Tag Archives: outlook
Prime property market in London set to be affected most by Brexit
The prime property market in London is likely to be the affected the most by the referendum results in the UK which will see the country leave the European Union. Sales activity and price growth in the prime London residential market have already both slowed since the middle of 2014 and in the run up to the historic vote many commentators and experts were predicting that a vote to leave would affect London the most. ‘There is no doubt that the vote in favour of Brexit will generate a period of renewed uncertainty in the prime London residential market. Some demand, especially from investors, will be delayed and in some cases redirected to other markets although the significance of these trends should not be overstated,’ said Liam Bailey of international real estate firm Knight Frank. He explained that demand for prime London property rests on a wide range of drivers most of which are unaffected by the referendum decision such as the scale of London’s business cluster, depth of skills, education, lifestyle and language. ‘It is not easy to identify an obvious alternative destination for investors despite short term nervousness. On the eve of the vote the pound sat 14% below its mid-2014 peak meaning pricing in the prime market was more attractive for dollar buyers. While a further weakening of the pound could increase inward investment, this impact will be constrained by the fact that around 80% of central London buyers are UK residents,’ he pointed out. ‘It seems a reasonable assumption to make that interest rates will be lower for longer, despite the risk of imported inflation from a weaker pound. While the long term benefit of ultra-low interest rates on the housing market may be questionable, in the short term they will act to underpin demand especially for equity rich buyers with access to the best funding rates,’ he added. Bailey also believes that the prime country house market will be similarly impacted by the result. ‘However while the market has performed relatively well over recent years, following a slow recovery immediately after the financial crisis, prices have not tracked London to date and there is scope for some outperformance in the short to medium term,’ he said. ‘While we are entering a period of renewed uncertainty in the UK and London market, ongoing issues around EU and especially Eurozone stability, which will be highlighted in the run up to French and German elections, are likely to counter this risk and shore-up London’s safe haven appeal,’ he concluded. The decision to leave has opened up a Pandora’s Box as far as the London property market is concerned and for overseas buyers, this big and dramatic drop in the value of Sterling will effectively offset the Stamp Duty and tax adjustments and it will make prime London property a lucrative investment for overseas investors bold enough to make a decision to buy despite the market uncertainty, according to Peter Wetherell, chief… Continue reading
Outlook for investment in Scottish commercial property market positive
With talk of another referendum in Scotland if the UK votes later this month to leave the European Union new research has found that Scottish independence is not a priority for UK property investment. Investors believe that they will still invest in commercial real estate in Scotland as long as yield outperforms other regions as the issue of Scottish independence ranks lower in importance than rental yield, capital growth and a stable tax environment. Just 21% of property investors said independence was an important factor, less than half the 46% who mentioned rental yield, according to the Morton Fraser survey. Overall one in four property investors is open to investing in Scotland with 11% actively monitoring or currently pursuing opportunities. Proportionately, this is above the nation’s 8.9% share of the UK commercial real estate market. It also shows that 85% believe that leaving the EU would have no impact at all on their likelihood to invest in Scotland and 79% of property investors claimed Scotland separating from the UK would not affect their decision to invest. ‘It is easy to overestimate the potential impact of Scottish independence on the property market. Investors are ready to enter the market if the right opportunity arises, regardless of the political status of the country,’ said David Stewart, commercial real estate partner at Morton Fraser. ‘That gives us optimism for the future of the Scottish real estate industry. If the price is right and the market conditions are at least on a par with other regional areas across the UK, investors will follow the returns. The prospect of a neverendum in Scotland may drag investment, but it’s not the deciding factor for many,’ he added. With rental yield the number one criteria for potential British property investors looking to enter the Scottish market, Morton Fraser has uncovered the ‘tipping point’ at which a yield premium would encourage investment. Of the property investors likely to invest in Scotland if there was a higher yield premium, 70% said a benchmark of more than 3% or higher would encourage them to invest, with 31% saying more that 5%. That figure should be viewed in the broader context of many respondents being initially cold on investing in Scotland, so the true figure for active investors is likely to be sharper. ‘Many investors are prepared to overlook ideological or political issues to run the rule over Scottish property investments. The yield gap between Scotland and other regional cities in the rest of the UK can always be met with a quality opportunity whether you are looking to invest in Edinburgh or Manchester, Glasgow or Bristol, a high quality asset will always stand on its own merits,’ Stewart added. Continue reading
Rents still falling slightly in Spain, but market is more stable
It is clear that the Spanish property market is recovering in terms of sales and even prices but the rental market is not doing as well. The average rent fell by 0.3% in February compared to the same month of 2015, according to the latest data from the National Statistics Institute. Rents have now fallen in Spain for 35 months in a row but the outlook is not too negative as rents are down less than the consumer price index which fell by 0.8% and month on month have been fairly stable lately. A breakdown of the figures show that all regions saw rents fall apart from Galicia, the Balearics, Navarre and Catalonia with slight rises of 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.1% and 0.1% respectively while rents in Murcia were unchanged. The biggest decline was in La Rioja with a fall of 2%, followed by Castilla y León and Castilla La Mancha both down 0.9%, Madrid and Extremadura both down 0.8%, the Basque Country down 0.6%, Asturias and Cantabria both down 0.5% and Valencia down 0.4%. Elsewhere in the market is regarded as good news that overseas buyers have returned to Spain. But it may be that some are more interested in older properties rather than new homes. According to data from the Spanish Ministry of Public Works, foreigners bought 69,196 homes in Spain during 2015, up 13% over the previous year, and accounted for almost one in every five of the homes sold in the country last year. Non-resident foreigners purchased a total of 4,846 homes in Spain last year, up 10.1% over a year earlier, while resident foreign buyers bought 64,350 homes last year, an increase of 13.3% compared to the previous year. Valencia was the top region for foreign buyers in 2015 with a total of 20,219 sold to foreign buyers, followed by Andalucía with 14,384 homes being registered to foreign buyers and then Catalonia, with 10,264 homes sold to foreign buyers. Research from boutique overseas real estate agency Ideal Homes International has found that resales now account for 76% of sales to British buyers but there is still interest in new properties from Scandinavian and Belgian buyers. According to director Chris White many British buyers are looking for dual purpose properties. In the immediate term they want a holiday home that also has the potential to earn income as a holiday let. In the longer term, they want somewhere that can act as investment for their golden years, either as somewhere to escape to for a life in the sunshine or as somewhere that will grow their capital so that they can sell it to fund their retirement. ‘There was a time when British buyers flocked to new build developments in Spain. The financial turbulence of the past decade has had an interesting impact on British property purchases in Spain. Confidence is back and the market is growing at a healthy pace, but the type of property that buyers are seeking has definitely… Continue reading
