Tag Archives: investment
Prime London property market prices down 0.2% in second quarter of 2016
Pre referendum uncertainty triggered further small price falls in the prime housing markets of London in the second quarter of 2016, according to the latest research. It also slowed growth in regional markets dependent on London buyers, according to the research report from international real estate adviser, Savills. A marginal 0.2% fall in the three month period prior to the referendum left average prime London values down 0.7% year on year and 1.4% below their pre December 2014 level, when stamp duty rates on high value homes were increased. Falls were most pronounced in prime central London where prices fell 1.4% in the quarter. This left values in London’s most exclusive markets on average 3.9% down year on year and 8% below their peak in the third quarter of 2014. Weakened sentiment and a slowing of the London market also impacted the prime regional markets, resulting in small quarterly price falls of 0.4% in the suburbs. Property in the inner and outer commuter zones around London saw marginally positive price growth in the quarter limited to just 0.2% and 0.9% respectively, as the market slowed in response to a lack of urgency amongst buyers. ‘There have been conflicting signals in the market in the period post referendum, which suggests the impact of a vote to leave the European Union will only become clear over coming months as the market finds its level,’ said Lucian Cook, head of UK residential research at Savills. ‘Falls in sterling have prompted some international buyers to re-enter the market, while there has also been a fair share of speculative bids from those hoping to secure a bargain. Against this context, sellers have generally taken a pragmatic approach around pricing without having to slash their expectations,’ he explained. ‘Prime regional markets are at a different stage in their cycle, having been slower to recover peak 2007 values, and therefore appear to have been less affected by pre referendum uncertainty,’ he added. Continue reading
French market not affected so far by Brexit vote
The decision by the UK to leave the European Union does not seem to have dented the French real estate sector with mortgage rates still low and currency differences still positive. Indeed, the vote coincided with a further drop for French mortgage rates to all time historic lows. These ultra-low long term fixed rates have in effect nullified the changes in exchange rates for British buyers and offer the opportunity to lock in long term value, according to John Luke Busby, private clients director at French Private Finance. He pointed out that a French repayment mortgage can now be found in the region of 2.15% fixed for 20 years nationally and perhaps down to 1.55% in Paris for some profiles. ‘This means that over a 20 year fixed rate mortgage period British buyers are now still ahead versus the highs of the pound against the euro last year,’ Busby said. ‘It is important to note that we have not had any withdrawals or cancellations on the basis of the referendum result from any of our ongoing applications. Whilst there will clearly be reflection around making new investment decisions in the French market for some UK buyers, investors from around the world are continuing with their purchases in France,’ he explained. ‘This trend is particularly noticeable in Paris where prices are starting to increase again, after a lull, and for investors earning in Dollars the euro is substantially cheaper. US dollar holders can now benefit from the double whammy of a strong currency and ultra-low interest rates,’ he added. Busby believes that overall there seems to be a quiet confidence emerging around the future of the UK economy whatever the result of the negotiations in Brussels or the UK Parliament. ‘There is confidence that, as of today, we remain in the EU so to all intents and purposes it is business as usual,’ he said. He also pointed out that all of the tax treaties relating to property are independent of EU membership for the British, who remain the largest non-resident buyers of French Property. Many regions in France are now starting to see growth in property prices, which herald larger gains once the EU economy can get going again,’ Busby added. ‘The mixture of the romance of French property ownership combined with soft property prices and ultra-low interest rates still conjure a compelling purchase proposition which is hard to ignore over the long term,’ he concluded. Meanwhile, one of the largest sellers of French property to British buyers has reported a 21% rise in sales in the first six months of 2016. Leggett Immobilier also says that since the referendum result enquiries have remained high with over 1,000 enquiries coming into the sales support team in the past seven days. Coupled with this Leggett Immobilier have had 34 offers accepted in the past week, a figure which is well above the weekly average. The firm’s figures show a 21% rise… Continue reading
Analysis suggests Brexit will have a varied impact on London property markets
The decision by the UK to leave the European Union is set to have a hugely varied impact across London's property markets with some likely to be worse off than others. According to a new analysis from independent property buying agency Black Bric, the sub-£2 million price bracket will continue to attract investors due to its favourable yields, good liquidity, and domestic demand. But the firm’s managing director Camilla Dell predicts that the same can't be said for the prime property market in London and the new build outer prime markets. ‘We expect the section of the market dominated by domestic buyers and those working in the financial services sector, predominantly £2million to £5 million but also up to the £12million to £15 million range, to potentially face some pressure linked to Brexit concerns,’ said Dell. ‘We do not expect the wholesale flight of financial services firms away from London, but it is likely that they will lose their passporting rights, or their ability to sell financial services across the EU if the UK does leave, triggering the departure of some financial services capacity to Dublin or the continent,’ she explained. ‘However, even relatively low numbers of bankers leaving areas such as South Kensington or Notting Hill where Europeans, in particular, tend to be concentrated could have a significant effect on local markets over the next couple of years,’ she added. Black Brick also expects the new-build outer prime market to suffer most from continuing uncertainty, having already experienced a lull period before the referendum vote. ‘The stock market has already heavily bid down builders linked to this part of the market, which is suffering from significant oversupply and the disappearance of the foreign investors who had supported it in recent years,’ said Dell. ‘Areas such as Nine Elms in Vauxhall and Earls Court in West London are particularly vulnerable due to oversupply of expensive properties aimed at the overseas investor. However, there are a handful of stand out developments, such as Television Centre, that we believe are likely to continue to prove popular, and there will certainly be bargains to be had, particularly on the secondary market,’ she pointed out. On the other hand, Black Brick expects the super prime market to be the least negatively affected, with the collapse of the sterling meaning that dollar buyers are actually factoring in a 12.5% increase in their purchasing power since before the referendum. ‘For the global elite buying properties at £15 million to £20 million or above, purchases tend to be about lifestyle choices, rather than business decisions, or are to diversify extremely large portfolios. Indeed, we are still seeing transactions continue. Brexit did not feature in conversations with clients in this part of the market before the referendum, and it is unlikely to be much of a factor now it is underway,’ Dell added. Meanwhile, London’s new Deputy Mayor for Housing James Murray has said there will be meeting with major developers and the… Continue reading
