Tag Archives: outlook
New analysis identifies rising commercial opportunities in smaller UK cities
Rising capital values and strong competition are now driving investors to look beyond the major UK cities for quality office stock and potential value, a new report shows. The analysis from global property consultancy JLL looks at the economic and office market performance of 37 smaller towns and cities giving an insight in to which locations will offer the biggest opportunity over the next five years. The report shows some smaller cities are found to have a stronger outlook than the major cities such as London, Manchester and Birmingham. It explains that the success of these smaller cities will be closely associated with their ability to develop and grow clusters of businesses, along with strong university links and the provision of integrated transport and infrastructure. Growth leaders, including Brighton, Solihull and Reading have seen capital value increases of over 25% since the end of 2012 and are expected to see a stronger than average economic performance over the next five years. With the outlook remaining solid for these cities, most of which have firmly established business clusters, JLL says it may be prudent for investors to focus on opportunities where they can reposition their assets to benefit from any price growth. The report also reveals locations such as Oxford, Warrington, Southampton and Nottingham, with a similarly strong economic outlook but where recent capital value growth has not been as strong as the growth leaders and opportunities may actually be greater going forward. These potential performers include a broad range of property markets that JLL anticipates could benefit from further capital growth as the property market continues to respond to the improving economic climate. ‘The outlook for the UK’s smaller cities is now more optimistic than it has been for some time. Our research shows potential performers, including the likes of Oxford and Warrington, should benefit from further capital growth over the coming years as the property market continues to improve,’ said Chris Ireland, chairman and lead director for UK Capital Markets at JLL. ‘Indeed, the potential for growth in some of the smaller cities may be greater than in the big six regional centres which have already seen substantial uplift,’ he added. ‘From an occupational perspective, we think there will be a gradual shift towards office rental growth in a number of these centres which should ensure continuing investor and developer interest,’ explained Ireland. According to Ben Burston, head of UK offices research at JLL, strong business clusters are a key determinant of future growth prospects. ‘For instance, Oxford’s strong life science cluster is contributing to a robust employment growth outlook, while Warrington is benefitting from a strong nuclear research and technology cluster,’ he said. ‘The devolution agenda provides an opportunity for more decision making to be taken at local level, which could help drive improvements to transport, infrastructure and public realm that will help attract people and businesses, and thereby drive future growth,’ he pointed out. Cities identified in the report as… Continue reading
UK gross mortgage lending showing signs of picking up
Mortgage lending in the UK is still down on a quarterly basis on what it was a year ago but there are signs of a pickup, according to the latest figures to be published. Estimates from the Council of Mortgage Lenders shows that gross mortgage lending reached £16.5 billion in March, some 21% higher than February but lending for the first quarter is 12% down on the final quarter of 2014 and 3% down on the first quarter of 2014. However it is up month on month for the month of March, some 7% higher than March of 2014 and CML chief economist Bob Pannell said that the underlying lending picture is stabilising. ‘Sentiment and activity are showing early signs of improvement, and should be further supported by the effects of stamp duty reform. We expect to see lending strengthen over the next few months, albeit from a relatively sluggish start in 2015,’ he said. But buy to let lending is stronger. Data from the Bank of England shows that gross lending for buy to let purposes was £27.4 billion in 2014 and over the past five years the share of total buy to let lending in overall mortgage lending picked up to 15% in the fourth quarter of 2014 Q4, higher than in the pre-crisis period. The Bank’s network of Agents noted that the rental market had continued to grow strongly in recent months, supporting continued steady growth in buy to let activity and gross buy to let lending has grown faster than overall gross mortgage lending in recent years. Gross buy to let advances for remortgaging have also increased in recent years. As a share of the total it grew from 32% in 2002 to 52% in 2014, with the share of gross advances for house purchase at 45%. According to David Whittaker, managing director of Mortgages for Business, buy to let is not subject to the nerves and jitters of this spring’s home owner mortgage market. ‘Election uncertainty might be putting some people off buying a home, but in the meantime millions of tenants still need somewhere to live and landlords are investing in new properties, as buy to let mortgage rates reach new lows,’ he said. ‘Underpinning this, rents are picking up on the back of a strengthening jobs market, supporting yields while steady price growth is still providing an additional bonus of capital growth to many landlords,’ he explained. However he pointed out that there are uncertainties on the horizon. ‘The latest noises from the Bank of England indicate how the powers that be seem as unsure about the future path of interest rates as the man on the street. However, when rates do rise, or if the economic recovery does slow, landlords will be in a better position to stand up to headwinds than a year ago as their tenants’ financial health improves,’ he added. In general the mortgage lending market is improving, according to… Continue reading
Positive medium outlook for prime UK property beyond London
Value offered in prime residential property markets beyond London suggests a positive medium term outlook despite some caution among buyers ahead of the UK general election next month. But there are differences on a regional basis, according to real estate firm Savills whose latest analysis report points out that it has become pretty much impossible to talk about the UK’s prime housing markets beyond London as a single entity. It explains that since the economic downturn of 2008, the markets have become increasingly stratified, reflecting not only their distance from the capital, but also the tier of the prime market in which they sit and whether they are in an urban, rural or coastal location. Wide price differentials now exist between London and its commuter zone, the remainder of England and Wales and, indeed Scotland. A property worth £1 million in 2007 would now be worth £1.34 million in London, £1.05 million in the commuter zone and £780,000 in Scotland. ‘Within each of these areas, the prime urban markets have generally been on the rise, while their rural counterparts have lagged behind to date. Although the medium term prospects remain positive, all of these submarkets face challenges in 2015,’ explained Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills. ‘Although the economic recovery has held firm and the outlook for interest rates remains relatively benign, political uncertainty in the run up to the general election has, for the moment at least, resulted in an air of caution among buyers,’ he said. ‘The mainstream markets, which impact on sentiment higher up the value chain, seem to have been similarly affected despite the best efforts of the Chancellor to stimulate a feel good factor with the recent long overdue reform of stamp duty. The reality is that the increased regulation of the mortgage market will have played a significant part in bringing a period of sobriety to the wider housing market following strong growth in the first half of 2014,’ he pointed out. ‘Despite lower levels of mortgage debt dependency, regulatory limits on the amount of borrowing a buyer can take on board will also have had an impact on those looking to work their way up the prime housing market. Meanwhile, a significant chunk of the prime market now finds itself with a larger stamp duty liability,’ he added. Cook also explained that taxation has been an even greater concern in the upper echelons of the prime market and the debate around a mansion tax has done nothing to engender a sense of urgency among buyers. ‘However unwelcome and unwarranted the proposal, owners of prime regional housing may take some solace from the fact that the main burden of the tax would be felt by owners of higher value properties in London,’ said Cook. ‘If a mansion tax is introduced it has the potential to make properties outside of the capital, that already look comparatively good value, appear even more attractive. Over time it could… Continue reading
