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Rest of UK expected to catch up with London and South East price growth in 2015
In 2015 UK regions outside of London and the South East of England will catch up on the property price growth that has topped the market this year, according to agents. The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) predicts that in 2015 London and the South East will show slower growth in terms of price. With stamp duty reforms now in place, agents are hoping for greater supply in the market nationwide as there's more encouragement for people to buy and sell houses. ‘Areas outside London and the South East, where the market has been slow in terms of volume and price, will hopefully catch up with London and the South East in the next year,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. He pointed out that currently supply in terms of construction is too low to be able to meet housing market demands. ‘Although the number of new homes being built has risen, and the three main political parties have created large new build targets, the lack of capacity within the market means that the gap between supply and demand won’t close and we currently don’t have the resources to respond to the problem,’ he added. Agents also believe that the general election will cause uncertainty, whichever party is likely to come in to power and with the housing market being based solely on sentiment, any uncertainty may result in a temporary lull. However, Hayward said the general feeling is that this will have long lasting implications on the market. He also mentioned the expected interest rate rise next year. ‘At present it’s anticipated to rise in the latter part of 2015, and the Bank of England feels this will have little effect on current mortgage holders and first time buyers. However, our research among NAEA members suggests the impending rate rise will influence demand, with 70% of agents already reporting signs of demand dropping. It is likely that the imminent rate rise will continue to affect demand, as well as affordability,’ added Hayward. David Cox, managing director of the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA), explained that supply is also low in the private rented sector. ‘Simply put, we need more houses. Demand continues to outstrip supply. As new homes come on to the market at one end from both foreign investors and landlords in London and South East who are buying up portfolios in the north of the country we’re also seeing accidental landlords leaving the sector at the other end,’ he said. ‘However, even… Continue reading
UK asking prices down 3.3% in December, latest Rightmove index shows
This year is ending with the largest ever monthly fall in the price of property for sale in the UK with the average asking price down by 3.3%, the latest index figures show. This has reduced annual price growth to 7% compared with 8.5% the previous month and is a further indication of the slowing pace of growth, according to the data from Rightmove. However, it points out that it is important to note that the recovery remains countrywide with all regions recording positive price growth for the year and Rightmove forecasts a national average rise in new seller asking prices in the range of 4% to 5% for 2015. According to Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst, whilst a near £9,000 drop is the biggest ever reduction in the price of newly marketed property compared to the month before and a sign of a market continuing to cool, a fall is not unexpected in December. ‘Though sellers are fewer in number at this time of year, those that do come to market are often keener to sell so price lower in a bid to stand out. The overall picture for the year is still one of a much recovered property market, with sellers and their estate agents confident enough to be putting property on the market at a higher price on average than a year ago, although we predict a slower pace of price growth in 2015. This means that sellers and agents will have to work harder to achieve a sale next year,’ he explained. Rightmove predicts the South East will see the highest growth in prices next year as the London ripple effect continues and stock shortages remain acute. These factors mean that the East and South West regions also look set to perform better than the northern regions. It also says that London will not be the price rise powerhouse leading the rest of the country as it has been in 2014. Sectors of the London market will continue to re-adjust with several different forces at play. Shipside pointed out that affordability has already been stretched to its limit in some inner London locations, and there are also winners and losers with the Stamp Duty changes. The threat of mansion tax on properties over £2 million will remain a deterrent until at least May’s election. While buyer demand has tailed off during the second half of the year, there are now signs of fewer sellers coming to market too. In the last four weeks, 76,823 new sellers have come to market, down 4% on the same period a year ago and the second consecutive month that there has been a year on year fall. Rightmove also says that there are factors that could see this trend continue into 2015, exerting some modest further upwards price pressure. Stricter lending criteria may prevent some home-owners from being able to fund the trade up to the next… Continue reading
Scottish property prices bounce back after dip due to referendum vote
After a cooling in the market due to the referendum vote on independence, house prices in Scotland have now recovered, according to the latest index figures. Scottish property prices increased by 0.7% in October, taking the average house price to £164,798, just £717 below the pre-recession peak in May 2008. The LSL Property Services/Acadata house price index also shows that on an annual basis prices are up 5.7% and sales of million pound properties in particular have increased since the referendum. The biggest annual rise was in East Renfrewshire with price growth of 13.4%. But growth is not universal with annual price growth down 9.4% in the Scottish Borders and down 6.7% in South Ayrshire. On a month on month basis prices increased by 5.8% in East Dunbartonshire and by 3.4% in Fife but fell by 1.7% in East Lothian and by 1.8% in South Ayrshire. Even in Aberdeen, which has seen some of the highest price growth in Scotland, prices dipped by 0.5% in October. ‘After a run of monthly house price stumbles on the way to the landmark referendum, the Scottish property market has recuperated. Growth regained ground during October, and property values bounced back,’ said Christine Campbell, regional managing director of Your Move. She pointed out that this has returned overall annual growth in Scottish house prices to 5.7%, typically amounting to £8,850, over the past year, and property values in Scotland are making faster progress than across the North of England and Wales. ‘Since the independence question evaporated, a new ray of confidence and certainty is radiating through the market, as normality is resumed. The feel good factor is especially pronounced at the highest tiers of the property market, where political uncertainty froze activity most acutely,’ she explained. Indeed, sales of properties worth £1 million or above have more than doubled from September to October as high end homes began to change hands again. In fact, October 2014 saw the biggest number of million pound properties sold in a single month since September 2008. Campbell also pointed out that only three quarters of the country has seen price growth in the past 12 months and in the remaining areas, property values are below 2013 levels. ‘In these places, activity is vital to keep price growth sailing along, but house sales have slipped back 1% since September,’ she said. While overall, Scottish property sales in 2014 up to October are 14% higher than the same 10 months in 2013, this still only represents 65% of the average volume reached in the pre-recession period of 2004 to 2007. ‘The Chancellor’s revamp of stamp duty should go some way to shore up demand in the short-term, and set off more movement at the lower end of the property chain. But first time buyers have been the guiding light of the Scottish housing recovery, accounting for 46% of current sales in the property market,’ said Campbell. ‘For the bulk of… Continue reading
