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Property prices in Ireland fall month on month for first time since January

Residential property prices in Ireland fell by 0.1% in June, the first monthly fall since January, but are still 6.6% higher than a year ago, according to the latest official figures to be published. This compares to a 0.2% rise in May with the data showing that price growth has slowed considerably from the 10.7% annual rise recorded in June 2015. The figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) also show that in Dublin property prices decreased by 0.7% in June and were 4.5% higher than a year ago. House prices decreased by 1% but are still 5% higher compared to a year earlier while apartment prices were 0.5% lower when compared with the same month of 2015. However, the CSO points out that it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series. The price of properties in the rest of Ireland increased by 0.5% in June compared with an increase of 0.4% in June of last year and were 8.6% higher than in June 2015. It means that house prices in Dublin are 33.5% lower than at their highest level in early 2007 while apartment prices in Dublin are 41.8% lower than they were in February 2007. Overall property prices in Dublin are 35.6% lower than at their highest level in February 2007. The price of properties in the rest of Ireland is 35.4% lower than their highest level in September 2007 and the national index is 33.3% lower than its highest level in 2007. The CSO will launch a new Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for Ireland in early September 2016 which will replace the existing monthly RPPI. ‘The new RPPI will be based on Stamp Duty returns made to the Revenue Commissioners matched with other administrative data. It will now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage based transactions,’ said a CSO spokesman. ‘The new RPPI represents a significant methodological improvement over the existing RPPI based on mortgage data from the credit institutions as it includes cash purchases, higher quality source data and more detailed locational characteristics in the price model,’ he added. Continue reading

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Housing and Finance Institute praises UK housing policies

Former British Prime Minister David Cameron and his then Chancellor George Osborne introduced strong housing policies that can achieve their target of a million new homes by 2020, it is claimed. Their housing legacy is the strongest for a generation and more than 750,000 homes were built during their term of office with final figures to be released in the coming months. According to Natalie Elphicke, chief executive of The Housing and Finance Institute, it is wrong to assume that Theresa May has inherited a full blown housing crisis and that not enough homes being built. ‘It is true we have some serious housing challenges, but it is also a fact we have made some extraordinary steps forward since David Cameron and George Osborne took control of the tiller in 2010. For two politicians perceived to be masters of spin and presentation, they failed to sell their ground breaking housing achievements while in government,’ she said. ‘But they really did preside over record breaking house building, a reformed planning policy and a package of reforms that leave our housing industry in a much stronger position than when they took office six years ago. Cameron and Osborne’s is the strongest housing legacy of any government for over 35 years,’ she added. She believes that Osborne put housing at the heart of Britain’s recovery and growth strategy, committing over £38 billion of public money into the sector and says this is a scale of public finance housing support that has not seen since the post war era. ‘Financial commitment has been matched by root and branch reform across all parts of government which impact on housing, planning, public finances, local government finance, local government powers and the government’s entire public land estate,’ she explained. A key part of their programme was giving back control to councils and Elphicke explained that a recovery which worked for everyone needed to devolve power to find local solutions. This included money, direct access to billions of pounds which could be borrowed directly by councils for housing, growth and community building through the Housing Revenue Account settlements and Prudential Borrowing. ‘There has been wholesale reform of planning through the introduction of the National Planning Policy Framework. This is helping councils and housing businesses alike understand what housing is needed and where. Action has been taken on empty homes, on better utilisation of existing social housing stock and on keeping Britain building,’ she pointed out. The HFI has identified the flagship Help to Buy scheme as a key driver to their success. Often misanalysed as a demand side boost, the original Help to Buy scheme was a supply side boost to address the immediate challenge that volume house builders faced, which was that new buyers did not have the higher deposits necessary to secure a mortgage after the credit crunch. The Help to Buy programme… Continue reading

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Pending home sales static in US in June, latest index shows

Pending home sales in the United States were mostly static in June but the latest index from the National Association of Realtors is now at its second highest reading over the last year. However, supply and affordability constraints prevented a bigger boost in activity from mortgage rates that lingered near all-time lows through most of the month and increases in the Northeast and Midwest were offset by declines in the South and West. Overall the NAR’s pending home sales index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, was up 0.2% month on month and is 1% higher than June 2015. But it is noticeably down from this year's peak level in April. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, a solid bump in activity in the Northeast pulled up pending sales modestly in June. ‘With only the Northeast region having an adequate supply of homes for sale, the reoccurring dilemma of strained supply causing a run-up in home prices continues to play out in several markets, leading to the last two months reflecting a slight, early summer cooldown after a very active spring,’ he said. ‘Unfortunately for prospective buyers trying to take advantage of exceptionally low mortgage rates, housing inventory at the end of last month was down almost 6% from a year ago and home prices are showing little evidence of slowing to a healthier pace that more closely mirrors wage and income growth,’ he pointed out. ‘Until inventory conditions markedly improve, far too many prospective buyers are likely to run into situations of either being priced out of the market or outbid on the very few properties available for sale,’ he added. One noteworthy and positive development occurring in the housing market during the first half of the year, according to Yun, is that sales to investors have subsided from a high of 18% in February to a low of 11% in June, which is the smallest share since July 2009. Yun attributes this retreat to the diminished number of distressed properties coming onto the market at any given time and the ascent in home prices, which have now risen year on year for 52 consecutive months. ‘Limited selection of homes at bargain prices is reducing the number of individual investors willing or able to buy. This will hopefully open the door for first-time buyers, who made some progress last month but are still buying homes at a subpar level even as rents increase at rates not seen since before the downturn,’ Yun explained. In spite of the slight slowdown in contract signings from April's peak high, existing home sales this year are still expected to be around 5.44 million, 3.6% higher from 2015 and the highest annual pace since 2006 when it was 6.48 million. After accelerating to 6.8% a year ago, national median existing home price growth is forecast to slightly moderate to around 4%. A breakdown of the figures show that in the Northeast the index was up 3.2%… Continue reading

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