Tag Archives: industry
UK referendum on European Union membership set to hit real estate markets
The forthcoming UK referendum on the country’s future in the European Union poses risks for the re sector due to the uncertainty it is creating, according to a new analysis report. This uncertainty leading up to the vote on 23 June is likely to have a somewhat paralysing effect on investor decisions on real estate purchases, says the report from Standard and Poor’s. It also says that should the country decide in favour of leaving the EU, known as Brexit, then the uncertainty will be prolonged during the subsequent exit negotiations and this may turn investor sentiment more negative. ‘This could potentially reverse the significant boost to real estate asset values that the UK and London in particular has experienced in recent years. Added to this, financial services firms, already under pressure to contain costs, may find an additional reason to reduce office space in London,’ the report explains. ‘Consequently, we consider the risks to the real estate sector of a Brexit may be most pronounced in the commercial real estate sector, particularly in the office segment, more than in retail and logistics,’ it points out. ‘We also think the effects will be more concentrated in London than other parts of the UK. Within the capital, the City of London would be hardest hit, because of a high concentration of international financial services firms,’ it adds. Given the possible negative consequences of Brexit, Standard and Poor’s said that its ratings on real estate investment companies, home builders, and structured financing in commercial and residential mortgage backed assets will require ongoing monitoring. It suggests that in the next few months ahead of the referendum, the uncertainty regarding the outcome of the vote may slightly disrupt the real estate markets. ‘We think it could lead to some deferrals in deals, timed to close after, rather than before the June 2016 vote. We expect that commercial real estate may be more heavily affected than residential overall, as businesses may delay their investment decisions and investors may put on hold contemplated transactions pending more clarity on the referendum result,’ the report says. ‘In our view, a vote in favour of Brexit would accentuate and prolong this period of paralysis since it would most likely take several years for the terms of the exit to be defined. Since the 2009 downturn, wealthy individuals and institutional investors have considered the UK real estate sector a very safe asset class. These assets attracted sustained investor demand primarily for their value preservation characteristics,’ the report explains further. ‘A vote in favour of a UK exit from the EU in June 2016 would likely threaten that perception of safety, at least for some time. A falling UK currency may also contribute to such a change in perception but would also make real estate in the UK less costly to international investors in foreign currency terms,’ it states. It makes the point that residential real estate would not be immune to a Brexit. ‘The… Continue reading
New home loans falling in Australia, latest data shows
New home loans in Australia saw a further decline in February from the high levels of late 2015, according to the latest report from the Housing Industry Association. Despite a growth in the total number of owner occupier loans, excluding refinancing, new home loans fell by 6.5% month on month and were 2.7 per cent lower than a year earlier. During February the number of loans for the construction of new dwellings eased back by 1.9% in seasonally adjusted terms, while the number of loans for the purchase of new dwellings fell by 15.4%. Compared with a year earlier, loans for dwelling construction were down by 2.8% and there was a 2.6% decline in the number of new dwelling purchase loans over the same period. However, HIA senior economist Shane Garrett said that it is important to remember that new home lending volumes are still high by historic standards. ‘The decline in new home loans during January and February is consistent with our view that new home building will moderate during 2016 from last year’s record highs even though the number of new home starts this year is still likely to be one of the highest on record,’ Garrett explained. ‘While the markets that have risen on the recent wave of construction are likely to continue to perform in the near term, there is a risk that markets which didn’t fully participate in the boom may find this more painful,’ he pointed out. ‘It is vital that state governments are prepared to step in and offer support to our industry as required over the next few years,’ he added. Compared with a year earlier, the number of loans to owner occupiers building and buying new homes in the three months to February 2016, increased most strongly in the Northern Territory with growth of 37.4%, followed by growth of 20.2% in New South Wales and 9.3% in Victoria, New home lending volumes also rose in South Australia by 4.7%, in Queensland by 3% and in the Australian Capital Territory by 2.5% but over the same period, lending volumes fell in Tasmania by 33.1% and in Western Australia by 20.4%. Continue reading
Nonstandard UK home borrowers now more likely to get a loan
More mortgage borrowers are seeing their applications for mortgage loans given the green light as new products emerge to support ‘non-standard’ circumstances, according to new research. Some 26% of brokers reported having no problems sourcing a mortgage for any type of borrower in the second half of 2015, the highest proportion in the post Mortgage Market Review (MMR) era, and a clear sign of improving lending conditions. According to the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA) report it represents a significant jump from the proportion of brokers experiencing no problems both in the first half of 2015 when it was 15% and the second half of 2014 when it was 16%. However, some areas beyond the ‘mainstream’ mortgage market have been less well-served since 2008/2009, with new regulations introduced to govern lending criteria and fewer products on offer tailored to meet the needs of smaller and less mainstream consumer segments. This includes products to support borrowers seeking lending into retirement, products designed for borrowers with past adverse credit records, and those tailored for self-employed borrowers or those with irregular incomes. However, the IMLA’s research shows fewer brokers are now experiencing problems with sourcing a mortgage for clients in all of these areas, with the most significant improvement seen in sourcing loans for interest only borrowers. The proportion of brokers having difficulties helping this type of client has fallen 15 percentage points year on year to 39%. Similarly, the proportion of brokers unable to source a mortgage for ‘lending into retirement’ borrowers has dropped seven percentage points to 43%. The picture has also improved for self-employed borrowers, with just 40% of brokers reporting problems over the last six months, down six percentage points from a year ago. The most common circumstances where brokers were unable to source mortgages in the second half of 2015 continue to be adverse credit at 46%, lending into retirement at 43%, self-employed at 40% and interest only borrowers at 39% although in each case, the picture has improved. The report points out that these product types are becoming increasingly important, in context of the changing UK demographic. More first time buyers are taking out mortgages with longer terms to spread out their repayments, with 60% now opting for terms that last more than 25 years, meaning more borrowers could be left paying off their debt in retirement. Meanwhile the trend towards more working flexibility alongside sluggish wage growth has boosted self-employment levels in the UK, and 15% of the workforce are now self-employed. Looking ahead, both lenders and brokers identify first time buyers as the market area with the best overall growth prospects for 2016, ahead of other segments. However, when asked about the prospects for product availability, IMLA’s research suggests further improvements could be on their way for other borrower types. More than half of lenders forecast an improvement in mortgage availability for retirement borrowers, near prime borrowers, those who are self-employed or with irregular incomes, and interest… Continue reading
