Tag Archives: investment
PwC forecasts marked slowdown in UK housing market but no major crash
The UK should avoid a house price crash or a severe recession despite growth downgrades following the decision to leave the European Union, new research shows. UK growth had already eased from around 3% in 2014 to around 2% before the EU referendum due primarily to slower global growth, but the vote to leave the EU is likely to lead to a significant further slowdown. UK GDP growth is forecast to decelerate to around 1.6% in 2016 and 0.6% in 2017 according to PwC’s main scenario in its latest UK Economic Outlook report. Quarter on quarter GDP growth could fall to close to zero in late 2016 and early 2017 in this main scenario, but is then projected to recover gradually later in 2017 as the immediate post referendum shock starts to fade. The UK would avoid recession in this scenario, although the report notes that uncertainties around this central view are significant, with alternative scenarios showing GDP growth in 2017 of anywhere between growth of 1.5% and a fall of 1%. But even this latter relatively pessimistic scenario would not be a severe recession of the kind seen in the early 1980s or in 2008/2009. The main reason for the slowdown is projected to be a decline in business investment, particularly from overseas in areas such as commercial property. Construction companies and capital goods manufacturers could also be relatively exposed to this kind of short term cyclical slowdown, the report says. PwC anticipates a marked slowdown in house price growth, but no major crash. In PwC’s main scenario, UK house price growth is expected to decelerate to around 3% in 2016 and around 1% in 2017. After this initial dip, however, projected house price growth picks up again to around 4% in 2018 and an average of around 5% to 6% per annum in the longer term as persistent supply shortages keep house prices rising faster on average than earnings. PwC estimates that average UK house prices in 2018 could be 8% lower than if the UK had voted to stay in the EU, although this would still leave them 8% higher on average than in 2015. The estimated impact of Brexit varies by region. The report says that average house prices in London could be around £60,000 lower due to Brexit than they would otherwise have been by 2018, in contrast to a reduction of £10,000 in Scotland and just £8,000 in the North East. ‘We think there are four main reasons why the Brexit vote will lead to a slowdown in the housing market in the short term: the deterrence of foreign investment, uncertainty regarding the future of EU nationals living in the UK, a reduction in consumer confidence and turbulence in the banking sector,’ said Richard Snook, senior economist at PwC. ‘While these factors will weigh heavily on the market in the short term, we expect a gradual recovery from 2018 onwards as market… Continue reading
Asking prices down across England and Wales post Brexit vote
The price of property coming onto the market in England and Wales has fallen by 0.9% or £2,647 with momentum continuing due to a supply shortage, according to the latest asking price report. Activity is within usual expectations for the run-up to the summer holiday season and buyer demand in the two weeks since the European Union referendum result is consistent with 2014 although down on 2015. The monthly report from property portal Rightmove points out that the same period in 2015 benefitted substantially from a post general election boost so enquiries this year are down 16% compared to that period. It adds that as 2014 was not distorted by the election it is a better basis for comparison, and buyer enquiries are at the same level as the like for like two weeks in 2014. Since 2010 the month of July has recorded average price falls of 0.4%. The Rightmove data shows that new seller asking prices fell by 1.2% or £7,407 this month in Greater London while in inner London they fell by 2.3% or £19,051. The seven cheapest inner London boroughs all saw price of newly listed property falling while asking prices in outer London were unchanged. Asking prices fell by 0.7% month on month in the North East, taking the average to £147,251 but are still up 0.3% year on year. In the North West they fell by 0.5% month on month to £176,277 and are 3.6% higher than a year ago and in Yorkshire and Humber they were down 2.1% month on month to £172,412, and up 1.3% year on year. In the West Midlands month on month prices were down 1.6% to £200,129 and still up by 3.6% year on year while in the East Midlands they were down 0.2% month on month to £190,192 and are up 3.9% year on year. The East of England saw asking prices fall by 0.7% to £313,255 but they are 7.3% up compared to a year ago. In the South East they fell 0.6% to £386,988 and are up 6.7% year on year while in the South West they were down 0.4% to £286,155 and up 5.2% year on year. In Wales asking prices fell by 2.3% month on month, taking the average price of a newly listed home to £177,280 but prices are 2% up compared to July 2015. According to Rightmove, most agents report market momentum continuing due to shortage of suitable property for sale, buyers fearful of missing out on scarce choice, and affordability and availability of low mortgage rates. Sellers seem undeterred as compared to the same period last year, the two weeks pre-referendum saw the number of new properties coming to market down by 8%, and the two weeks post referendum saw them up by 6%. Overall the figures covering the last four weeks, two weeks before and two weeks after the referendum, give an early but reassuring view into the short term effect of the political turmoil… Continue reading
Hong Kong saw residential property prices stabilise in June
Residential property prices in Hong Kong stabilised in June with more activity mainly in the primary sector, as developers launched new projects with deep discounts and other enticements. According to the Land Registry, residential sales in June edged up 0.7% month on month, reaching 4,620 units. The gain was attributed mainly to robust activity in the new homes market. Meanwhile there have been more home buyers returning to the market looking for bargains, according to the latest monthly market review report from international real estate consultants Knight Frank. It points out that several new residential developments were oversubscribed in June. One example was Park Yoho Venezia in Yuen Long, which managed to sell over 90% of its available units within hours on the first day of the launch. This trend is expected to continue, with developers offering deep discounts and aggressive mortgage schemes to boost sales. Interest in the ultra-luxury residential market showed no signs of abating. For example, the top floor unit in Severn Villa on the Peak sold for HK$232 million or HK$170,463 per square foot, making it the most expensive apartment in Hong Kong. Knight Frank believes that high net worth individuals are expected to continue acquiring premium residential properties in Hong Kong given their scarcity and high status. The report also points out that the government of Hong Kong has announced that seven residential sites, capable of providing 4,800 flats, will be available for sale by application in the third quarter. As of the end of May, the number of homes pending pre-sale consent had risen 11% month on month to 14,526 units, the highest level in eight months, according to the Land Department. ‘Given the increase in supply and uncertainty brought about by Brexit, we maintain our forecast of a 5% to 10% drop in luxury home prices and up to a 10% decline in mass residential prices over the year,’ the report concludes. Meanwhile, in the commercial sector Grade-A office leasing on Hong Kong Island remained subdued in June. On the supply side, tight availability limited choices in the market, while on the demand side mainland companies slowed their expansion pace in Hong Kong after the previous leasing boom. The report points out that the Kowloon East office market remained very active, with the key driver being relocation demand from tenants across the harbour. One reported example involved Kingfisher, which moved from Cornwall House in Quarry Bay to KOHO in Kwun Tong. Over the past few months, a number of co-working space operators have been aggressively expanding in Hong Kong, becoming one of the major sources of demand for office space. For example, WeWork reportedly took up large office space of about 60,000 square feet in Asia Orient Tower in Wan Chai last month. A US co-working space operator reportedly took up four floors, spanning 29,000 square feet in Soundwill Plaza in Causeway Bay. ‘Looking ahead, we expect rents in core business areas to rise… Continue reading
