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UK new house building target not over ambitious, analysis suggests
The UK Government’s target of building a million new homes over the next few years is not as ambitious as some may think, according to a new analysis from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The individual components of the goal includes 200,000 Starter Homes, an initiative still working its way through parliament, and 135,000 shared ownership properties about which little has been said to date. Trying to access the success of such a programme it about the official data on housing starts, according to RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn, and these show that a mere 144,000 new units were begun through the course of 2015. But he points out that other data produced by the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) casts some doubt on the accuracy of the quarterly figures which are produced on a high frequency basis and released within a short period following the end of the quarter. He explains that there is arguably more value to be gained by focusing on the less frequently released net supply numbers, which are based on completions rather than starts, as they reflect the additions to the stock of housing units for habitation. The quarterly completions series showed an additional 125,000 homes built in 2014/2015, the last full year for which data is available, while the annual net supply series puts completions at 155,000. Rubinsohn adds that net conversions added close to nearly 5,000 additional units over the period and this was supplemented more than 20,000 units from ‘change of use’. The latter figure has increased sharply over the past few years as a result of Permitted Developments Rights enabling the shift from office class to residential. And then demolitions amounted to just over 10,500 in 2014/2015. ‘So pulling this altogether, in the last financial year, there may have been 125,000 housing completions in England, 155,000, just over 180,000 or, after demolitions, 170,000. And on the basis of the higher number (gross additions to supply), the government doesn’t appear that far off its ambition for 2020,’ Rubinsohn argues. ‘None of this is designed to minimise the fundamental nature of the housing crisis which reflects the fact that household formation is still projected to comfortably outstrip projections for the supply of new units even on the most generous calculations,’ he says. ‘This is also clearly visible in the estimates by our professionals for medium term growth in house prices and rents. The February Residential Market Survey suggested both are likely to increase by at least another fifth over the next five years comfortably outstripping the probable rise in wages,’ he adds. Continue reading
Property price growth eases in Australian capital cities
The rate of residential property price growth in capital cities in Australia eased during the final quarter of 2015, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The annual growth rate of home prices across Australia’s eight capital cities eased to 8.7% in the final quarter of 2015, driven in part by a deceleration of Sydney dwelling price growth. A breakdown of the data shows that year on year price growth remained strongest in Sydney with prices up 13.9%, followed by Melbourne with growth of 9.6% and Canberra with prices up 6%. In Brisbane prices increased by 4.2%, by 3.5% in Hobart and by 3.3% in Adelaide but prices fell by 3.2% in Darwin and were down by 2.9% in Perth. ‘From an affordability perspective, the slowdown in dwelling price growth to a more sustainable pace is a welcome development,’ said Shane Garrett, senior economist for the Housing Industry Association. He also pointed out that the quarter saw a narrowing of the gap between the capital cities in terms of price growth whereas in previous quarters, the divergence in the pace of price growth from city to city was very large. ‘During 2015, a record 220,000 new dwellings commenced construction across Australia. The additional supply is playing an important role in containing the severe price pressures in markets like Sydney and Melbourne,’ Garrett explained. ‘Ensuring an adequate supply of new housing in the future requires root and branch reform in areas like planning, land supply and the taxation burden on residential building,’ he added. Continue reading
Estate agent figures confirm rush of buy to let buyers
Figures from estate agents confirm that there has been a rush from buy to let investors ahead of the new stamp duty deadline for additional homes in the UK. In February some 85% of estate agents reported an increase in the number of buy to let investors flooding the market to beat the stamp duty changes which come into effect on 01 April, according to the latest housing report from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA). The Chancellor’s announcement around stamp duty for additional homes made in last year’s Autumn Statement meant that in January and February this year 72% and 85% of agents respectively, saw an increase in interest from those hoping to purchase second homes. This meant that with added pressure from buy to let investors on the market, demand for housing was the highest level for 12 years in February. Indeed, the data shows that there were an average 463 house hunters registered per member branch, the highest since August 2004 when 582 were registered per branch. This is following an increase in January when estate agents reported 453 per branch, the highest since July 2015. The number of properties available per branch increased marginally from 33 in January to 35 in February, as the number of sales agreed per branch in February increased too. There were an average nine sales completed in February, back to the level seen in October 2015 and a rise from eight sales agreed per branch in January. The report also shows that 24% of total sales made in February were to first time buyers, a decrease of 5% points from January, as mounting pressure from buy to let investors increased competition. ‘It is evident from February’s report findings that we’ve seen a real sense of urgency from landlords trying to complete on sales ahead of the stamp duty reforms,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. ‘However, the mounting pressure and increased demand for housing has meant that first time buyers have had to compete with landlords for property and as a result they have lost out,’ he pointed out. ‘We would like to say that come April things will look better for first time buyers. Schemes like the Help to Buy ISA, Help-to-Buy scheme and the new Lifetime ISA all sound great on paper, and there’s no doubt that some young people will definitely benefit from them,’ he explained. ‘But the crux of the problem though is that there is still a huge issue with supply and until we build more homes, and crucially the right sort of homes, we cannot fool ourselves into thinking we are doing enough to help people buy their own home,’ he added. Continue reading
