Tag Archives: middle-east
Prime central London prices down 0.2% in June
Average property in the prime central London market fell by 0.2% in June, making it the weakest monthly result since November 2014, according to the latest published data. It means that year on year annual price growth in this sector is down, 0.6%, according to the index report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank, pointed out that the index data for June largely covered the period leading up to the UK’s referendum on the country’s future in the European Union. ‘Weaker price growth, together with rising economic and market uncertainty surrounding the European vote, has prompted vendors to reduce asking prices over recent months,’ he explained. But he pointed out that this more realistic approach has resulted in an uptick in activity, most notably in the immediate aftermath of the referendum result on 24 June. Following the referendum the number of transactions across prime London was 38% higher than the prior week and 29% higher than the final week of May. ‘This positive story has been widely reported, but what has often been missed is the weakness of sales prior to the vote, which has flattered more recent sales data. While the reduction in asking prices has boosted recent activity, it would be wrong to ignore market risks,’ said Bill. ‘An initial reading of post-referendum data on new buyer registrations and viewings reveals both have slipped back slightly compared to the same period a month ago although it is still very early to draw firm conclusions,’ he added. Looking ahead, Bill said that political uncertainty in the UK will undoubtedly weigh on sentiment, and will be likely to last until at least the heads of terms of the new relationship between the UK and the EU are agreed. ‘A reduction in political risk, should allow mitigating factors to kick in and support the London market. A cut in the UK base rate, while unlikely to fully translate into lower mortgage rates, would be a positive for the property market. Similarly, recent and proposed rate cuts in markets like India and China and record low government bond yields make property a more attractive investment by comparison,’ he explained. The index report also shows that the current residential yield in prime central London is 3.1% versus 0.9% on a 10 year UK government bond. Bill also pointed out that the recent weakening of Sterling is having a positive impact on relative affordability for international buyers in the London market. For example, for a Hong Kong buyer effective pricing in prime central London is 21% lower than it was two years ago. ‘Looking at the market by price band, we see a more nuanced story. On a quarterly basis, while the whole market saw prices fall 0.3%, prices for sub-£1 million properties rose on average by 0.4%,’ Bill also said. The data also shows that this outperformance of lower price points within the prime London market is… Continue reading
Shortage of supply pushing up house prices in Ireland
A nationwide supply shortage has fuelled a rise of over 2% in the price of the average house in the last three months in Ireland. The majority of counties in the country recorded price increases in the second quarter of 2016 with a lack of supply exacerbated by would be commuters moving further from Dublin as they look for more affordable homes. The Real Estate Alliance Average House Price Survey shows that the average three bed semi-detached home nationally now costs €195,361, an increase of over €4,000 or 2.18% since the end of March and up 4.49% compared to the same time last year. ‘We are seeing firms who are in business for 50 years who have never experienced such a low level of supply, and this is responsible for causing sharp increases in prices in some areas over the past three months,’ said REA chairman Michael O’Connor. While prices in Dublin city and county grew by 1.4% to €363,333 since March, competition for scarce housing below the Central Bank’s €220,000 deposit limit in both the inner and outer commuter areas is fuelling an inflationary market. Prices in the commuter counties of Cork and Galway have risen by €5,000 to €214,588, a rise of 2.4%, while those in the rest of the country have increased by over €3,000 to €128,768 or 2.75%. Three bed semi prices in Kilkenny city rose by €20,000 or 12.5% in the past three months, a figure that is entirely driven by record low supply, according to Michael Boyd of REA Boyds. ‘Our analysis of the Price Register tells us that there are 15 less units per month selling in the county than this time last year and that this is the lowest level since these records began,’ he said. ‘We are finding that demand is strong, mainly from loan approved returned emigrants or Eastern European buyers. We desperately need new building to start, especially as prices for quality stock are now well into viable levels for builders to commence,’ he added. The survey also shows that as the flight to another of the outer commuter counties continues, prices in Laois have risen by €10,000 or 8% in the past three months while prices in Kildare have remained static at €242,500 in the four main towns, due to a low supply of suitable housing stock, combined with a relatively higher price to neighbouring counties. In contrast, Meath has now broken the €200,000 barrier at €201,250 following a 3.21% growth in three months, as Dublin based commuters move out to houses they can afford under the Central Bank’s deposit guidelines. In Wicklow, prices in Blessington have risen from €240,000 to €265,000 in a three month period, a rise of 10.42%, with agent REA Murphys advising that there is a bubble in the three bed semi market. Prices in the county as a whole have gone up by 4.44% to €235,000 over the past three months. Louth continues to act as a microcosm of… Continue reading
Signs that currency volatility could boost UK market, especially in London
Currency volatility sparked by the decision in the UK to leave the European Union could create a scenario where overseas investors make major profits by continuing to invest and store their wealth in prime property in London, it is suggested. Market conditions are ripe for opportunistic foreign investors, which could create a welcome increase in the level of sales enquiries received by London developers and give a lift to the British property sector, according to a report from Arcadis. Since the result of the EU referendum was announced, sterling has fallen relative to the euro and the US dollar with further falls forecast before the end of the year. The report suggests that buyers from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are now well placed to secure bargains in the London prime housing market by exploiting both a softening of property values and a favourable currency situation. Furthermore, with some Banks forecasting a recovery of sterling during 2017 and agents predicting some recovery of prime London house prices during 2018, those investing £2 million now may see their investments rise by as much as £250,000 in value, according to Mark Cleverly, head of commercial development at Arcadis. Although the appetite for opportunistic investment will depend on forecasts of further depreciation of sterling in the short term, the London prime market could soon see another influx of foreign investment. This would provide a timely boost for the UK construction sector in the long term, particularly if increased competitiveness is also matched by government funding for infrastructure, helping to underpin confidence in the new build sector. ‘The market volatility we’ve seen as a result of the Brexit vote is, perhaps ironically, going to re-open the luxury property market to overseas investors, as several of our clients have already reported a bounce in enquiries following the referendum. This influx of investment coming into the UK could boost British construction again in the future as well as giving shot in the arm to the Treasury through increasing stamp duty receipts,’ Cleverly explained. ‘For a market that, in some areas, has been stuttering for some time due to ongoing stamp duty hikes taking the steam out of buyer demand, the buying opportunity presented by recent events could be a big plus. More buyers means a more buoyant market which can only be good news for the industry,’ he added. Already there has been a surge in interest from overseas buyers, according to Benoit Properties International due to the plunge in the value of sterling. The firm says buyers could make a saving of around 12%. Matthew Lavin of Benoit Properties International said there has been a surge in interest in buy to let property from investors in the Middle East, Hong Kong and other countries with currencies pegged to the dollar. Within days of the referendum result the firm sold… Continue reading
