Tag Archives: outlook
House prices up for third month in a row across whole of UK
House prices have risen across all parts of the UK for the third consecutive month in October whilst stocks continue to fall, the latest residential market survey shows. The residential report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) says that prices are expected to rise by 4.5% per annum over the next five years, a cumulative increase of around 25%. It also says that new sales instructions extend their streak of uninterrupted decline stretching back to February but although sales growth has paused, expectations remain a little more positive. In October some 49% more chartered surveyors saw house prices rise across the UK, compared to 44% more in September. As prices rise in all areas of the UK, East Anglia has consistently seen the fastest rises over the last three months and 91% more chartered surveyors reported seeing a rise rather than fall in prices in October. In contrast, 25% more chartered surveyors saw prices rise in London over the last three months, with only 5% more expecting a rise in prices in the capital over the next three months, the lowest reading across the UK over this time period. However the 12 month view for the capital is still relatively strong. Contributing to the rise in prices across the country, demand from potential buyers grew across the UK in October with 12% more respondents seeing a rise in new buyer enquiries. The report also shows that demand continues to considerably outpace supply and the number of new instructions has decreased for the ninth month in succession, with 10% more chartered surveyors reporting a fall. The supply of new stock to the UK market has been in decline since the middle of 2014, with the number of new instructions only increasing in one of these months. Despite the lack of new stock to the market, sales activity is relatively healthy and following a small pick-up in agreed sales in September, activity was little changed this month across the UK. This chimes with HMRC transactions data, which continues to see the number of sales rising consistently over the year. In the UK lettings market, demand is also continuing to outpace supply in the three months to October. This has been the trend nationally for some time, with the growth in demand outstripping that of supply since 2009. Unsurprisingly, rental expectations remain strong and respondents continue to expect rents to rise over the year ahead. Rental growth is anticipated to accelerate to an average of just under 5% per year over the coming five years. ‘It is hard to get away from the issue of supply when it comes to the current state of the housing market. The legacy of the drop in new build following the onset of the global financial crisis is now really hitting home, with both the sales and letting markets continuing to show demand outstripping supply on a month by month basis,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief… Continue reading
British still confident about house price growth, latest sentiment report shows
British households are still confident about the outlook for house price growth even although there has been a sharp increase in the proportion of who are expecting an interest rate rise in the next 12 months. Continued talk over the likely timing of an interest rate rise has seen a spike in the number of people who expect both mortgage and savings rates to be higher in 12 months’ time, according to the quarterly Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker report. The data shows that 58% now believe mortgage interest rates will be higher in 12 months compared to 48% the second quarter of the year and 35% expect savings interest rates will be higher, up from 26% in the previous quarter. Alongside annual house price inflation running at 9% and the average house price standing at £204,674, house price optimism remains high at +63 in the third quarter compared to +64 in the second quarter with 68% now expecting the average property prices to be higher in 12 months’ time and just 5% expecting it to be lower. The figures from the report also shows that there has been a further fall in the proportion of who think it will be a good time to buy in 12 months’ time, from 56% in the second quarter to 53% in the third quarter. But despite the apparent stability in house price expectations, there has also been a drop in selling sentiment, with the proportion who believe the next 12 months will be a good time to sell, falling seven percentage points to 52% from 59% in the second quarter. This brings positive selling sentiment back down to the levels seen in early 2015 and it is now at its lowest level for a year. Regionally, lower levels of people in London report a positive buying sentiment as just 40% said they thought the next 12 months would be a good time buy compared to Scotland at 77% and the North of England at 58%. Conversely, in terms of positive selling sentiment, London sees 64% saying ‘the next 12 months will be a good time sell, compared to 48% in Scotland, 47% in the North of England and 43% in the Midlands. ‘While economic optimism appears to have tailed off in the last quarter, house prices have continued to increase and the underlying pace of house price growth is strong. This has helped to maintain the expectation that house prices will continue to rise, despite more people expecting interest rate rises in the next 12 months,’ said Craig McKinlay, Halifax mortgage director. ‘The factors behind the upward pressure on house prices include the continued lack of second-hand properties for sale on the market and the availability of low mortgage rates. Without an increase in supply it’s likely to mean that house price growth continues to be robust in the short term, even if interest rates eventually begin to increase,’ he added. The research also found… Continue reading
Northern Ireland set to see strongest house prices growth in UK in 2015
Northern Ireland is forecast to see the highest house price growth in the UK this year, with the latest report predicting an 11% rise in house values. The region is likely to see ongoing increases in prices according to the latest residential market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and Ulster Bank. This is based on a comparative analysis between our price indicator and data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) while for the UK as a whole the survey predicts that house prices will rise by 6%. The survey reports a net balance of 72% of Northern Ireland surveyors saying that prices increased in August, a higher net balance than all other UK region’s apart from East Anglia. Northern Ireland surveyors remain positive about the outlook too, with three month price expectations also amongst the highest in the UK. When it comes to sales, Northern Ireland surveyors are confident that increases seen in August will continue, with a net balance of 40% of respondents expecting sales levels to be higher in three months’ time. ‘A shortage of new instructions has characterised the Northern Ireland property market this year, with buyer enquiries outstripping the rate at which properties have been coming to the market,’ said RICS Northern Ireland residential property spokesman, Samuel Dickey. ‘As we move into the autumn, we should see more instructions, helping address this imbalance and ease upward pressure on prices. On the whole, RICS forecasts that average prices in Northern Ireland will have risen by 11% between the fourth quarter of 2014 and the fourth quarter of 2015,’ he explained. ‘This represents robust growth, but we should remember that this is from a low base, with average prices still someway from their 2007 peak,’ he added. The data also shows that in terms of prices, a net balance of 72% of Northern Ireland surveyors said that prices rose in the past three months. A net balance of 46% said that they expect prices to continue rising in the three months ahead. Continue reading
