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Home lending in Scotland up in 2015, but tailed off at end of year

More first time buyers took out a loan for a home in Scotland in 2015 than in any year since 2008, the latest data shows. Home owner house purchase lending in the fourth quarter of 2015 totalled 17,200 loans, down 4% on the third quarter but up 14% in the fourth quarter 2014, according to the figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. A breakdown of the figures shows that first time buyers took out 8,000 loans, 2% down on the previous quarter but up 14% on the last quarter of 2014. They borrowed £870 million, down 2% on the previous quarter but up 14% on the fourth quarter 2014. Home mover lending totalled £1.4 billion, down 4% on the previous quarter but up 18% on the fourth quarter 2014. The number of loans in the period was 9,200, down 5% quarter on quarter but up 14% on year on year while remortgage lending went up by volume quarter on quarter and year on year. Annual home owner house purchase lending in Scotland totalled 64,800 loans, up 9% on 2014. This came to £8.5 billion, up 14% on 2014. First time buyers took out 30,000 loans worth £3.3 billion, up 8% by volume and 12% by value, on the previous year. Meanwhile, home movers took out 34,800 loans worth £5.2 billion, up 9% by volume and 15% by value, compared to 2014 while remortgage lending came to £3.1 billion, up 18% on 2014. This totalled 26,200 loans, up 12% on the previous year. ‘The sustained year on year growth in house purchase lending seen since 2012 continued in Scotland this quarter,’ said Linda Docherty, CML chair for Scotland. ‘This meant more first time buyers and home movers in 2015 took out a loan to purchase a home than in any year since 2008. With an economic climate of low interest rates and competitive mortgage deals, we would expect this growth in the Scottish market to continue into 2016,’ she added. Continue reading

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Supply of homes to rent falls in UK as demand rises

The supply of rental accommodation in the UK is the lowest since records began a year ago, while demand for accommodation rose slightly in January 2015, the latest data shows. After a period of gentle decline, the number of properties registered per letting agent branch dropped by 5% to 172 in January, some 10 fewer than in December, according to the report from the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA). A breakdown of the figures shows that supply in Scotland stands above the national average, with 280 properties available per member branch, while the supply of rental properties in London is 59% with only 116 properties per branch. However, London has seen a slight increase in the number of properties available over the last month, rising from 108 in December 2015. Demand for rental accommodation picked up in January following a seasonal lull in December, with an average of 31 prospective tenants now registered per branch. However, it has not returned to the high levels reported in January and February last year, when there were 38 and 40 tenants registered per branch respectively. In line with growing demand, the number of agents reporting rent increases for tenants increased in January, with 30% reporting an increase in rent, the highest since September 2015. ‘Supply of housing continues to be a problem and tenants bear the brunt of this with more people competing for properties at higher prices. The majority of tenants find that it is impossible to save very much at the end of the month to put towards buying their own home,’ said David Cox, ARLA managing director. He pointed out that ARLA’s recent Cost of Renting report found that a fifth of those renting in the UK do not expect to ever be able to afford to buy a home, and unless we act soon to build more properties, this number will only get higher. The report also reveals that 63% of ARLA members think the Chancellor’s stamp duty reforms for buy to let properties will push landlords out of the market, which will in turn cause supply to drop further and 58% believe the reforms will push up rent costs. However, 47% of ARLA agents reported that they have seen an uplift in interest from buyers looking to invest in buy to let properties before the 01 April, a rise from 24% from last month. ‘A few weeks into the new year and the April deadline for the stamp duty surcharge is looming and interest from buyers looking to invest in buy to let properties and beat the deadline is ramping up,’ said Cox. ‘The final details of the new tax will be revealed at the Budget in March but we are not expecting to see the Government back down on this policy. The findings from our members echo our concerns that efforts to penalise… Continue reading

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Urban development land outperforms greenfield in the UK

Urban development land values across the UK have continued to increase more than those for greenfield land, according to the latest research. Urban land values increased by 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015, up from 0.2% in the third quarter, taking annual growth to 7.1% while greenfield land values increased by 0.7%, up from a fall of 0.1% in the previous quarter and year on year by 2%. The latest residential development report from real estate firm Savills says that the increase in urban land values reflects a rise in demand due to an improved economy, stronger markets and increased viability. Additionally, the report says that urban values have greater scope to increase than greenfield values because they are further below their 2007 peak, an average of 42% below peak compared to 21% below peak for greenfield land. In general, development land values are linked to the supply of land and the demand from developers. The largely stable values of development land are in part due to the increase in supply of new permissions with the annualised number of planning permissions in Great Britain up by 21% in between 2010 and 2015. And it adds that a lack of new players in the market and 46% fewer house builders registered with NHBC in 2015 compared to 2005 has reduced competition for sites. Savills agents report that there is increasing demand for land in urban locations close to good transport links on which, more commonly, apartments are built such as Birmingham and Coventry in the Midlands. This is reflected in the shift in the type of new homes built. Between 2008 and 2014 houses accounted for an increasing proportion of new build homes, however, since March 2014 this trend has been reversed and we are seeing flats accounting for higher proportions of delivery at 35% in the year to March 2015 up from 29% the previous year according to data from the Department of Communities and Local Government. The report explains that the change in type of home being built reflects the improving viability and ability to finance denser sites. Immediately following the economic downturn, housebuilders focused more on developing houses because they require less upfront capital, can be built one at a time and sold as they are finished. However, now that market strength is picking up, there is greater appetite to take on the risk required to build a block of apartments where, apart from off-plan sales, flats are sold only when the whole block is complete. But not everywhere is seeing growth. For example, sentiment for development land in Aberdeen has become less positive and has impacted negatively on the overall Scottish greenfield development land index which was down 0.5% in the final quarter of 2015. Indeed, land values in Aberdeen have fallen 2.9% in the year to quarter four of 2015 for greenfield land and this is due to the continued low oil price and uncertainty over the future of the… Continue reading

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