Tag Archives: middle-east
Investment in rural land in the UK seeing weakening returns
A weakened investment performance suggests that confidence in the rural land market in the UK is cooling after years of great returns. The IPD UK annual rural property index shows that total return recorded in 2015 was 5.5%, down from the 10.4% recorded in 2014. It is the most subdued return since 2008 and reflected a market cooling after several years of very robust returns in line with other investment classes. Sentiment was tempered by weakening commodity prices, and more recently by political discussions around Britain exiting the European Union. The report says that this caution around future market uncertainty was most reflected in rural land capital growth, which slowed to 4.1% in 2015 from 8.9% in 2014. This marked the lowest growth since 2008 when values depreciated. The decrease in the rate of capital growth contributed the most to the decline in the total return. The restraint in capital value growth was most pronounced in South East, where growth declined to 5.8% from 17.9% in 2014. There was also significant moderation in capital value growth across Eastern England, East Midlands, and Yorkshire and Humberside regions. Northern England and Scotland recorded the slowest value growth at 1.1%. Rural income return, however, held relatively steady at 1.3% compared to 1.4% in 2014, the figures in the annual index also show. ‘The weakened investment performance suggests confidence in the land market is cooling down after years of great returns,’ said Colm Lauder, MSCI vice president. ‘Moreover, the uncertainty created by discussion over Brexit and the potential effect of such a move on agri-food exports hit the confidence of farmers to increase rental holdings or invest further,’ he explained. He added that investors were concerned that it will be some time before there is a clear picture for the agricultural economy. MSCI also recorded a total return of 10.8% in 2015 in the IPD UK Annual Forestry Index, which marked a decline from a total return of 18.6% in 2014, the most subdued return since 2008. The index report points out that the decline is despite healthy demand for timber and wood products. However, a strengthened pound sterling versus euro and Scandinavian currencies put British wood products at a disadvantage in export markets. And it explains that British timber is heavily dependent on the exchange rate value of the pound. The significant gap between Euro and Swedish Krona denominated import prices and home grown prices denominated in the British pound narrowed significantly, which rendered Scandinavian exported sawn timber more competitive in 2015. Consequently, imports from mainland Europe rose at the expense of UK timber growers, whose timber sale returns in turn declined due to weakening saw-log prices. Subsequently the medium term run of forestry property price returns were impacted as investors and analysts made the adjustment. ‘The total return from UK Forestry of almost 11% is… Continue reading
Buy to let landlords face paying more for a mortgage in the UK, it is claimed
Buy to let investors could face paying an extra £10,000 to get a mortgage after a crackdown on dangerous debts by UK lenders. Watchdog the Prudential Regulation Authority is concerned that some landlords are overstretching themselves and will face difficulties when interest rates rise and it is expected that the banks and building societies will start making new hefty charges from September 2016. As a result, it is forcing lenders to run stricter tests to see whether an investor can afford the loan. Currently, investors have to prove they would earn enough from the rent to cover their repayments, but the new plan demands proof they would still be covered if rates rose by at least 2%. Under the new tests, banks and building societies will want evidence of a yield of at least 5.2% to qualify for a 25% deposit loan. This would mean earning £7,800 a year from rent on a £150,000 home before paying the mortgage. To pass the tests, investors will have to either raise rents to ensure they would be covered if interest rates soared, or reduce borrowing. However, according to Peter Armistead of Armistead Property, savvy investors can absorb these new charges by buying cheaper property with higher yields. ‘Clearly the investors most at risk are those with smaller deposits who buy property in parts of the UK where rents are low compared with house prices. This is a particular problem in places such as London and the South East where the average annual returns between 2010 and 2015, was just 4.86% in outer London and 4.71% in the City, according to LendInvest,’ he explained. He pointed out that house prices in London are about five times what they are in parts of the North West, but salaries are only 30% higher. Manchester and Liverpool deliver some of the best rental yields, with Manchester recording average annual rental yields of 6.02% over five years, followed by Liverpool with 5.15% yields. He also said that an average residential property in Manchester is just £155,000, while a flat in a good area, costs as little as £120,000. A property in Manchester can provide a 5% minimum cash rental yield and a typical 12% total cash yield, including 7% capital appreciation. Demand for rental accommodation is strong and by comparison with other regions, housing is cheaper. ‘Landlords will find the best returns in urban areas, with a concentration of students and young professionals. If investors can purchase cheaper properties with better yields, they will have the opportunity to protect and boost their profits in the longer term,’ added Armistead. Continue reading
EU vote contributing to slow down in home lending in the UK
A further slowdown in home lending in May ahead of the referendum on the future of the UK in the European Union means house purchase lending activity has fallen to a 12 month low. There were 65,113 house purchase approvals, down 1.7% from 66,250 the previous month, according to the latest Mortgage Monitor from residential chartered surveyor e.surv. This marks a 12 month low in lending levels and is the lowest monthly figure for home purchase loans since the 64,626 granted in May 2015. It follows monthly declines of 5.8% in April and 3% in March meaning volumes have fallen 10.5% over the last three months and the report says that the political uncertainty ahead of the EU Referendum may be causing caution amongst lenders and borrowers alike. The recent falls represent a marked turnaround from the peak in lending seen at the start of the year. January and February both saw strong numbers of house purchase approvals granted at 73,060 and 72,512 per month respectively as buy to let landlords and second home buyers pushed through purchases ahead of the stamp duty changes in April. Now, by comparison, the lending market is settling back into its usual rhythm. On an annual basis however, house purchase lending rose marginally in May by 0.8%. The proportion of small deposit lending also dropped slightly in May comprising 18.4% of total home lending, down from 19.1% the previous month. Meanwhile, lending to large deposit buyers, those with a deposit of 60% or more, picked up significantly and now makes up 30.7% of all borrowing. Richard Sexton, director of e.surv chartered surveyors, said that despite the uncertainty the mortgage market remains on an even keel and home buyers have more options than ever as lenders work to expand their range of mortgage options further. He pointed out that new mortgages with longer repayment terms and innovative inter-generational mortgages are offering financial buoyancy aids for buyers but there can be little doubt that the referendum is causing some nervousness within financial circles and bringing new unknowns with it. ‘This political milestone could impact the UK’s economic outlook and slowing growth could pose problems of its own for both lenders and borrowers. Juggling these challenges will be key to maintaining the current health of the mortgage market and lenders should brace themselves for possible surprises,’ he explained. ‘Faced with this uncertainty, it’s perhaps no surprise that home lending levels are falling slightly. The result is a slight tail off in the middle of the year as home buyers pause for thought and lenders are gifted more time to investigate the potential of offering additional mortgage choices. A lull in buy to let lending following April’s stamp duty changes has also added to this calming in the market,’ he added. The report also shows that small deposit loans(to buyers with a deposit worth 15% or less of their properties’ total value totalled 11,981 in absolute terms in May,… Continue reading
