Tag Archives: sales
Shortage of up supply pushing up UK house prices
House prices are continuing to rise across the UK driven by an ongoing shortage of new properties coming on to the market, according to the latest monthly survey report. The report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors also shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in East Anglia, the South East and the East Midlands. However, in London the rate of price growth is slowing for the fourth consecutive month. Driving the rise in prices, the number of new properties coming on the market fell for the tenth consecutive month. In November 8% more respondents reported a decrease in new homes coming on to the market. The report points out that this is a trend that has persisted since the beginning of 2014. On average over the past six months buyer demand has outpaced supply across all regions. Indeed, the number of properties on surveyor’s books reached a new low in November. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the lack of stock is holding back transaction levels and agreed sales were flat in November across the UK as a whole. Last year’s stamp duty changes are also mentioned as holding back the prime market in some areas of the UK, most notably London and the South East. Although supply is currently holding back sales, respondents across the UK are positive on the outlook for the coming months, with 47% more chartered surveyors expecting to see a rise rather than a fall in activity, up from 34% in October and is the highest reading for nearly two years. ‘This is likely to be the result of new housing policies announced in this year’s Autumn Statement. New Help to Buy and Starter Homes initiatives, aimed at increasing access to home ownership, are likely to result in increased sales over the coming months,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. However, the view is still that price levels will continue to rise perhaps signalling the view from respondents that although new house building is expected to increase the belief is that this will not be enough to take the market back to more sustainable levels,’ he explained. ‘As other changes in the Autumn statement perhaps start to influence the market, although buyer demand increased on a national level at a subdued pace, London and East Anglia both saw a decline in demand with 5% more respondents seeing a fall rather than rise in the capital, and 16% more seeing a fall rather than rise in the East,’ he pointed out. He believes that this may suggest that the timing of Help to Buy may be causing some buyers to hold back and this is borne out by the sales expectations in London over the next three months, with 49% more chartered surveyors expecting a rise this is the strongest reading in the UK. ‘I can’t recall a set of comments in the residential survey which have so frequently drawn attention to lack of stock on the… Continue reading
Uncertainty in financial services sector affecting prime London rental values
Rental values in prime central London declined for the second month in a row in November against the background of continued uncertainty in the financial services sector and a seasonal end of year decline in demand. Values fell 0.3%, which meant annual rental value growth dipped to 1.2%, which is the lowest level since August 2014, while rental yields were flat at 2.95%, according to the latest report from real estate firm Knight Frank. It follows a peak of 4.2% in May this year as a degree of demand moved across from the sales market due to uncertainty over taxation and the general election. ‘Since then, nervousness surrounding global economic events including the slowdown in China means that many companies have reigned in relocation budgets and many banks continue to cut headcount as part of restructuring plans,’ said Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank. ‘Furthermore, stock levels have risen as more owners adopt a wait and see approach to pricing trends in the sales market, which has tipped the balance in the favour of tenants and put downwards pressure on rents,’ he pointed out. ‘The result is that the number of tenancies started has dropped since 2014, though remains above the level two years ago. Demand, in the shape of new prospective tenants and viewings, is also down compared to what was a relatively strong 2014, though both remain above 2013 levels,’ he added. He also pointed out that demand remains strong in lower price brackets and at the super prime level of above £5,000 per week amid uncertainty around taxation including recent changes for buy to let investors and second home purchases. ‘The result is a three speed market where demand is stronger in higher and lower price brackets than it is in the middle,’ Bill explained. ‘The changes announced by Chancellor George Osborne mean that buy to let investors and those purchasing second homes will be subject to an extra 3% on the rate of stamp duty from April 2016, which could lead to fewer rental properties, which would put upwards pressure on rental values,’ he added. Continue reading
UK house price growth set to slow in 2016, latest outlook report suggests
House prices in the UK are expected to see growth slow to 4% to 6% due to the increasing difficulty in getting on the housing ladder, together with the prospect of an interest rate rise, according to a new report. The forecast from lender the Halifax comes after a year when activity levels have remained modest by historical standards. A shortage of supply is likely to continue to act as a significant constraint on activity in 2016, it says in its outlook report. Price growth is expected to slow more sharply in London than elsewhere but all regions are expected to experience price rises in 2016 which will be broadly in line with income growth. The report points out that levels of house building remain low, but improvements are expected over the medium term and this would help to bring demand and supply into better balance, helping to constrain upward pressure on house prices. ‘There is little reason to expect any fundamental shift in the key market drivers in the immediate future. As a result, the substantial imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist, maintaining upward pressure on house prices in 2016,’ said Halifax’s housing economist, Martin Ellis. ‘On average, UK house prices look expensive compared to incomes but valuations are supported by the low levels of property for sale, low levels of house building, and exceptionally low interest rates,’ he explained. ‘Nonetheless, with house prices continuing to increase more quickly than average earnings, it is increasingly difficult to get on the housing ladder. This ongoing development, combined with the growing prospect of an interest rate rise, should start to put the brakes on house price growth during the course of 2016,’ he pointed out. ‘A continuing shortage of supply is likely to continue to act as a significant constraint on activity over the coming year. Sales in 2016 are expected to be modestly higher than this year, but to remain well below the peak of 1.6 million in 2006,’ he added. The report points out that house price growth has been robust throughout 2015. The quarterly rate of increase was 2.8% in October, according to the latest figures, a little above the 2.5% average over the first nine months of the year. The annual rate stood at 9.7% in October, the highest annual rate since August 2014 when it was 9.7%, with the annual rate in a narrow band between 8% and 10% all year. ‘Improving economic conditions with continuing growth and rising employment and strengthening household finances, assisted by increasing real earnings for the first time for several years, have boosted housing demand during 2015. This has been supported further by very low mortgage rates which have fallen over the year,’ Ellis explained. ‘Strengthening demand has combined with very low supply, both in terms of new build and second hand properties for sale, to drive strong underlying house price growth. New instructions by home sellers declined in October for the ninth… Continue reading
