Tag Archives: real estate
PwC forecasts marked slowdown in UK housing market but no major crash
The UK should avoid a house price crash or a severe recession despite growth downgrades following the decision to leave the European Union, new research shows. UK growth had already eased from around 3% in 2014 to around 2% before the EU referendum due primarily to slower global growth, but the vote to leave the EU is likely to lead to a significant further slowdown. UK GDP growth is forecast to decelerate to around 1.6% in 2016 and 0.6% in 2017 according to PwC’s main scenario in its latest UK Economic Outlook report. Quarter on quarter GDP growth could fall to close to zero in late 2016 and early 2017 in this main scenario, but is then projected to recover gradually later in 2017 as the immediate post referendum shock starts to fade. The UK would avoid recession in this scenario, although the report notes that uncertainties around this central view are significant, with alternative scenarios showing GDP growth in 2017 of anywhere between growth of 1.5% and a fall of 1%. But even this latter relatively pessimistic scenario would not be a severe recession of the kind seen in the early 1980s or in 2008/2009. The main reason for the slowdown is projected to be a decline in business investment, particularly from overseas in areas such as commercial property. Construction companies and capital goods manufacturers could also be relatively exposed to this kind of short term cyclical slowdown, the report says. PwC anticipates a marked slowdown in house price growth, but no major crash. In PwC’s main scenario, UK house price growth is expected to decelerate to around 3% in 2016 and around 1% in 2017. After this initial dip, however, projected house price growth picks up again to around 4% in 2018 and an average of around 5% to 6% per annum in the longer term as persistent supply shortages keep house prices rising faster on average than earnings. PwC estimates that average UK house prices in 2018 could be 8% lower than if the UK had voted to stay in the EU, although this would still leave them 8% higher on average than in 2015. The estimated impact of Brexit varies by region. The report says that average house prices in London could be around £60,000 lower due to Brexit than they would otherwise have been by 2018, in contrast to a reduction of £10,000 in Scotland and just £8,000 in the North East. ‘We think there are four main reasons why the Brexit vote will lead to a slowdown in the housing market in the short term: the deterrence of foreign investment, uncertainty regarding the future of EU nationals living in the UK, a reduction in consumer confidence and turbulence in the banking sector,’ said Richard Snook, senior economist at PwC. ‘While these factors will weigh heavily on the market in the short term, we expect a gradual recovery from 2018 onwards as market… Continue reading
Median sales prices hit record high in five regions in New Zealand
Five regions in New Zealand saw median sales prices hit a new record high but overall the median price nationals fell by 1% in June, the latest real estate index shows. The median sales price now stands at $500,000 with the Waikato/Bay of Plenty region recorded its fifth record median sale price for 2016, reaching $438,000, while the median price in Auckland reaching $821,000. The data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) also shows that Northland recorded a new record median of $360,000, while Otago reached $295,000 and Central Otago Lakes hit $730,050. The index figures reveal that sales fell 13% month on month which is in line with the general trend at this time of the year although an increase of 6% was recorded in June 2015. ‘Although the onset of winter means that June is generally a quieter month for the real estate market, there has been no let-up in the rate of price increases across the country, with five regions recording new record median prices,’ said REINZ spokesperson Bryan Thomson. ‘Although there is much discussion about the housing market and increasing new build supply, the fact remains that the vast majority of the supply comes from the sale of existing properties,’ he added. The data also reveals a rapid declines in the volume of properties available for sale right across the country, with a number of regions, such as Wellington and Hawke’s Bay, recording very low levels of properties for sale. Thomson pointed out that while Auckland continues to be the largest single region, its influence on the national picture is waning due to its own weaker sales and strong growth in sales in other regions, particularly Waikato/Bay of Plenty and Northland. Auckland’s peak share of national sales was 39.7% in January 2014, however, its share is now just over 33.8%. Over the same period Waikato/Bay of Plenty’s share of national sales has increased from 14.3% to 19.0%. A breakdown of the figures shows that Central Otago Lakes recorded the largest percentage increase in median price compared to June 2015, at 42%, followed by Waikato/Bay of Plenty at 26% and Otago at 19%. The number of properties available for sale across all regions in New Zealand has continued to fall between June 2015 and June 2016. Wellington has the fewest properties for sale with just over seven weeks of supply, closely followed by Hawke’s Bay with nine weeks supply and Auckland with just under 10 weeks of supply. The number of days to sell has only improved by three days at the national level over the past 12 months, although the regions have seen some significant improvements with nine regions seeing a decrease of 20% or more in the number of days to sell. Auckland was the only region to see a lengthening of the number of days to sell over the past 12 months. Between June 2015 and June 2016, the number… Continue reading
No interest rate cut in UK unlikely to affect property market
The surprise decision by the Bank of England not to announce a cut in the UK’s already historic low interest rates is unlikely to have much impact on the property market with some experts believing it could boost real estate. Even if the bank rate had been cut to 0.25% from 0.5% there would have been little room for improvement, according to David Whittaker, managing director of Mortgages for Business, who pointed out that mortgage rates are already at record lows and there is little room for them to go much lower. ‘Inter lender competition has played a significant part in this and with yields on swaps and UK gilts remaining near record lows, mortgage borrowers will continue to benefit from enhanced affordability for some time. Property investors with sound financial planning and a long term outlook are therefore well placed to take advantage of continued generous pricing,’ he said. ‘Property prices could be a little bumpy in the short term and the Monetary Policy Committee has highlighted a weakening of activity in the housing market. This might trim some short term capital gains on offer but in the long term, the outlook for investors remains positive. Supply of housing in the UK remains significantly out of sync with demand which will support price increases over coming years. Furthermore, high levels of demand for rental accommodation will provide landlords with strong yields,’ he added. Lucian Cook, Savills UK head of residential research, explained that the two year fixed rate has already levelled out. ‘We may now see lenders margins edge up. However, this is likely to be no more than a squeeze on affordability for mortgaged home owners, suggesting that what happens to the housing market in the short term will have more to do with sentiment than the cost of debt,’ he said. ‘The cost of borrowing will become more important once we see the economic impact of the decision to leave the EU, but for now the Bank still has the option of reducing rates up its sleeve,’ he added. ‘A greater level of political stability following the appointment of the new Prime Minister probably helped to steer the decision to hold interest rates, according to Andrew Burrell, head of forecasting at JLL. ‘This can also be taken as a move to reassure the market that the Bank will not take knee jerk reactions and will remain calm under pressure. The market itself is also operating at low rate levels which may have removed the urgency to cut rates this month,’ he pointed out. ‘Indeed, interest rates continue to soften along the yield curve with most maturities at record lows. A cut shouldn’t be ruled out in August, however, after the market has been given more time to adjust and longer term sentiment is clearer,’ he concluded. Adam Challis, head of residential research at JLL, pointed out that even if there had been a cut… Continue reading
