of the market. ‘While we are expecting price growth to moderate across all tiers in 2015, the top tier’s quarterly growth rate fell to 0.3% in the fourth quarter, where it had been holding steady at around 1% through the first three quarters of 2014,’ said Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital.. The report shows that year on year this tier experienced the lowest price growth rate of 3.6% among the three national tiers. At its current pace, continued moderation in the top tier could push quarterly price growth into negative territory in 2015. January data also reveals the low tier holding on to double digit gains year on year at 10.2% and healthy quarter on quarter gains of 1.5%. The firm believes that this divide between a healthy low tier and stalling top tier could kick off a domino effect. Stalling prices in the top tier of the market could create the perception of a good deal. This instils confidence in mid-tier home owners, motivating them to move up to the top tier. In turn, this opens up more opportunity for low tier home owners to move up to the mid-tier. Creating new opportunity in the low tier could entice potential first time buyers to enter the market. This domino effect could be the catalyst for balanced demand across all sectors of the market. Regionally, the Midwest continues to lead the growth and year on year held on to double digit gains in the low tier segment at 13.6%, while the top tier fell to 3.3%. This gap between growth in the low and top tiers was also recorded on a quarterly basis, with the low tier growing at 1.7% and relatively flat growth in the top tier at 0.5%. The Midwest led the nation in the all tier segment, with quarter on quarter growth at 0.9%, narrowly edging the West at 0.7%. The Midwest is the only region currently seeing price appreciation in the low and mid tiers, growing concurrently above 1%. The firm explained that a moderating top tier could incentivize… Continue reading
US home sales fall to lowest annual pace for six months, latest data shows
Home sales in the United States have fallen to their lowest annual pace for six months, down 6.1% in November, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. Total sales, excluding new build, reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million in November from a downwardly revised 5.25 million in October but they are still up 2.1% compared to a year ago. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sales activity was choppy throughout the country in November and housing inventory began its seasonal decline. ‘Fewer people bought homes last month despite interest rates being at their lowest levels of the year,’ he pointed out. ‘The stock market swings in October may have impacted some consumers’ psyches and therefore led to fewer November closings. Furthermore, rising home values are causing more investors to retreat from the market,’ he added. But prices are still strong. The median existing home price for all housing types in November was $205,300, 5% above November 2013 and the 33rd consecutive month of year on year price gains. The NAR data also shows that total housing inventory at the end of November fell 6.7% to 2.09 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.1 month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from last month. Despite the tightening in supply, unsold inventory remains 2% higher than a year ago, when there were 2.05 million existing homes available for sale. ‘Lagging home building activity continues to hamstring overall housing supply and is still too low in relation to this year’s promising job growth. Much faster price and rent appreciation, easily exceeding wage growth, will occur next year unless new construction picks up measurably,’ said Yun. All cash sales were 25% of transactions in November, down from 27% in October and below the 32% recorded in November of last year. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 15% of homes in November, unchanged from last month and below November 2013 when it was 19% while 61% of investors paid cash in November. The percent share of first time buyers in November climbed to 31% from 29% in October, the highest share since October 2012 when it was also 31%. First time buyers have represented an average of 29% this year. Distressed sales, that is foreclosures and short sales, were unchanged in November from 9% in October and remained in the single digits for the fourth month this year, well below the 14% of a year ago. Overall 6% of November sales were foreclosures and 3% were short sales. The data shows that foreclosures sold for an average discount of 17% below market value in November compared with 15% in October, while short sales were discounted 13% compared to 10% in October. Properties typically stayed on the market in November for 65 days, slightly longer than the 63 days recorded in October and above the 56 days of… Continue reading
Residential property cash sales in the US falling, latest data shows
Cash sales in the United States made up 34.8% of total home transactions in September 2014, down from 37.2% a year ago, according to the latest data to be published. The year on year share has fallen each month since January 2013, making September the 21st consecutive month of declines, the data from real estate firm Core Logic. Month on month, the cash sales share ticked up by 1%, however, the firm points out that cash sales share comparisons should be made on a year on year basis due to the seasonal nature of the housing market. Prior to the housing crisis, the cash sales share of total home sales averaged approximately 25% with a peak in January 2011 when cash transactions made up 46.4% of total home sales. Real estate owned (REO) sales had the largest cash sales share in September 2014 at 58.1%, followed by re-sales at 34.4%, short sales at 32.4% and newly constructed homes at 16.8%. While the percentage of REO sales that were cash transactions remained high, REO transactions made up only 7.8% of total sales in September and, therefore, did not have a large influence on the overall cash sales share. In January 2011, when the cash sales share was at its peak, REO sales made up 23.9% of total sales. A breakdown of the figures shows that Delaware had the largest share of any state at 57.4%, followed by Florida at 50.8%, Alabama at 49.6%, New York at 44.4% and Idaho at 43.3%. Of the nation's largest 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Florida, had the highest share of cash sales at 56.2%, followed closely by West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, also in Florida at 55.9%. Then came Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, in Florida at 54.8%, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, also in Florida, at 54.7% and Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, in Michigan at 53.1%. The data also shows that Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C. had the lowest cash sales share at 16.2%. Continue reading
