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Investment in European commercial property up by 25% in 2015 year on year
A total of €64.5 billion was invested in European commercial property in the final quarter of 2015, which took volumes for the full year to €238.5 billion, a 25% increase on 2014. However, the fourth quarter total was only slightly up, by 0.5%, on the same quarter of 2014, indicating that investment growth lost a little momentum towards the end of the year, according to the latest European quarterly commercial property outlook report from Knight Frank. However, it shows that increases in investment activity were widespread in 2015, with the core markets of the UK, Germany and France all seeing transactions rise by more than 20%. Among peripheral markets, investment volumes grew particularly strongly in Italy and Portugal, both fuelled by surging demand from international investors. The strength of investor demand kept European prime yields under downward pressure throughout 2015, although the pace of yield compression slowed in the final quarter. Also, the European weighted average prime office yield came down by four basis points in the final three months of 2015 to an all-time low of 4.79%, largely on the back of yield compression in Amsterdam, Berlin, Brussels, Copenhagen and Lisbon. The report points out that with large amounts of capital continuing to target European property, strong investment activity is expected to continue in 2016. However, the exceptional growth in transaction volumes seen in 2015 is unlikely to be repeated. Knight Frank’s forecast is that European investment in 2016 will be broadly in line with 2015 volumes. Many of the factors that supported the investment market in 2015, including the stabilising Eurozone economy, low interest rates and wide yield spreads to other asset types look set to remain favourable to property investors throughout 2016, the report says. The report also points out that Eurozone GDP growth is forecast to improve modestly to around 1.7%, following an increase of 1.5% in 2015. The European Central Bank has indicated that it may be prepared to make further interest rate cuts to support economic growth at a time when its main refinancing rate is currently 0.05% and the deposit rate is already in negative territory at -0.3%. Supported by the stabilisation of the Eurozone economy, European occupier market activity improved healthily in 2015. On an annual basis, aggregate take-up in the major markets monitored by Knight Frank rose by 10%. This was despite falling take-up in Europe’s two largest markets, London and Paris, and was driven by the strong performance of German, Iberian and CEE markets. Prime rents remained stable in the majority of European markets in the fourth quarter but the Knight Frank European Prime Office Rental Index rose by 0.9%, driven by increases in Dublin, Frankfurt, London (City), Madrid and Stockholm. The report suggests that rental growth may spread to a wider range of cities in 2016 with Paris, for example, expected to see prime office rents increase following more than two years of stability. Continue reading
Sau Paulo has the highest property taxes for real estate investors
As the rate of price growth slows in many global city markets, transaction costs and taxation are becoming increasingly important considerations for investors, a new analysis suggests. With slower price growth forecast in a number of prime city markets, investors are looking more closely at the cost side of the investment equation, according to the report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. While there may be a number of factors behind the choice of location, the research shows that the tax burden across the cities in this report varies considerably both in amount and extent. The tax costs range from as low as 3.5% or 3.6% of the property price in year five in Monaco and Dubai respectively, to over 30% in Sao Paulo. Despite encompassing a wide variety of cities and policies, a number of common themes and trends have arisen throughout the research. For example, in some cities, most notably in Geneva and in Mumbai, there are significant legal restrictions for non-residents who wish to purchase property so it is important to consider these before an investment decision is made. In some jurisdictions, the tax costs are represented primarily by acquisition taxes, notably in Monaco and Dubai, while in most other jurisdictions, tax costs usually comprise acquisition duties payable when purchasing the property; wealth or yearly taxes when holding the property; taxes on rental income, and taxes on disposal of the property, including tax on gains and/or duties at the point of the sale of the property. While in some countries the relative/percentage tax costs are almost equal for both US$1 million and US$10 million properties, in others the tax costs of holding the US$10 million property are almost double those for US$1 million property, the report points out. ‘Finally, it is important to note that some taxes, such as inheritance/gift taxes have not been taken into account in this analysis. Nor were home country taxes. Moreover, we have assumed that investors purchase in their personal name but that might not necessarily be the most efficient from a host or investment country’s tax perspective,’ the report says. However, overall property costs remain largely the same for both a $1 million and $10 million property in many cities such as Sao Paulo, Mumbai and Geneva whilst others see a significant reduction in percentage terms at the $10 million level such as New York and Paris. Reviewing the tax costs across the 15 main cities shows that taxation is highest in Sao Paulo, at both the US$1 million and US$10 million levels, where investors are taxed at 31.5% of the sale value at year five. Hong Kong and Sydney also rank highly. An investor purchasing a US$1 million property in Hong Kong is taxed 22.4%, whilst at the US$10 million level investors in Sydney are taxed 26.0%, in both cases as a percentage of year five price. Monaco offers non-resident investors the lowest rate of tax at 3.5% as a percentage of… Continue reading
Investment in European commercial property up 18% year on year in Q3
The level of investment into European commercial real estate continues to grow with €62 billion invested in the third quarter of 2015, up 18% on the same period in 2014. France experienced the most noteworthy increase with investment activity of over €7 billion, almost double that of the same quarter in 2014, according to figures from CBRE. French investment activity was dominated by domestic investors who accounted for more than 70% of CRE investment in the third quarter, and who typically favoured large offices located in the Paris CBD. Whilst France benefitted from the biggest change in investor sentiment, it was Germany which saw the greatest increase in absolute terms, with quarter three investment of €14 billion, up €5.6 billion on the same quarter last year. The report points out that the €36 billion already invested in German commercial real estate in the first three quarters of this year is 40% higher than the equivalent period in 2014. Alongside France and Germany, several other countries experienced a strong third quarter. Norway and Sweden saw investment volumes grow by 139% and 68% respectively on the third quarter of 2014. Southern Europe also performed well, with Portugal and Italy benefitting from a slight shift in investor focus away from the Spanish market. Belgium attracted near record levels of investment in the third quarter, boosted by several large retail transactions. In Central and Eastern Europe, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary saw the most investment activity. At a city level, the most notable aspect was the move of the Nordics up the table of Europe’s largest CRE investment markets with Oslo, Copenhagen and Stockholm making the top 10. Typically these Nordic capitals have very high levels of domestic investment, around 70%, with cross-border European investment accounting for around 25% and just 5% of capital coming from outside of Europe. However in the third quarter foreign investment accounted for more than half the total in both Oslo and Copenhagen. London and Paris continue to fill the top two spots in the league table, but interestingly all five of the main German markets make it into the quarter’s top ten for the first time since the first quarter of 2013. ‘We have seen good growth across the European commercial real estate investment market in the last quarter. With high levels of transactions expected in the fourth quarter, this current trend is set to continue and we believe we will see a strong year end in terms of investment volumes,’ said Jonathan Hull, managing director, EMEA Capital Markets at CBRE. ‘Retail recorded the strongest levels of investment growth this quarter up 45% on the third quarter of 2014, the second highest level we have seen in 10 years of data. The office sector also performed well across the region, underscored by some significant transactions in France, the UK, Norway… Continue reading
