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Property price growth in UK set to fall to 5.7% by end of 2016 and 2.2% in 2017
Residential property price growth in the UK will half in the rest of 2016 but house prices are set to by 5.7% over the whole of the year, a new analysis suggests. The fall in growth in the rest of the year will largely be due to the rush of buyers looking to beat April’s stamp duty surcharge having pushed prices up in the middle of the year and Brexit uncertainty now impacting the market. According to the analysis from economic forecaster the Centre of Economics and Business Research (Cebr) London will be most impacted by Brexit uncertainty. Average house price in the capital is expected to increase by 8% in 2016, but fall 5.6% the following year, it predicts. The report suggest that in the medium and long term housing market performance will heavily depend on the economic and immigration policies agreed during the UK’s exit negotiations with the European Union. It points out that average prices increased by 8% year on year in the first quarter of the year so a slowdown will materialise in the second half of the year. As a result of Brexit, Cebr has downgraded its short term house price expectations and now expects prices to grow by just 2.2% over 2017 but expects a smaller impact further down the line. In the medium term Cebr expects house price growth to pick up as exit negotiations with the EU progress and investors and households gain clarity on how post-Brexit UK will look. This expectation is in line with Cebr’s central view of the upcoming post-Brexit negotiations progressing relatively smoothly with the ultimate outcome seeing the UK maintain a close economic relationship with the rest of the continent, without necessarily agreeing to an unrestricted flow of labour or goods and services. The report also says that beyond 2020/2021, housing market developments will depend heavily on the immigration and economic policies the UK negotiates with the EU and the rest of the world. And it explains that although Brexit does have a far reaching impact on housing, it is important to keep in mind that the property market was losing steam even before the referendum. In April, the stamp duty surcharge on second homes was introduced and this is on top of reductions in buy to let tax relief that were announced in the July 2015 Budget. Furthermore, in London, the prime end of the market was showing cracks well before the referendum vote on June 23rd. Also, some of the global regions that many of London’s non-UK buyers come from such as Russia and the Middle East are experiencing economic turmoil and are not as able to invest. ‘Although Brexit has certainly sent shockwaves Cebr expects the housing market to slow down but not plummet. Years of under building mean that demand would have to fall very dramatically to… Continue reading
Should be business as usual for Brits buying property in the EU
British people seeking to buy a property in the European Union should not be downhearted by the referendum decision that the UK should leave, according to overseas real estate experts. Those who are looking to purchase a holiday home overseas, for example, are likely to see that owning a property in the EU will only be marginally more complex than it is currently, according to Andy Bridge, managing director of A Place in the Sun. He pointed out that citizens of the United States, Canada, Russia and many other nationalities own properties throughout Europe, so while it may become slightly more complex for British buyers than currently, they are not going to be prevented from owning property in Europe. Erna Low Property, French Alpine property specialists located in London and in the French ski resort of Les Arcs 1950, say that buyers must resist the urge to panic as there will be no change to buyers conditions and they state that right now buyers should focus on risk assessment and limitation of potential future damage. ‘We are sure that there will be no change in buying costs for those looking to buy property in France, and there are no planned changes in taxations for the income made from property rentals, as well as no difference in capital gain tax as since January 2015 a single rate was applied for EU and Non-EU members,’ said director Francois Marchand. ‘In time, UK residents might be limited regarding the amount of GBP investments and the amount of wealth that can be sent abroad when a new government is in. A safe investment risk strategy has always been to diversify your portfolio. It will make no difference for our clients investing in a French property whether they have bought, are planning to buy, or are currently in the process of buying a property in France. The mountains were there before EU existed, and will be there tomorrow to welcome any international property investors, part of the EU or not,’ he added. However, Alejandra Vanoli, managing director of Mallorca Sotheby's International Realty, believes that the real impact Brexit will have on European property markets will be hard to determine until the negotiations between the UK and the EU are finalised. ‘This of course will be most prevalent in the Spanish market due to the high concentration of British expats. However, these changes will undoubtedly need some time to take effect. Despite this, the Balearics are still a very attractive second home destination to British buyers due to our short flight time from the UK, secure lifestyle, warm climate and favourable legal framework for expats looking to invest in the property market,’ he said. One possible effect is that prices could rise in popular locations if real estate investors move away from the UK to other EU countries to buy property. Camille Letuve Partner of Athena Advisers said that some foreign investors might turn away from London… Continue reading
Demand for prime property in central London slows after stamp duty change
Demand for property in London's most prestigious locations has fallen a few weeks after a new stamp duty charge of 3% was introduced on buy to let and second homes, new research shows. Property demand in the prime central London sector is at just 10% on average, having fallen 23% since the new surcharge was introduced, according to the PCL index from fixed fee estate agent eMoov. It is now at its lowest since the firm began recording its data over a year ago in the index which records the change in supply and demand for property above £1 million across London's most prestigious areas, by monitoring the total number of properties sold in comparison to those on sale. On the run up to the stamp duty deadline eMoov found that the rush to complete had revived the capital's top end market, with demand bucking the prime central London’s downward spiral and increasing for the first time since May last year. However, it seems that this resurrection was short lived as just one month since stamp duty deadline day, demand has plummeted to its lowest level on record. In fact, just one area across the prime central London market has maintained March's upward trend of demand growth. Fitzrovia is the only locations where demand hasn't dropped or remained static since March. Year on year the area is joined by Belsize Park, Maida Vale, Primrose Hill, Holland Park and Marylebone as the only other areas to have seen a positive movement in property demand since May last year. Where current demand levels are concerned, Islington is the most in demand area at present, with demand at 21% followed by Belsize Park at 19%, Chiswick at 18%, Maida Vale at 16% and Notting Hill at 12%. At the other end, at 4%, St Johns Wood and Mayfair are not only the coldest spots in prime central London but are suffering from some of the lowest demand levels recorded. ‘It's now abundantly clear that the brief resurrection of London's prime central London market witnessed in March, was an artificial skew as many scrambled to complete a sale before April's stamp duty deadline,’ said eMoov chief executive officer Russell Quirk. ‘It seems the extra 3% levy has slowed London's top end market and this will inevitably lead to further, sizable reductions in property values,’ he added, and pointed out that other potential threats include the UK voting to leave the European Union, economic slowing in countries like Russia and China and low oil prices. Continue reading
