Tag Archives: outlook
Investment in London commercial property market close to last peak in 2007
Investment in central London’s commercial property market reached £20.5 billion in 2014, marginally below the last investment peak in 2007 when £20.6 billion was traded, a new report shows. The huge weight of money flowing into the London real estate investment market from the UK and abroad looks set to continue in 2015 with the level of demand far outstripping the available supply, according to the data from global real estate adviser Cushman & Wakefield. A breakdown of the findings show that investment volumes in the City of London and Docklands reached just over £5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2014, the highest quarterly volume ever recorded in the market. The report says that the strong end to the year meant that the annual total reached £13.8 billion, which is the second highest on record behind the 2007 peak of £13.9 billion. Indeed, half of all investment volumes in the final quarter were as a result of three transactions in excess of £250 million each, which reflects the annual trend and 48% of all 2014 investment volumes were due to 10 transactions above this threshold. The report points out that increasing numbers of investors and surging volumes of equity are being invested into the City of London market with interest from a wide cross-section of investors, notably the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds. It also shows that overseas investors remain the most active in terms of transactional investment volumes accounting for 78% of both the fourth quarter and annual total. Asian investors dominated fourth quarter investment volumes but over the year North American investors have spent the most money in London. However, 2014 witnessed positive net investment from both Asia and the Middle East, while all other regions including the UK disinvested from the capital. Due to exceptional demand, the market yields are being driven down for all investments with prime at 4.25 to 4.5%, albeit several transactions have completed below 4%, notably the Gherkin. ‘We saw a strong City of London investment market in 2014 with international investors dominating acquisitions. The international appeal of London continues with an ever increasing spread of new global investors entering the market and there are no signs of an imminent slowdown,’ said James Crawford, Cushman & Wakefield’s head of City of London investment. ‘Deals from £1 million to £1.2 billion closed during 2014 and capital values hit an all-time high of over £1,400 per square foot at the Gherkin. The first half of 2015 shows all the early signs of a continuation of last year but we expect some profit taking to occur later in the year and uncertainty around the general election in May,’ he explained. ‘We estimate there is £250 billion of liquidity in the market available for direct investment in property and when this is combined with an improving debt market, a severe supply demand mismatch will be created,’ he added. The report also shows that the momentum recorded in… Continue reading
London commercial property market expected to see strongest rental growth in 2015
London’s commercial property market experienced the strongest rental growth in 2014 and is expected it to stay in the lead over the next 12 months, according to a new outlook report. The recovery in the UK economy combined with low levels of development means that the balance between demand and supply is now swinging in favour of landlords, the report from Schroders also says. Risks to the positive outlook include the possibility that UK economic growth is much weaker than forecast, so that the upswing in rents stalls rather than accelerates. ‘While rental growth outside London is patchier, some regional markets are definitely coming out of hibernation. Given a reasonably high yield and a further rental growth as the economy improves, we expect that next year will see another solid performance from UK commercial real estate,’ said the firm’s head of real estate Duncan Owen. The report says that 2014 has been a good year for UK commercial real estate and unleveraged total returns are likely to be close to 20%. Most of this year’s performance has been driven by a favourable fall in property yields, as investors seek income. ‘Looking ahead to 2015 we expect that total returns will remain in double figures, but that rental growth will make a larger contribution. The recovery in the economy combined with low levels of development means that the balance between demand and supply is now swinging in favour of landlords and we anticipate that rental growth will accelerate,’ explained Owen. In the office sector, the emergence of central London as a powerhouse for international accountancy, law, media and technology companies has pushed vacancy rates back down to pre-crisis levels, not just in the prime locations of the City and West End, but also in less established areas such as Farringdon, Kings Cross and the South Bank, the outlook explains. ‘In previous cycles this squeeze on space and upswing in rents would have triggered a big increase in development and encouraged companies to move to cheaper offices in outer London, or other cities. However, so far we have seen relatively little new office building in central London, partly because stricter capital adequacy rules mean that banks are now less willing to fund projects and partly because competing residential schemes are often more profitable,’ Owen pointed out. ‘Moreover, central London now has such a deep pool of highly qualified labour that some companies are even re-locating to the centre from outer London or the wider South East, even though rents and business rates are more expensive,’ he added. Similarly, the report says that retail rents in many parts of London are rising on the back of strong population growth. There are also an increasing numbers of young professionals who choose to live in inner London rather than copy their parents and move to the suburbs. This is leading to the rapid gentrification of areas such as Brixton, Hackney and New Cross which were previously relatively poor. While rental… Continue reading
Rents in Scotland reach all-time peak, latest index shows
Rents in Scotland have crept up to an all-time peak, despite an overall cooling in annual growth this year, according to the latest buy to let index. The average residential rent in Scotland now stands at £539 per month, the highest level on record after a 0.2% rise in November, says the data from Your Move, one of Scotland’s largest lettings agent networks. But on an annual basis, rent rises are stabilising after a slowdown in growth. Average monthly rents across Scotland have climbed 2.2% over the past year, consistent with the annual growth recorded last month. The average monthly rent has increased £12 from £527 in November 2013. This shows a considerable slackening from 3.5% annual rise over the year to November 2013. At their fastest pace, annual rent growth reached 4.3% in February 2014, according to Christine Campbell, regional managing director of Your Move. ‘Scottish rents have been steadily edging forwards, and despite only taking baby steps, they reached a new pinnacle in November. Demand and supply are still out of kilter, and in highly sought-after employment and cultural nerve centres like Edinburgh, this overflowing competition for homes to let has topped up rent prices,’ she said. ‘But the outlook has shifted starkly from the start of this year, and annual rent rises have been trimmed back to healthier levels, as usual market forces check the rate of growth. In real terms, average rents across Scotland are only 1.2% higher than they were a year ago,’ she pointed out. She also explained that speculation over how future rental caps or more stringent letting controls may disorientate the stable direction rents are currently moving in and any spike in rents would hurt thousands of households who depend on private rented accommodation. ‘Renters rely on landlords too. Increased investment into the sector is the only way to alleviate the strain of the current housing shortage and soothe competition for rental homes. If buy to let investment dries up, and the pool of properties to let contracts, rents will swallow the shortfall and eat into tenant finance,’ she added. A breakdown of the figures show that rents have increased on a monthly basis in just two out of five regions of Scotland in November. The East saw the fastest monthly uptick in average rents, up 1.1% from October. Edinburgh and the Lothians was the only other area of Scotland to record a rise, with 0.4% growth taking prices to a record of £617 per month. Rental prices dropped over the majority of Scottish regions between October and November. The South saw the greatest monthly fall of 0.3%, with average rents dipping £2 to £485 in November. Average monthly rents across the Highlands and Islands slipped back 0.2%, and have dropped 0.1% in Glasgow and Clyde since October. On an annual basis, rents are higher than a year ago in three out of five regions of Scotland. The biggest year on year… Continue reading
