Tag Archives: middle-east
Investment in European commercial property up by 25% in 2015 year on year
A total of €64.5 billion was invested in European commercial property in the final quarter of 2015, which took volumes for the full year to €238.5 billion, a 25% increase on 2014. However, the fourth quarter total was only slightly up, by 0.5%, on the same quarter of 2014, indicating that investment growth lost a little momentum towards the end of the year, according to the latest European quarterly commercial property outlook report from Knight Frank. However, it shows that increases in investment activity were widespread in 2015, with the core markets of the UK, Germany and France all seeing transactions rise by more than 20%. Among peripheral markets, investment volumes grew particularly strongly in Italy and Portugal, both fuelled by surging demand from international investors. The strength of investor demand kept European prime yields under downward pressure throughout 2015, although the pace of yield compression slowed in the final quarter. Also, the European weighted average prime office yield came down by four basis points in the final three months of 2015 to an all-time low of 4.79%, largely on the back of yield compression in Amsterdam, Berlin, Brussels, Copenhagen and Lisbon. The report points out that with large amounts of capital continuing to target European property, strong investment activity is expected to continue in 2016. However, the exceptional growth in transaction volumes seen in 2015 is unlikely to be repeated. Knight Frank’s forecast is that European investment in 2016 will be broadly in line with 2015 volumes. Many of the factors that supported the investment market in 2015, including the stabilising Eurozone economy, low interest rates and wide yield spreads to other asset types look set to remain favourable to property investors throughout 2016, the report says. The report also points out that Eurozone GDP growth is forecast to improve modestly to around 1.7%, following an increase of 1.5% in 2015. The European Central Bank has indicated that it may be prepared to make further interest rate cuts to support economic growth at a time when its main refinancing rate is currently 0.05% and the deposit rate is already in negative territory at -0.3%. Supported by the stabilisation of the Eurozone economy, European occupier market activity improved healthily in 2015. On an annual basis, aggregate take-up in the major markets monitored by Knight Frank rose by 10%. This was despite falling take-up in Europe’s two largest markets, London and Paris, and was driven by the strong performance of German, Iberian and CEE markets. Prime rents remained stable in the majority of European markets in the fourth quarter but the Knight Frank European Prime Office Rental Index rose by 0.9%, driven by increases in Dublin, Frankfurt, London (City), Madrid and Stockholm. The report suggests that rental growth may spread to a wider range of cities in 2016 with Paris, for example, expected to see prime office rents increase following more than two years of stability. Continue reading
Continued UK house price growth underpinning positive sentiment
Households across the UK believed that the value of their home rose in March with the imbalance between demand and supply underpinning house prices growth. Some 25.1% of the 1,500 households surveyed for the latest House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Knight Frank and Markit Economics, across the UK said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, while 4% said that prices had fallen. This resulted in a HPSI reading of 60.5. This is the thirty-sixth consecutive month that the reading has been above 50. Households in every region perceived that the value of their home rose in March, however there were significant regional variations, reflecting wider trends in pricing across the UK market. Londoners perceived the biggest increase at 71.7, followed by those in the South East at 67.4 and East of England at 66.3. In Scotland and the North West the perceived rate of growth was slower at 53.3 and 54 respectively. The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, rose in March to 71.6, from 69.8 in February. March’s reading was the highest recorded by the index since August 2014. The rise in future sentiment was driven by households in southern England, with those in the South East at 81, the East of England at 80.3 and London at 78.9 were notably more confident than those in the North East at 61.4 and Scotland also at 61.4. ‘The fundamentals for the UK housing market remain steady, especially around mortgage costs which remain at record lows. The imbalance between demand and supply of housing is also underpinning house prices. The delivery of new homes remains some 30 to 40% below the levels needed to start to address the annual shortfall of housing in the UK,’ said Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank. ‘There have already been several large targeted government policies to try and boost development and ease the path of first time buyers and it is notable the future sentiment reading for 25 to 34 year olds is the highest it has been for 15 months,’ she pointed out. ‘As reflected in the index, the sound fundamentals of the market will combine to support overall prices in the coming year, but as the index also reveals, the market will continue to be multispeed across regions and price bands,’ she added. Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, explained that the latest survey is a clear signal that UK house prices have stayed on an upward trajectory throughout the first quarter of 2016. ‘One of the factors supporting price sentiment seems to be the expectation that interest rates will remain ultra-low for longer, and this belief has become more widespread so far this year. Households’ current price sentiment is stronger now than at any time over the past 17 months, but the economic landscape is not lacking in potential headwinds for buyer confidence,’… Continue reading
Residential rental market in Australia weakest since 1996
Rental growth rates in Australia continue to show their weakest performance since 1996 with a rise of just 0.3% in capital cities in February and no change year on year. The latest CoreLogic RP Data Rent Review report suggests that over the coming months rental rates could begin to fall on an annual basis due to additional new rental supply entering the market. A breakdown of the figures show that rental rates have increased over the year in Sydney by 1.5%, in Melbourne by 2.2%, in Canberra by 1.6% and were unchanged in Hobart. Rents fell 07% in Brisbane, by 0.4% in Adelaide, by 8.4% in Perth and by 13.3% in Darwin. This takes the current weekly rental rates to £488 for houses and $467 for apartments, the data also shows. Overall rental rates have been sitting at around $485 per week for the past year. In the last year rental rates had increased by 1.7% highlighting that the slowdown in rental conditions has been quite sharp over the year and Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin are currently experiencing some of their largest annual falls on record. Indeed, all capital cities are experiencing annual rental changes which are well below their decade average levels. ‘With construction activity set to peak over the next 24 months, and with many new properties still to settle, there is a real possibility that rental rates will fall over the coming months,’ said research analyst Cameron Kusher. ‘Based on our expectations, landlords have little scope to lift rental rates while for renters, it potentially means more surety in securing accommodation and the potential to upgrade into a higher level of accommodation for a similar cost,’ he explained. ‘The cause of this current slowdown in rental growth is falling wages, excess rental supply in certain areas and lower rates of population growth and population mobility impacting on demand for rental accommodation,’ he added. Continue reading
