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UK first time buyer home market resilient in first months of 2016
First time buyers in the UK are resilient despite a month on month dip in property sales to this group, according to the latest first time buyer tracker index. It shows that people buying their first home increased by 6.6% year on year but month on month fell by 1.4% between January and February 2016. The data from Your Move and Reeds Rains also shows that total monthly volume of first time buyer transactions was 21,100 in February but on a seasonally adjusted basis it is considerably higher at 25,900. According to Adrian Gill, director of estate agents Your Move and Reeds Rains, February is a traditionally quiet period for the first time buyer market but the figures demonstrate the strong, steady underlying growth that comes with growing first time buyer confidence. ‘This optimism may begin to reveal itself more clearly in March, when an Easter uplift may sweep away any residual doubts among some first timers. While the more general mismatch between buyers and sellers will continue to exert upwards pressure on prices, a combination of pluck and poise from first time buyers will ensure that this does little to impact the overall trend of growing demand at this end of the market,’ he explained. The figures also show that the costs of buying and owning a first home have remained broadly stable in February, with lower borrowing costs balancing larger prices and deposits. Average mortgage rates for first time buyers have improved, down 0.56% on a 12 month basis and by a much slighter 0.03% between January and February 2016. February’s average mortgage rate also represents the lowest mortgage rate for first time buyers in over five years. Similarly, the average LTV ratio remains high, meaning first time buyers have been able to borrow more against the value of the home they wish to purchase. February’s average loan to LTVs recorded in 2014/2015 and represents only a 0.1% fall on February 2015. While first time buyer property prices have risen significantly on an annual basis, mortgage lending levels have kept pace. In February, the average purchase price for a first time buyer home stood at £168,539, an increase of £21,320 or 14.5%, on February 2015’s average of £147,219. However, over the same 12 month period, the average size of a first time mortgage grew from £121,534 to £139,088, an increase of 14.4%. Larger deposit costs represent the other side to this balance of affordability, the report points out. In February the average deposit put down by a first time buyer stood at £29,451, an increase of 14.7% or £3,766, on an annual basis. The report suggests that this uptick has been a factor in the growing proportion of first time buyer income which is consumed by deposit costs. In November 2015, a deposit ate up 67.4% of an average first time buyer’s annual income, whereas in February of this year the average deposit consumed, on average 74.9% of their income. However,… Continue reading
Pending home sales in the United States up solidly in February
Pending home sales in the United States rose solidly in February to their highest level in seven months and remain higher than a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Led by a sizeable increase in the Midwest, all major regions except for the Northeast saw an increase in contract activity in February, the date from the forward looking index based on contract signings show. Overall the index rose 3.5% to 109.1 in February from a downwardly revised 105.4 in January and is now 0.7% above February 2015. Although the index has now increased year on year for 18 consecutive months, last month's annual gain was the smallest. ‘After some volatility this winter, the latest data is encouraging in that a decent number of buyers signed contracts last month, lured by mortgage rates dipping to their lowest levels in nearly a year1 and a modest, seasonal uptick in inventory,’ said Lawrence Yun, NAR economist. ‘Looking ahead, the key for sustained momentum and more sales than last spring is a continuous stream of new listings quickly replacing what's being scooped up by a growing pool of buyers. Without adequate supply, sales will likely plateau,’ he added. According to Yun, the one silver lining from last month's noticeable slump in existing home sales was that price appreciation lessened to 4.4% which is still above wage growth but certainly more favourable than the 8.1% annual increase in January. ‘Any further moderation in prices would be a welcome development this spring. Particularly in the West, where it appears a segment of would be buyers are becoming wary of high asking prices and stiff competition,’ Yun pointed out. Existing homes sales this year are forecast to be around 5.38 million, an increase of 2.4% from 2015. The national median existing home price for all of this year is expected to increase between 4% and 5%. In 2015, existing home sales increased 6.3% and prices rose 6.8%. A breakdown of the figures show that the index in the Northeast declined 0.2% to 94 in February but is still 12.6% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index shot up 11.4% to 112.6 in February and is now 2.5% above February 2015. Pending home sales in the South increased 2.1% to an index of 122.4 in February but are 0.4% lower than last February. The index in the West climbed 0.7% in February to 96.4, but is now 6.2% below a year ago. Continue reading
UK buy to let landlords face tougher lending rules
Some buy to let landlords in the UK face tougher regulation when it comes to getting a mortgage for expanding their portfolio, the Bank of England has announced. In what may be seen as another blow to the buy to let market but the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) says that some lenders are applying ‘weaker’ standards when it comes to applications in this sector. The FPC also believes that the rapid rise in buy to let lending, while likely to slow when the new stamp duty levy comes into play on 01 April, the sector is still not without potential threats in terms of financial stability. So there will be stricter affordability checks. Landlords with four or more properties will be expected to declare the rental income they expect to receive from tenants and also their own income and spending habits. This is to ensure they can still afford the mortgage if a tenant defaults on their rent or the property is left vacant. Landlords will also have to prove they can cope if interest rates rise sharply and can afford all the costs associated with renting out a property. This includes tax, which will rise on buy to let properties from next year. ‘The FPC remains alert to potential threats to financial stability from rapid growth in buy to let mortgage lending,’ the statement says, showing that the outstanding stock of buy to let mortgages has risen by 11.5% in the year to the fourth quarter of 2015. ‘The macro prudential risks centre on the possibility that buy to let investors could behave pro-cyclically, amplifying cycles in the housing market, as well as affecting the resilience of the banking system and its capacity to sustain lending to the wider real economy in a stress,’ the FPC explains. ‘The FPC welcomes and supports the Supervisory Statement issued by the Board of the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) to clarify its expectations for underwriting standards in this market, including guidelines for testing the affordability of interest payments,’ it points out. ‘The PRA's review of lenders' plans revealed that some lenders are applying standards that are somewhat weaker than those prevailing in the market as a whole. The PRA's action is a prudent supervisory measure intended to bring all lenders up to prevailing market standards. It will guard against any slipping of underwriting standards during a period in which rapid growth plans could be challenged by the impact of forthcoming tax changes,’ it adds. The FPC statement also points out that the growth of buy to let mortgage lending is likely to slow in the second quarter of this year as changes to stamp duty take effect and that forthcoming changes to mortgage interest tax relief and the implementation of the PRA Supervisory Statement will probably dampen growth further. ‘The FPC will continue to monitor closely these developments and potential threats to financial stability from the buy to let mortgage market,’ it adds. The… Continue reading
