Tag Archives: investment
Vote on UK in the EU unlikely to have much impact on rental market
On the eve of the historic referendum in the UK on the future of the country in the European Union research shows that letting agents do not anticipate a major shift in the rental market. Whatever the outcome of the vote, lettings agents do not believe supply, demand, or rental costs will be significantly affected, according to the latest sector report from the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA). Some 65% of ARLA agents expect supply to stay the same if the UK votes to leave the EU, compared to just a fifth 22% who predict it will fall as international landlords pull out of the market. The research also found that 31% see demand decreasing, as relocating to the UK becomes a less attractive prospect, but over half, 55%, think it will remain as high as it currently is. In London, however, almost half, 43%, of agents expect the number of prospective tenants per property to fall in the event of a ‘Brexit’, as international demand weakens. While 19% of agents expect a Brexit result will cause upward pressure on rent costs, the majority don’t imagine a massive change for tenants’ rents, should Britain leave the EU. ‘There is no avoiding the EU Referendum at the moment; and whatever the outcome, we are likely to feel the impact of the fallout of this debate in different ways,’ said David Cox, managing director of ARLA. ‘However, it’s important to put this into perspective and not get carried away in a zeitgeist. As outlined in our recent Brexit Report, the lettings market hosts a large number of non-UK born citizens and any change in migration policy is likely to have an impact down the line, especially in London. However, our monthly report clearly shows the sentiment amongst members is that the immediacy of this effect is likely to be minimal,’ he pointed out. The monthly report also looked at the issue of stamp duty reforms. Two months since the extra 3% was added to buy to let and second homes some 37% of agents reported a fall in supply of buy to let properties. This figures was much higher in Wales, where 80% of agents saw a dip in supply in May, as well as East Midlands and Yorkshire where 50% of ARLA agents have seen a decline. Looking forward, nearly half, 48%, of agents expect supply will continue to fall as more landlords walk away from the market as a result of the mortgage interest relief changes coming into force next year. The research shows that month on month supply is consistently lower than in 2015. The number of properties managed per branch dropped in May, with agents recording an average 171 properties on their books. Demand also fell marginally last month, as agents registered 33 prospective tenants per branch, compared to 34 in April. ‘The EU… Continue reading
Residential property market in Dubai looking stable, says latest report
The residential real estate market in Dubai maintained its stability in the year to April 2016, despite prices falling, according to the latest analysis report on the emirate. Despite a 9% year on year drop across the mainstream market, the General REIDIN sale price index remained relatively flat on a monthly basis, with no noticeable changes in the performance of both apartments and villas, says the report. Dubai’s prime market continued to outperform the market average with the prime price index down 5% in the 12 months to April 2016 compared to the previous 12 month period, the report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. It says that it is encouraging that prices in the prime segment increased 2% on a quarterly basis between the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. The performance of prime apartments outweighed that of villas, with the index pointing to a 2% quarterly increase over the same period. In turn, prime villas recorded no significant price change. The Knight Frank report also says that a number of factors have supported this regulation in prices and are set to support the return of confidence to the market including the government commitment to infrastructure spending. It points out that while it is too soon to estimate the impact of the Expo 2020 on the residential sector, continued government spending on infrastructure projects geared towards the event such as Route Metro 2020 and Dubai Parks & Resorts will promote confidence in the market and is expected to draw further inward capital. There is also likely to be some control of supply as there is a general consensus among developers of the need to phase out residential projects in line with demand and strong liquidity with the residential real estate market in Dubai continuing to attract capital from strong liquid markets such as Saudi Arabia and India, two of the traditionally top buyers of real estate in Dubai. In Abu Dhabi, sale prices remained relatively stable on the back of a shortage in quality residential supply with the General REIDIN sale price index recording a 1% increase year on year in the first quarter of 2016. The report says that while demand has declined on the back of corporate restructuring and cutbacks in government spending, this has been balanced by a slowdown in the delivery of projects, thus keeping the market steady. ‘Looking ahead, the residential market in the UAE is expected to soften over the second half of the year. While it’s difficult to predict when the next growth cycle will be, we expect the residential market to level out by the end of 2016 before seeing gradual recovery in 2017. We expect prime residential properties will continue to outperform the market average in the short to medium term,’ the report says. ‘We expect Dubai to continue attracting investments both regionally and globally. However the outlook for the emirate in general and the real estate sector… Continue reading
UK property sales up slightly but still well below a year ago
Residential property sales in the UK increased by 1.5% between April and May 2016 but the month’s seasonally adjusted figure is 11.9% lower compared with a year ago. The latest report from HMRC says that the large increase in transactions for March 2016 followed by the substantial reduction in April is likely to be associated with the introduction of higher stamp duty rates on additional properties in April 2016. But it points out that whilst April and May 2016 are lower than the corresponding months in 2015, it should be noted that the total for March to May 2016 is still substantially higher than the corresponding period last year. The additional property rates were announced in the Autumn Statement 2015 for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and in the Scottish Government's draft 2016/2017 budget for Scotland. The report also says that additional non-tax factors may have played a role as well, for example the Bank of England's plans to curb buy to let mortgages resulting in a rush to purchase. The residential count includes properties paying the main and additional rates. Greg Bryce, managing director at SearchFlow, also believes that uncertainty surrounding the referendum on the future of the UK in the European Union has also been affecting the market and looking ahead activity levels in June look set to be dampened as buyers and investors are holding off any decision to purchase until after the vote. However, once the dust settles post referendum, it is expected that activity levels in the housing market will remain buoyant with a strong economy, employment level high, interest rates and mortgage rates low and the economic and housing policies unlikely to change very much. The market is expected to bounce back if the vote is for the UK to remain in the EU, according to Doug Crawford, chief executive officer of My Home Move. ‘Ultimately, high levels of demand for both rental and owner-occupied accommodation will drive transaction figures upwards,’ he said. The firms most recent forecast predicts that sales will rise by 7% this year and by 20% by 2020. The figures show there has been a continued ripple effect from the stamp duty change, according to Rob Weaver, director of investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner. ‘The desperation to complete before the April 1st deadline pulled forward thousands of housing transactions that would normally have happened in April or May. March recorded the highest number of transactions in a decade,’ he said. He also pointed out that overall, 2016 is beating 2015 with transactions for the first five months of the year up 13% on the same period last year. ‘If we vote Remain on Thursday, we can expect a rising trend in activity as buyers and sellers re-engage after the referendum,’ he explained. ‘Transactions should slowly rebuild as the summer months are historically strong. But the dire shortage of supply is the main reason why we see house prices on… Continue reading
