Tag Archives: outlook
Households across the UK positive about property price growth
UK house price sentiment remains positive with households in all regions believing that property prices increased in September, the latest index shows. Some 22.5% of households surveyed across the UK said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, while 3.8% said that prices had fallen, according to the index from Knight Frank and Markit Economics. The index, which is a bellwether for house price movements across the country, recorded a reading of 59.3 and has now had a reading above 50 for 30 months in a row. Any figure over 50 indicates that prices are rising, and the higher the figure, the stronger the increase. Any figure below 50 indicates that prices are falling. However there is a north-south divide with the average reading for the north of England in September at 54.9 and the south of England at 64.1. This is the second widest gap between the two readings this year. While households in all UK regions perceive that property prices rose in September, Londoners perceived the highest rate of house price growth over the course of the month, followed by those in the East of England. However, in Yorkshire and the Humber perceptions of house price growth eased notably in September after rising for the previous three months to reach 60.4 in August. While households in the region still perceive that prices are rising, they are reporting that the pace of increases has slowed, with a reading of 54 this month. The index also shows that households in all UK regions expect house prices to rise over the next 12 months, led by households in the East and South East of England while some 5.9% of households expect to buy a property over the next 12 months, while a further 6.4% said that they would purchase a house within one to two years. The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, rose in September to 70 from 69.5 the previous month. However, the future HPSI remains well below its peak of 75.1 achieved in May last year, the report points out. ‘UK price sentiment remains in positive territory, and has stayed broadly stable since the election in May. However the north-south divide is evident, with the average reading for the north of England in September at 54.9 and the south of England at 64.1,’ said Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank. ‘This is the second widest gap between the two readings this year. Overall, households expect prices to rise over the next 12 months, with eight times as many households anticipating a rise in the value of their home as anticipating a decline,’ she explained. ‘Sentiment is being underpinned by the improving economy, with positive employment data as well as wage growth boosting buyer confidence. At the same time a shortage of stock on the market is serving, in some cases,… Continue reading
UK residential property prices forecast for steady growth in next five years
House prices in the UK are expected to continue growing, with steady rises over the next five years across the country, the latest five year forecast shows. Cumulative growth in UK prices will total a little over 18% in the five years to the end of 2019, according to the latest forecast report from real estate firm Knight Frank. It says that while political risk for the prime London property market has fallen, affordability constraints will limit price growth in the near term, and predicts that overall UK rents and prime central London rents will rise 2.2% and 3.5% respectively in 2015. However, the risk that UK interest rates rise more rapidly than expected or that the global economy suffers a notable slowdown in activity remain the biggest risks to the UK housing market. It explains that the cumulative impact of recent and future reforms to Stamp Duty, mortgage interest relief for investors, Capital Gains Tax and IHT will take some time to work through the UK housing market. ‘Despite the pace of tax change, our view remains that it is interest rates and economic performance which will shape the outlook for prices and demand,’ the report adds. In the UK as a whole the forecast predicts house price growth of 3.5% for 2015, 2.5% next year, 3% in 2017, 4% in both 4.0% 2018 and 2019, to a cumulative 18.2% over five years. It also shows that while London saw growth of 17.8% in 2014 this is unlikely to be repeated with growth of 3.5%, 4%, 5%, 5.5% and 5.5% predicted. There is a similar pattern for the South East which saw growth of 10.6% last year, with the current forecast for 5% this year, 3% in 2016, 3.5% in 2017 and 5% for the two following years. The South West had growth of 8% in 2014 but this will fall to 4% this year, then 2.5%, 3%, 4.5% and the 4%. The prediction for East Anglia is 4.5% in 2015, followed by 3%, 3.5%, 4.5% and 5%, in the East Midlands the forecast is for 3.5%, 2%, 2.5% and then 4% in both 2018 and 2019 while in the West Midlands it is 3.5%, 2%, 2.5%, 4% and 4%. For the North East the forecast is even at 3% this year followed by 2% in 2016 and 2017, then 3% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019. In the North West it is 3%, 1.5%, 2%, 3.5% and 3.5% while in Yorkshire and the Humber the forecast is for growth of 3% this year, 2% in both 2016 and 2017 then 3.5% in both 2018 and 2019. Wales saw annual price growth of just 1.4% in 2014 but this is expected to rise to 3% this year followed by 2% in 2016, 2.5% in 2017 and then 4% in both 2018 and 2019. Scotland is forecast to have growth of 3.5% this year, 2.5% in 2016, 3% in 2017 and then 4% in both… Continue reading
House price growth confidence hit new high in UK after general election
Confidence in the outlook for house price growth in the UK hit its highest level in four years following the general election in May, but dropped back last month. The dip in confidence in June comes despite continued rise in real wage growth, together with record low numbers of homes available for sale pushing average house prices over £200,000 for the first time ever, according to the Housing Market Confidence Tracker report from the Halifax. House Price Optimism (HPO) hit +68 in May 2015, and although it slipped back slightly in June to +64 it remains substantially higher than at the beginning of the year when it was +52 in the January survey. Nevertheless, while the May high was short lived, the percentage of Britons predicting an increase in the average property price of more than 5% over the next 12 months has still risen from 34% to 38% in the last quarter, comparing the March and June 2015 measures, respectively. This increased optimism also corresponds with a fall in the net figure for buying sentiment from +35 in February 2015 to +25 in June 2015. Some 56% said in June they think it will be a good time to buy property over the next 12 months, compared to 61% who said this in February 2015. At the same time there’s been an increase in the net figure for selling sentiment from +27 in February 2015 to +32 in June 2015. With the Governor of the Bank of England saying improving economic figures means an interest rate rise has moved closer, 48% expect mortgage interest rates to be higher in 12 months’ time compared to 45% in the first quarter of the year. Londoners are less likely than those in any other region to say it is a good time to buy at 38% compared with 56% of Britons overall, making it the only region where the proportion who think the next 12 months will be a bad time to buy exceeds the proportion who think it will be a good time. Those in the South East are more confident than in any other region that house prices will be higher in 12 months’ time at 90% compared to 69% of Britons overall, with those in the North East and the West Midlands the least likely to say this, both at 59%. ‘Economic growth, together with increasing real earnings growth and historic low mortgage rates are all supporting the continued rise in house price optimism. It’s not been a smooth increase though as while there was a noticeable spike in optimism straight after the General Election result, this has now fallen off slightly,’ said Martin Ellis, housing economist at the Halifax. ‘A key factor in maintaining optimism over house price growth has been the fact that the stock of homes available for sale is currently at record low levels. If this growth is to be sustainable then we need to… Continue reading
