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Development land prices fall in England apart from in key regional cities
Development land prices for greenfield land in England dipped in 2015, while prices in prime central London remained broadly flat, but urban brownfield site values, particularly in key regional cities, rose strongly during the year. After rising by 50% in the four years to September 2015, prime central London development land prices are starting to ease, falling by 2.7% over the last six months, according to the residential land development index from Knight Frank. It means that development land prices in the prime central London market has dipped for two quarters in a row while values for greenfield land overall in England are down for the fifth consecutive quarter. Greenfield development land values fell by 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2015 and 4.9% year on year while prime central London land prices remained broadly flat in 2015. Urban development land prices, however, bucked the trend, rising by 2.5% in the final three months of 2015. The development land index, based on the valuations of actual development sites around the country, shows a multi speed land market. Prices of mainly brownfield land in key cities, including outer London, Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham and Bristol led the urban growth. A 2.5% increase in the final three months of the year took annual growth for urban development land sites to 11.9% and according to Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank this reflects the highly regionalised nature of the housing market at present, with price performance in many key cities and commuter towns outperforming the wider average. ‘The price growth differential also reflects the strengthening appetite for land among developers and housebuilders in regional hubs. This demand has picked up significant momentum in the last 12 months, lagging the pick-up in demand seen in the wider greenfield market two years ago,’ she explained. She also pointed out that house builders active in the greenfield market have largely replenished their pipeline land supplies, although they are still active in the market for smaller, oven ready sites. ‘The length of the planning process means that taking on large speculative schemes is hard to balance against the cost of capital involved in doing so. At the same time, developers are operating in a period of higher build costs, and a key part of this is the difficulty in accessing skilled labour which still remains in short supply,’ Gilmore said. ‘On the other hand, better local economic growth in key regional cities, coupled with more buyer confidence has resulted in a resurgence of development, and this is reflected in competition for good brownfield sites,’ she added. Focusing on prime central London, the data shows that land prices dipped by 1.1% in the final quarter of the year, resulting in a marginal decline in prices of 0.2% over the course of the year. This echoes the slowing of price growth in this central area of London, with prime property prices rising by 1% over the year to the… Continue reading
Scottish property market set to see annual growth of 3% in 2016
The overall residential market in Scotland has shown continued growth, with an 8% annual increase in the number of residential transactions during the year ending in the first quarter of 2016. The market was supported by an increase in cash buyers and buy to let purchasers, boosted by increased levels of equity generated from core hotspots, particularly among older buyers, according to the latest analysis report from Savills. It also says that various Help to Buy schemes and the gently improving economy, leading to increased consumer confidence, are also combining to support the market. Market growth is continuing to spread out to locations that were lagging following the housing market downturn. These include West Lothian, East Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire and Glasgow City, where the annual growth in transactions was higher than the figure for Scotland as a whole. The report says that this is mainly due to an increase in house building, coupled with attainable house prices and improving transport links. Annual transactional growth in traditional hotspots and commuter locations, such as Renfrewshire, East Lothian and Midlothian, as well as the market hub of Edinburgh, also exceeded the figure for Scotland as a whole. Savills is forecasting annual growth of 3% in Scottish mainstream values by the end of 2016. ‘We expect values in city locations and core hotspots to outperform the figure for Scotland as a whole. Stricter lending conditions and a possible rise in mortgage rates could limit capacity for strong price growth and transactional growth. This is likely to keep exposure to risky mortgage debt under control,’ it explains. In the prime market Scotland’s Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) continues to have a significant impact following its introduction in April 2015. Over the last 12 months, the prime market above £400,000 witnessed an overall shortfall in activity, mainly due to higher rates of taxation. However, since the end of 2015, the prime market has adjusted in the city hubs of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Furthermore, prime market strength is spreading from the hubs into traditional suburbs and commuter areas The number of prime second hand sales at £400,000 and above in Scotland fell annually by 14% to 3,131 during the year ending in the first quarter of 2016 as the market continues to adjust to higher rates of taxation. Despite this drop, prime activity was 13% higher than the five-year annual average of 2,762 sales. The prime market was led by the core city hotspots of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Prime activity in Stirlingshire and the Lothians region surrounding Edinburgh bucked the national trend, benefitting from relative affordability and improving transport links. Furthermore, demand for family homes in areas with top performing state schools remains buoyant. According to Savills Prime Residential Index, overall values in Scotland remained unchanged, with a slight 0.4% year on year increase at the end of March 2016. Further examination of the Savills Index shows a widening gap between overall property values in city and town… Continue reading
Property growth sluggish in the US, latest index data suggests
National property growth in the United States increased by a moderate 0.6% quarter on quarter but values are barely rising with variations according to location. The home data index from Clear Capital shows that in the Northeast and Midwest regional quarterly growth rates were sluggish at only 0.2% while the South saw a 0.7% rise. These rates come with little to no change from the previously reported quarterly growth rates, all within 0.1% of the figures from the previous month. The firm believes that the current picture is being led by the West where sales have increased 0.3% from 0.9% to 1.2% in a month and it says that this momentum shift is setting the pattern for another strong summer growth season as the region begins to dominate regional performance once again. The continued dominance of the West is easy to see on the firm’s list of Highest Performing Major Metro Markets, where nine of the current top 15 are in the West. Seattle continues to lead the nation with 2% growth over the last quarter, an increase of 0.2% since the previous index, while quarterly growth in Sacramento increased 0.3% to 1.5% quarter on quarter and the rest of the Western top markets all reported at least 1.2% growth over the last quarter. However, the condition of each individual market in the region is varied. Portland, San Jose, and Denver have all surpassed their previous peak market values from before the crash, with Seattle fast approaching its own benchmark. However, homes in Las Vegas are fetching just over half of peak market values from 10 years ago. The index report also points out that the current distressed property saturation rates in cities like Sacramento and San Diego have improved by 50% or more, illustrating a drastic improvement in the overall health of the market, and yet both markets have quite a way to go to recovering all market value lost during the crash. ‘Real estate market headlines have repeatedly documented the strong, potentially bubble like recovery of the West over the past couple years, and this continued trend of performance doesn’t appear to be going away just yet,’ said Alex Villacorta, vice president for research and analytics at Clear Capital. ‘However, it’s important to remember just how varied the standing of each of these Western metro’s recoveries remains. While the West as a whole has seen incredible performance since the lows of 2011, comparisons between individual markets like Denver and Las Vegas can be a sobering reminder of the devastating effects of the crash and that some markets still have a long way to go in terms of regaining lost value,’ he explained. ‘Conversely, those markets that are reaching new market highs are worth keeping a close eye on since the speed at which those recoveries have occurred is clearly unsustainable in the long term,’ he added. Continue reading
