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English farmland prices fall in first quarter of 2016

English farmland values fell by 3% in the first quarter of 2016 with average prices dropping back below £8,000 an acre, according to the latest index. Year on year farmland prices fell 2% but they are still up 32% over five years, up 176% over 10 years and up 4,886% over 50 years, the data from the Knight Frank Farmland Index shows. However, the drop was the largest quarterly decline since the 5% slide that occurred during the final three months of 2008, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers bank. ‘Given the significant issues weighing on the market at the moment, a period of readjustment is perhaps unsurprising. Agricultural commodity prices remain low with little prospect for a strong rebound in the short term, while the potential implications of a UK exit from the European Union are adding further uncertainty,’ said Andrew Shirley, head of rural research at Knight Frank. ‘To put the drop into context it should also be noted that the average value of farmland is still only £18 an acre lower than it was at the end of 2014, and remains almost 180% higher than it was 10 years ago. And despite falling in the two quarters after Lehmans’ collapse, farmland values had recovered all of their lost value and more by the end of 2009,’ he explained. Shirley also pointed out that while last year the feeling was that the In campaign was going to win the EU referendum relatively comfortably, now the polls are predicting a much tighter result, with neither side of the argument yet to establish a convincing lead. ‘Predicting where values will head in 2016 and beyond is almost impossible until we know the results of the EU referendum in June. In the case of a Brexit much will depend on for how long DEFRA commits to providing a replacement system of support payments,’ he said. ‘But if sterling weakens for a prolonged period as some analysts predict, this would make UK grain and meat more competitive on global markets. UK land, which is already cheaper than in some EU countries, may also become more attractive to international investors,’ he added. ‘Whatever the outcome, we are still seeing strong demand from farmers who are either not reliant on EU subsidy payments or have taken the long term view that expansion is the way forward for their businesses,’ he concluded. Continue reading

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UK house prices up 7.6% year on year, down slightly from previous month

UK house prices increased by 7.6% in the year to February 2016, down from 7.9% in the year to January 2016, taking the average price to £284,000, the latest official figures show. House price annual inflation was 8.2% in England, 2.8% in Wales, and 2.4% in Northern Ireland. But prices fell by 0.8% in Scotland, the data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) also show. Annual house price increases in England were driven by year on year growth of 11.4% in the South East, growth of 10.3% in the East and growth of 9.7% in London. Excluding London and the South East, UK house prices increased by 5% in the 12 months to February 2016. Also excluding London and the South East, the average UK mix-adjusted house price was £216,000. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices increased by 0.4% between January 2016 and February 2016, compared with an increase of 0.8% in average prices during the same period a year earlier. The index also shows that in February 2016, prices paid by first time buyers were 8% higher on average than in February 2015 while for existing owners prices increased by 7.4% for the same period. London continued to be the English region with the highest average house price at £524,000 and the North East had the lowest average house price at £158,000. London, the South East and the East all had prices higher than the UK average price of £284,000. David Brown, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, explained that while annual growth was down slightly he believes that UK property prices are certainly on a solid footing and despite the regulatory knocks over the past year, London remains one of the leading regions out in front. ‘Government intervention has prompted a lot of yo-yoing in the housing market of late, and the last week of March was one of the busiest we’ve ever experienced. A sense of urgency was palpable in the last few working days leading up to the implementation of higher stamp duty on second homes and buy to let purchases, and solicitors were working around the clock to service more than quadruple our average number of purchase completions per day,’ he explained. ‘Now we’re over the hump and this immediate buy to let incentive has passed, activity is sure to level out into the summer months, but continued high levels of buyer demand will help to keep London house prices strong,’ he added. Rob Weaver, director of Investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, pointed out that first time buyers are still feeling the pinch, with average prices paid by them of £214,000. He believes that as the rate of inflation on new builds is accelerating more than existing housing stock, demand is still outstripping supply but a mood of uncertainty over the June referendum on the country’s future in the European Union could slow house price growth. He also believes that a dip… Continue reading

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Call for next mayor of London to form policy that will meet chronic housing shortage

The organisation that represents house builders in the UK has issued a blueprint for London’s future housing supply which hopes that politicians in the city will take it on board when forming policy. The Home Builders Federation (HBF) says that its 10 point blueprint, Capitalising on Growth, should be taken into account by this year’s candidate in the London mayoral election when declaring their policies for housing in the city which is desperately short of new homes. Current London mayor Boris Johnson is regarded as having done a lot to boost housing supply and put in place a number of measures to continue his vision but he is not standing for mayor this time. The HBF wants the candidates to adopt 'tangible, workable and realistic' policies to deliver the increases in housing supply and build on the significant increases in the number of new homes being built over the last two years. The document includes recommendations that the next mayor of London ensures sites are viable and deliverable by introducing realistic levels of affordable housing and supporting the delivery of specialist private rented housing. It also calls on the next mayor to make better use of and improve London's existing estates while working with authorities in the wider South East to create a strategic approach to delivering homes that can support London's growth. The blueprint says that the mayor neds to act as a hub to coordinate efforts by all the public bodies with land holdings in London so that more land actually comes forward for house building and it calls for more underused commercial spaces to be turned into homes. ‘We welcome the very vocal commitments of candidates to increase housing supply in London. We now need to see realistic, workable policies to be developed that will allow these homes to be built,’ said HBF executive chairman Stewart Baseley. ‘If London is to maintain its status as the world's capital city and keep on powering the national economy, it must continue to attract people, businesses and investment. The capital's chronic housing shortage and resultant affordability crisis now threatens London's status as a global powerhouse and can only be solved by a sustained increase in supply,’ he explained. ‘In just two years, housing supply has increased by over 25% but we are still only delivering around half the number of homes needed. We need to maintain a strong investment environment for developers, keep sites deliverable and ensure that planning resources are in place so that builders can obtain planning permission and get on site as quickly as possible,’ he added. Continue reading

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