Tag Archives: investment
Landlords in UK urged to stay calm in face of EU exit vote
Residential landlords in the UK are being urged not to read too much into the decision by the country to leave the European Union, having gone through a turbulent period recently. Buy to let landlords are now paying a 3% surcharge in stamp duty on each additional property they buy to add to their portfolios and are also facing further tax changes. Now there are concerns that Brexit could affect their businesses. However, according to Richard Lambert, chief executive officer of the National Landlords Association (NLA), while leaving the EU is completely unknown territory, jumping to conclusions isn’t going to help anyone. ‘We welcome governor Mark Carney’s steadying words and his reassurance that the Bank of England and the Treasury have extensive contingency plans in place to ensure the country’s financial stability,’ said Lambert. ‘Any knee-jerk reaction will have a real impact on our members’ mortgages, tenants’ rents and overall confidence in the market. So we would urge the policy as regards to interest rates should be, to continue the Prime Minister’s analogy, one of steady as she goes,’ he added. In a joint statement, David Cox, managing director of Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) and Mark Hayward, managing director of National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA), said that in the short term the market can weather the uncertainty. ‘The outcome of the EU referendum will create a period of uncertainty among home owners, buyers, investors, landlords and developers. We can expect international investors to look a lot harder at the UK as a market and this will have a consequential impact upon the house building sector as investment may be stalled,’ the statement said. ‘In the short term we believe that both prices, and rents, will remain stable, but we cannot be certain about the next quarter as political instability, and market unrest, could lead through into prices in the housing market,’ it pointed out. ‘We believe that the UK housing market is resilient, as is the supply chain that drives it. But as we indicated in our Brexit report last month, the bigger impact may well be in the skills necessary to drive UK housing development, and this is now a major concern for UK buyers and renters,’ it added. Anne Wilson, senior tax manager of the tax department at Pierce Chartered Accountants, pointed out that tougher buy to let mortgage lending criteria has been announced. The rules will require lenders to carry out stricter stress tests on prospective borrowers or those wishing to re-mortgage to ensure that they have sufficient capital to cover repayments if interest rates increase to 5.5%. In the future, there will also be changes to the way that tax relief for interest payments on the purchase of residential lettings will be given in the tax computation. This will affect individuals, partnerships and limited liability partnerships which let out residential properties. At present there are no proposals for this restriction to… Continue reading
Residential mortgages unlikely to be affected in short term by Brexit vote
Home mortgages in the UK are unlikely to be affected immediately by the decision to leave the European Union, according to finance commentators. However, it could be good news for first time buyers if price growth slows and interest rates fall with some experts predicting that the Bank of England might reduce rates even further than the current historic 0.5%. In the short term, people’s attention will be on interest rates and what impact this will have on mortgage costs, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. ‘While markets are bound to react to the news, the question will be how long it takes for them to settle. We know the authorities will be mindful of this,’ said the CML spokesman. In the medium term, there will also be interest in the extent to which housing transactions are affected by economic uncertainty, and whether this will impact on house prices. The more quickly markets resettle, the lower the impact on the housing market is likely to be. However, any prolonged disturbance would inevitably impact the housing market. ‘For lenders, the treatment of customers and of mortgage applications will be business as usual. People who have received mortgage offers will not see them affected. People facing financial difficulty will continue to be treated constructively and positively,’ the CML spokesman explained. ‘Lenders remain open for business as usual. Mortgage pricing is unlikely to react instantly, although pricing may be affected in the foreseeable future because of the effect on lenders’ cost of funds arising from the perception of economic uncertainty. How long this lasts will depend on how quickly markets resettle,’ he added. Indeed, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, quickly announced that any measures needed to support financial markets and the UK economy would come into play. These measures could include a cut in interest rates that could reduce home owners' monthly mortgage payments, a measure repeatedly taken during the financial crisis of 2008. James Roberts, chief economist at real estate firm Knight Frank, believes that an interest rate cut is on the cards. ‘We expect the Bank of England, seasoned by the experience of financial crisis, to respond quickly. An interest rate cut of 25 basis points is a strong possibility at the Monetary Policy Committee's July meeting, or perhaps earlier if required,’ he said. Continue reading
UK commercial property market could see short term weakening due to Brexit
The UK commercial property market is likely to see a weakening in demand due to the decision of the British people to leave the European Union. Foreign investors in particular are likely to cool while the terms for the country to leave are thrashed out as uncertainty about direction and timing affect decision making, according to experts. Even if it is effectively ‘business as usual’ for the UK in terms of trade and legislation until 2018 when the actual exit is likely to take place, such a major change will inevitably create uncertainty in the economy and real estate markets, according to Chris Ireland, chief executive officer of JLL UK. He explained that in the event of a well-managed exit these impacts will be largely confined to the UK. ‘In the short term we may see a weakening in occupier demand. The impact on rents may be limited by tight supply, but activity will be adversely hit while initial uncertainty about direction and timing continues,’ said Ireland. ‘Investor sentiment may also remain subdued in the short to medium term. For property markets, the initial correction may be most severe but should be followed by an upturn as opportunities re-emerge in UK core markets and benefits of weak sterling are recognised. Sentiment and relative pricing will be key,’ he pointed out. ‘Much will depend on the speed of negotiation, the wider political picture and whether a clear direction of travel and timetable for an EU exit is established early on,’ he added. According to an analysis by JLL occupier demand will weaken in line with economic growth and declining business sentiment. The impact on rents may be limited by tight supply, but activity will be adversely hit. It also suggests that investor sentiment will deteriorate further, subduing capital flows in the short to medium term and there is likely to be a negative capital value adjustment over the next two years, estimated at a fall of up to 10% with yields moving around 50bp. It points out that London sectors remain most vulnerable to correction given current keen pricing and their multinational occupier base but much will depend on the speed of negotiation, the wider political picture and whether a clear and favourable direction is established early on. According to Mark Clacy-Jones of international real estate firm Knight Frank the decision will cause volatility across all investment markets, and real estate will be no exception and he predicts that uncertainty over future economic conditions in the UK will cause some deals on hold to be shelved, and occupiers will reconsider the amount of space they need outside of the single market. ‘A fall in the value of sterling, combined with falling property values will be a buy sign for opportunistic overseas investors once the initial correction has occurred. This will cause a widening yield gap as real estate yields rise and bond rates fall from further Bank of England monetary loosening and will make property… Continue reading
