Tag Archives: investment
UK housing market activity robust despite looming EU referendum
Housing market activity in the UK is robust despite the forthcoming referendum on the future of the country in the European Union, according to new research. Valuation activity in May rose by nearly a fifth on an annual basis with the total number of housing valuations carried out in May 2016 some 18% higher than in May 2015. The data from the latest monthly report from Connells Survey & Valuation also shows that month on month valuation activity in May decreased by 1% compared to April this year. John Bagshaw, corporate services director of Connells Survey & Valuation, believes the market is looking remarkably resilient ahead of June’s vote and he believes that the slight month on month cooling could still be a result of stamp duty changes that came into effect at the start of April. ‘However once that stamp duty related instability has passed, there appears to be a steadier annual growth and a more positive outlook for the housing market. Even if the EU referendum does have a measureable impact, one thing is clear, any slump hasn’t happened yet,’ he said. The report also shows that the first time buyer and remortgaging sectors continue to be stand out areas of activity, as the key driver of annual growth in May’s valuation market, up by 37% and 42% respectively, when compared to May 2015. However, on a monthly basis, May’s first time buyer valuation activity fell back 8% compared with April, whereas remortgaging activity increased by 3% over the same period. The buy to let sector experienced the sharpest year on year decline compared to other sections of the market, down by 38%. However when compared to May 2015, the number of valuations for buy to let purposes has also seen the greatest percentage growth compared to April, up by 8%. ‘Remortgagors are leading the market, underpinned by lenders offering a new set of favourable interest rates for existing homeowners. But first time buyers are also on the up. Factors such as low inflation, rising wages and government schemes are all helping new owners onto the property ladder,’ Bagshaw explained. ‘Even for the much downplayed buy to let industry, May was a good month. Valuations on behalf of landlords have been leading the housing market since April. Annual growth is likely to stay negative for buy to let activity, but the most recent signs are positive,’ he added. The report shows that there has been a relative steadiness of activity among home movers. The number of valuations for existing owner occupiers seeking to move home in May grew by 9% over the 12 months since May 2015 and contracted by just 1% compared to April 2016, in line with figures for total valuations activity. ‘Home movers have had a stable month and appear confident in the strength of the housing… Continue reading
UK rents continue upward trend but growth slowing
Rents in the UK continued to rise over three months to May 2016, although increases slowed more in line with house price growth, according to the latest index report. Average rent in the UK, excluding Greater London, is now £771 per month, some 4.4% higher than a year ago while the average rent in London is £1,563, up 6.2%. The data from the HomeLet rental index also shows that Scotland leads the way with rents rising faster than in any other part of the country. The report said that the figures provide some encouragement for both landlords and tenants. Landlords may have been expecting some impact from the increase in the supply of rental property in May, as those who rushed to complete buy to let property purchases before higher rates of stamp duty came into force in April 2016 began offering their properties to tenants. But HomeLet’s data suggests landlords continue to enjoy healthy rental yields after costs. As for tenants, they will be encouraged to see the pace of rent rises now beginning to moderate, particularly compared to a year ago. While an average rise of 4.4% means increases are still running ahead of inflation, there is some evidence of moderation of the long term trend, perhaps as affordability ceilings are approached. The slowing of the pace of rent rises in May is broadly in line with a similar cooling in the rate at which house prices are rising and may be part of a broader story about economic uncertainty ahead of this month’s referendum on the UK’ s membership of the European Union. Nevertheless, the May 2016 HomeLet rental index reveals that rents continue to rise in almost every area of the country, with 11 out of the 12 regions surveyed seeing an increase over the three months to the end of May. In Scotland, rents are currently rising faster than anywhere else in the UK, with new tenancies costing 10.6% more than in the same period a year ago. However, the East Midlands with a rise of 8.3% in rents compared to last year, is also showing strong gains. London’s rental market, where the average rent on a new tenancy is now £1,563, up 6.2 per cent, also continues to see rents rise more quickly than in most other areas of the country. The rental market is characterised by steady growth in rents as the number of tenants looking for property runs ahead of the supply in the market, according to Martin Totty, chief executive officer of Barbon Insurance Group, HomeLet’s parent company. He pointed out that this remains the picture in most regions of the country. ‘While this growth has begun to slow, which tenants will welcome, landlords will also be encouraged by the vote of confidence in the sector evidenced by the increase in buy to let completions in the past few… Continue reading
Pending home sales in US reach highest level for over a decade
Pending home sales in the US rose for the third consecutive month in April and reached their highest level in over a decade, according to the latest index data to be published. All major regions saw gains in contract activity last month except for the Midwest, which saw a meagre decline, the pending homes index from the National Association of Realtors shows. The index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, increased by 5.1% to 116.3 in April from an upwardly revised 110.7 in March and is now 4.6% above April 2015 when it was 111.2. After last month's gain, the index has now increased year on year for 20 consecutive months and Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that vast gains in the South and West propelled pending sales in April to their highest level since February 2006. ‘The ability to sign a contract on a home is slightly exceeding expectations this spring even with the affordability stresses and inventory squeezes affecting buyers in a number of markets,’ he explained. ‘The building momentum from the over 14 million jobs created since 2010 and the prospect of facing higher rents and mortgage rates down the road appear to be bringing more interested buyers into the market,’ he added. On the topic of mortgage rates, which have remained below 4% in 16 of the past 17 months. Yun pointed out that it remains to be seen how long they will stay this low. Along with rent growth, rising gas price and the fading effects of last year's cheap oil on consumer prices could edge up inflation and push rates higher. For now, he foresees mortgage rates continuing to hover around 4% in coming months, but inflation could potentially surprise the market and cause rates to increase suddenly. ‘Even if rates rise soon, sales have legs for further expansion this summer if housing supply increases enough to give buyers an adequate number of affordable choices during their search,’ he added. Following the housing market's best first quarter of existing sales since 2007, Yun expects sales this year to climb above earlier estimates and be around 5.41 million, a 3% boost from 2015. After accelerating to 6.8% a year ago, national median existing home price growth is forecast to slightly moderate to between 4% and 5%. A breakdown of the figures show that in the Northeast it climbed 1.2% to 98.2 in April, and is now 10.1% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index declined slightly by 0.6% to 112.9 in April, but is still 2% above April 2015. Pending home sales in the South jumped 6.8% to an index of 133.9 in April and are 5.1% higher than last April. The index in the West rose 11.4% in April to 106.2 and is now 2.8% above a year ago. Continue reading
