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House prices fell in most regions in France in 2014
House prices in regional France continued to fall in 2014, but there are considerable variations, according to figures from estate agents. The annual review from the FNAIM, the national association of French estate agents, says that house prices fell by an average of 1.5% in 2014, but with significant variations across the country. Picardy led the way with price rises of 3.5%, Lower Normandy saw prices rise by 1.2%, Poitou-Charentes by 1%, Languedoc-Roussillon by 0.9%, Auvergne by 0.8% and Brittany by 0.4%. Elsewhere prices fell, most notably by 5.3% in Nord pas de Calais, by 5.1% in Limousin, by 4.9% in Upper Normandy, by 4.8% in Franche Comte, and by 4.3% in Champagne Ardennes. Although overall the FNAIM report says that activity levels remained broadly the same as that for 2013 at around 720,000 sales, volumes were only maintained due to continued strong activity in the main cities and tourist areas of the country. In many smaller towns and rural areas sales were substantially down. The differences have also deepened between the best and worst properties, with buyers taking their time to find the right property. Properties with substantial defects or other unfavourable characteristics remained unsold. In addition, in the more expensive areas of the country it was smaller properties that sold over larger homes, one reason, it seems, why activity levels were maintained. While the FNAIM data is taken as the most reliable, other national agents have also published annual figures which all show prices falling on a national basis but which differ somewhat on a regional level. Century 21’s annual review put the average fall in property prices at 2.8%. The data shows only one region with rising prices, Limousin with growth of 3.7%. Everywhere else show falling prices, most notably a decline of 7.4% in Languedoc Roussillon, a fall of 7% in Lorraine and 6.7% in Poitou Charentes. According to the Laforet group of estate agents there was a fall of 3% in regional prices outside of Paris with prices down across the board led by a fall of 5.7% in Limousin, 5.4% in Picardy, 5% in Poitou Charentes and 4% in Midi Pyrenees. Such is the lack of alignment in the regional figures between the agents, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that the trend continues downwards. The notaires have yet to publish their analysis of 2014, but for the third quarter the average annualised national price fall was still under 1%. The FNAIM believes that prices will continue to fall this year. It is predicting average falls of between 2% to 3% in 2015 and this in similar to other predictions from individual chains of estate agents. It means that prices are on average at the same levels they were in 2007. But 2015 could see more overseas buyers coming back to the French market, especially as average interest rates are now around 2.5% with some firms predicting they could fall further to 2%, making it cheaper for… Continue reading
London residential property investors looking north for better rental yields
Almost two thirds of buyers of investment property in the North of England are from the South East, with over a third from the Greater London area, new research has found. The study from buy to let specialist Sequre Property Investment, suggests that prices are too high in the south for landlords who may be looking north for bargains. According to the firm they are being enticed out of their own back yard to cities such as Manchester, Liverpool, Preston and Salford by stronger returns and lower entry level prices. Average gross yields of 8% in Manchester compare to 4.5% in London, while a typical two bed investment property costs in the region of £90,000 versus £300,000 in the capital. It also says that speculation of a cooling property market in London and the South East is impacting on investor confidence and driving them to seek alternative locations such as northern cities, where prices have risen at a more sustainable rate and demand from tenants, particularly young professionals, remains strong. The relocation of the BBC and developments such as MediaCityUK have also helped boost the profile of the North and attracted investors from outside the region. Of those London based investors buying in the North, a significant proportion, 42%, are cash buyers. The firm says this is largely due to the lower entry point which means that many investors don't require borrowing. They are keen to de-risk the investment and avoid overleveraging, particularly as many are approaching retirement age and are looking to boost their retirement income One, two and three bedroom buy to let properties in new build developments of up to five years old are most popular, offering a low maintenance and hassle free investment. ‘The buy to let market in the North of England, particularly in hubs such as Manchester and Liverpool, is now being driven largely by money from London and the South East,’ said Graham Davidson, director of Sequre Property Investment. ‘Investors have benefited from huge house price growth in the south over the last few years which has sent the equity in their homes and buy to let portfolios soaring. Now they are seeking new investments which will deliver strong rental returns as well as steady capital growth, at a time when doubt is being cast over the future of the London market,’ he explained. ‘These are mainly professional investors who are comfortable with a 'hands off' approach and are unconcerned about owning property in different locations. It's all about the rental returns and delivering a secure monthly income,’ he added. An example is IT consultant Matthew Earle, 35, who lives in south west London and is currently in the process of adding a number of new investment properties in the north of England to his portfolio. These are spread across northern cities including Manchester, Hull and Sheffield. ‘My main focus is on generating a strong rental income and there's no doubt that yields are much higher in the… Continue reading
London commercial property market expected to see strongest rental growth in 2015
London’s commercial property market experienced the strongest rental growth in 2014 and is expected it to stay in the lead over the next 12 months, according to a new outlook report. The recovery in the UK economy combined with low levels of development means that the balance between demand and supply is now swinging in favour of landlords, the report from Schroders also says. Risks to the positive outlook include the possibility that UK economic growth is much weaker than forecast, so that the upswing in rents stalls rather than accelerates. ‘While rental growth outside London is patchier, some regional markets are definitely coming out of hibernation. Given a reasonably high yield and a further rental growth as the economy improves, we expect that next year will see another solid performance from UK commercial real estate,’ said the firm’s head of real estate Duncan Owen. The report says that 2014 has been a good year for UK commercial real estate and unleveraged total returns are likely to be close to 20%. Most of this year’s performance has been driven by a favourable fall in property yields, as investors seek income. ‘Looking ahead to 2015 we expect that total returns will remain in double figures, but that rental growth will make a larger contribution. The recovery in the economy combined with low levels of development means that the balance between demand and supply is now swinging in favour of landlords and we anticipate that rental growth will accelerate,’ explained Owen. In the office sector, the emergence of central London as a powerhouse for international accountancy, law, media and technology companies has pushed vacancy rates back down to pre-crisis levels, not just in the prime locations of the City and West End, but also in less established areas such as Farringdon, Kings Cross and the South Bank, the outlook explains. ‘In previous cycles this squeeze on space and upswing in rents would have triggered a big increase in development and encouraged companies to move to cheaper offices in outer London, or other cities. However, so far we have seen relatively little new office building in central London, partly because stricter capital adequacy rules mean that banks are now less willing to fund projects and partly because competing residential schemes are often more profitable,’ Owen pointed out. ‘Moreover, central London now has such a deep pool of highly qualified labour that some companies are even re-locating to the centre from outer London or the wider South East, even though rents and business rates are more expensive,’ he added. Similarly, the report says that retail rents in many parts of London are rising on the back of strong population growth. There are also an increasing numbers of young professionals who choose to live in inner London rather than copy their parents and move to the suburbs. This is leading to the rapid gentrification of areas such as Brixton, Hackney and New Cross which were previously relatively poor. While rental… Continue reading
