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Interest from buyers in inner London new developments waning
A new analysis suggests that while there has been an increase in development in London the new homes are concentrated in a handful of areas and some are so pricey that interest from buyers is waning. The result is a deepening new build crisis in inner London in particular and the lack of interest in new builds is seeing prices fall. The report from London Central Portfolio shows that overall the number of new developments approved for construction has surged this year, with a substantial 20% increase in the planning pipeline since 2013, representing 106,208 new units. However, this pipeline is largely made up of projects in cluster areas around Tower Hamlets and south of the river in the Battersea-Nine Elms area where there is already a proliferation of new developments. This year, a further 33,239 and 18,665 units respectively are now scheduled to be built. New applications have also rocketed. Applications for 17,494 new units including 111 towers, buildings over 20 storeys, have been submitted, a 27% increase on 2013. This is equivalent to one new tower application every three days, of which 90% are located in Tower Hamlets and Wandsworth’s Battersea-Nine Elms development. Despite the ever increasing number of new developments, however, statistics have shown that the attraction of these new properties, where prices now average £914,532, is waning. According to LCP’s analysis of the Government’s Land Registry data, only 1,491 new units have been sold so far this year, a substantial 43% decrease on this time in 2015. This compares with older properties in inner London where transactions have remained static, 13,194 in 2016 compared with 13,190 over the same period last year. The analysis also shows that square foot prices have also fallen for new properties. Across the Battersea-Nine Elms stretch, for example, prices are down 8% on their 2014 high. This is in stark contrast to London as a whole where prices are up 23%. New build sales volumes are also significantly down, decreasing 43% on the same period last year but the prime central London market remains largely protected, due to its limited new build potential. Sales activity has been normal in the first half of this year ‘In light of the plethora of tax hits over the last few years, possibly exacerbated by the uncertainty of Brexit, it appears foreign investors, the majority buyer of new developments, may finally be turning away,’ said Naomi Heaton, chief executive of LCP. ‘These properties typically sell at a significant premium, averaging 25%, over older stock. History demonstrates that a saturation of overpriced commodity style property leads to softening prices, particularly during times of economic uncertainty,’ she explained. ‘In Tower Hamlets, for example, which undertook an extensive building programme before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), prices took six years to reach parity with their pre-recession level. In contrast in prime central London, where there is very limited new build due to the conservation of… Continue reading
Prime central London lettings market subdued in second quarter of 2016
Activity in the prime central London (PCL) lettings market has been subdued during the second quarter of 2016, according to the latest analysis report. The sector saw a reduction in demand and as a result a higher number of properties on the market, says the report from real estate from JLL. As a result prospective tenants have ample choice and this has led to falls in rental values in some price ranges, particularly where properties are not presented to the highest standard. The excess of supply has led to pressure on rents across Prime Central London. However, immaculate properties presented in first class condition are not dropping in value and while the lower end of the market had previously been relatively immune, rental values fell in the second quarter. On average rental values declined by 1.9% during the second quarter of the year and over the 12 months values fell by 4.3% with declines of 8% to 10% per annum across higher rent levels. Rental market activity has remained stable with the number of transactions in the 12 months to the first quarter of 2016 down by only 1% compared with the same period in 2015. But activity picked up slightly quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2016 with the volume of transactions increasing by 12% during this period to a similar level with the second quarter of 2015, with apartment lettings down by 1% but house rentals up by 8%. The main feature of the current market is an oversupply of stock, according to Neil Chegwidden, residential research director at JLL. ‘With weakened tenant demand, the increased supply of properties on the market is not being eroded. Available supply has also been boosted by owners electing to rent out their properties as opposed to selling them, given the diminished demand in the sales market,’ he said. ‘Sources of new demand have been limited in 2016 and this has left existing tenants in a strong bargaining position. Although most are choosing to remain in their current accommodation due to the upheaval and cost of a move, some are moving elsewhere to take advantage of these conditions,’ he added. According to Lucy Morton, director, residential agency at JLL based in Knightsbridge, the outlook for the third quarter of the year is much more optimistic. ‘Whilst the first six months of 2016 were challenging for the prime central London lettings market, the third quarter is more active,’ she said. ‘Along with an increase in transactions we expect the current oversupply of available properties to diminish as demand increases. We are seeing and letting to an influx of high net worth students and families eager to get settled before the start of the next school year. There is a marked increase in enquiries from relocation agents acting for the City corporations relocating expats into London,’ she added. Continue reading
Rents down in all Australian cities apart from Melbourne and Hobart
Residential rents in Australia fell in all cities except for Melbourne and Hobart in July taking the combined capital city median weekly rent to $483 a week, the lowest since December 2015. Combined capital city rental rates are $485 a week for houses and $467 a week for units, according to the latest rent index from real estate firm CoreLogic. Overall the index fell by 0.3% over the month and is 0.6% lower than it was in July 2015 and it is anticipated that the rental market weakness will persist and that on an annual basis rents will continue to fall over the coming months. A breakdown of the figures shows that over the past 12 months rental rates have increased in Sydney by 0.4%, in Melbourne by 2%, in Hobart by 6.2% and in Canberra by 1.9%. Rents fell by 1% in Brisbane, by 0.5% in Adelaide, by 9.2% in Perth and by 15.7% in Darwin. CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher pointed out that Hobart and Canberra are the only capital cities to have recorded stronger rental growth over the past year compared to the previous year. He explained that the market is currently seeing the softest wages growth on record and the declines are being cause by relatively high levels of housing investment following record highs recently and well as historically high levels of new dwelling construction as most of them are units which are more than twice as likely to be rented. He also pointed out that slowing population growth creates less overall demand for housing at a time when home commencements and the number of dwellings under construction were at historic high levels in March 2016. ‘The combination of all these factors means that landlords have little scope to increase rental rates in this current market. Potentially, the changing rental market conditions will have a flow on effect for older stock, particularly units given we’re seeing so much new unit supply being added to the rental market, much of which is located in inner city locations,’ he explained. He also said that while rental rates are falling and values continue to rise, gross rental yields remain at record low levels. ‘As a result of record low rental yields and the weakest rental market on record, those investors currently active are clearly focusing on capital growth potential,’ he added. Continue reading
