Tag Archives: real estate
Majority of Australians feel the housing market is heading for a downturn
Two thirds of Australians now think the housing market is vulnerable to a sustainable downturn with the sentiment affecting all regions of the country, a new poll shows. While the survey results suggests that respondents are concerned about a crash in home values, this remains unchanged from a year ago, and lower than the 68% of respondents who indicated ‘yes’ to this question six months ago. The higher proportion of respondents who were concerned about a large correction in the housing market was broad with all regions indicating at least 61% of respondents were concerned about a housing market crash, according to the CoreLogic-TEG housing market sentiment survey. The result indicates that a significant proportion of the community are wary of substantial value falls across the nation’s largest and most important asset class, which according to CoreLogic RP Data is currently worth an estimated $6.5 trillion. Recent housing market forecasts from CoreLogic RP Data and Moody’s Analytics indicate dwelling values are likely to experience falls, however the peak to trough declines are likely to be short lived and relatively slight, followed by a longer period of relatively sedate housing market conditions. Home values are already trending lower in Perth and Darwin with both cities recording a peak to current fall of 4.6%. Additionally, the pace of capital gains in Sydney and Melbourne, where dwelling values have surged higher over the past two growth cycles, is moderating in what has been a controlled trajectory to date. The survey also revealed a slowdown in the proportion of survey respondents who think now is a good time to buy; 61% indicated they would consider buying a home, however a year ago the reading was much higher at 71%. Perceptions around buying conditions worsened across most regions over the past 12 months, with Tasmanian and Sydney buyers the most pessimistic about buying conditions. Only 40% and 50% of respective respondents in these cities indicated they felt it was a good time to buy. However, buying sentiment improved over the past year in some of the weakest markets where listing numbers are higher and housing prices have reduced. The proportion of survey respondents who indicated that current market conditions represent a good time to buy increased by 1% over the year in Perth while buyer sentiment in the Northern Territory increased by a substantial 20% compared with a year ago. When survey respondents were asked whether they thought home values would rise, fall or remain stable over the coming six and 12 months, most respondents expect values to remain stable, however 17% of respondents are expecting values to fall over both the next six and 12 months. A year ago, 49% of survey respondents were expecting dwelling values to rise over the coming six months compared with only 31% over the most recent quarter. Respondents based in Sydney have seen the most substantial deterioration in the proportion expecting values to rise over the next half year. A year ago,… Continue reading
Sales to first time buyers increased in UK in March
Sales to first time buyers in the UK were up in March and real estate agents expect to see further increases in sales to the group following the buy to let stamp duty changes. Some 28% of total sales in March went to people buying their first home, an increase of 4% compared to February, according to the latest housing market report from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA). The report also says that 39% of estate agents expect the stamp duty change which saw the introduction of 3% rate on buy to let properties and second homes to increase availability for first time buyers as interest from investors slows. More than a third of estate agents, some 36%, argue sales to first time buyers will pick up further, due to less competition for properties. Overall, the supply of houses available to buyers soared by54% in March from 35 properties available to buy per branch in February to 54 in March. On the other hand, demand decreased last month, when agents reported an average 417 house hunters registered per member branch, down from 463 in February when demand for housing was at the highest level in 12 years. In March, estate agents also reported a decrease in the number of properties selling for more than asking price. Only 7% of agents saw this happen in March compared to 11% in February. ‘The last few months first time buyers have had to compete with landlords for the same properties and those landlords have really pushed hard to complete ahead of the rise in stamp duty,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director,. ‘Now, in theory things should get easier for first time buyers as we have seen with a slight increase in sales this month and as those seeking to buy to let will tail off,’ he explained. ‘However in reality, it’s unlikely in the long term that first time buyers will notice a huge difference, as prices remain high and housing is in short supply. The Government needs to significantly increase the number of homes that are being built in this country to really make a difference to those that are struggling to get on the housing ladder,’ he added. Continue reading
US existing home sales bounce back after unexpected decline
Sales of existing homes in the United States bounced back in March with big gains in the Northeast and Midwest, according to the latest index data to be published. Total existing sales, which are completed transactions that include single family homes, town homes, condominiums and co-ops, increased by 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million in March from a downwardly revised 5.07 million in February. The data from the National Association of Realtors also shows that overall sales rose in all four major regions last month and were up 1.5% compared with March 2015. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said the rebound was welcome after an uncharacteristically large decline in February. ‘Closings came back in force last month as a greater number of buyers, mostly in the Northeast and Midwest, overcame depressed inventory levels and steady price growth to close on a home,’ he explained. ‘Buyer demand remains sturdy in most areas this spring and the mid-priced market is doing quite well. However, sales are softer both at the very low and very high ends of the market because of supply limitations and affordability pressures,’ he added. The index also shows that the median existing home price for all housing types in March was $222,700, up 5.7% from March 2015 when it was $210,700. March's price increase marks the 49th consecutive month of year on year gains. Total housing inventory at the end of March increased 5.9% to 1.98 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 1.5% lower than a year ago when it was 2.01 million. Unsold inventory is at a 4.5 month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.4 months in February. ‘The choppiness in sales activity so far this year is directly related to the unevenness in the rate of new listings coming onto the market to replace what is, for the most part, being sold rather quickly,’ said Yun. ‘Additionally, a segment of would be buyers at the upper end of the market appear to have been spooked by January's stock market correction,’ he explained. Matching the lowest share since August 2015, properties typically stayed on the market for 47 days in March, a decrease from 59 days in February and below the 52 days in March 2015. Short sales were on the market the longest at a median of 120 days in March, while foreclosures sold in 50 days and non-distressed homes took 46 days. Some 42% of homes sold in March were on the market for less than a month, the highest since July 2015 when it was 43%. The data also shows that the share of first time buyers was 30% in March, unchanged both from February and a year ago. First time buyers in all of 2015 also represented an average of 30%. ‘With rents steadily rising and average fixed rates well below 4%, qualified first time buyers should be more active participants than what they are right now. Unfortunately,… Continue reading
