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Property growth sluggish in the US, latest index data suggests
National property growth in the United States increased by a moderate 0.6% quarter on quarter but values are barely rising with variations according to location. The home data index from Clear Capital shows that in the Northeast and Midwest regional quarterly growth rates were sluggish at only 0.2% while the South saw a 0.7% rise. These rates come with little to no change from the previously reported quarterly growth rates, all within 0.1% of the figures from the previous month. The firm believes that the current picture is being led by the West where sales have increased 0.3% from 0.9% to 1.2% in a month and it says that this momentum shift is setting the pattern for another strong summer growth season as the region begins to dominate regional performance once again. The continued dominance of the West is easy to see on the firm’s list of Highest Performing Major Metro Markets, where nine of the current top 15 are in the West. Seattle continues to lead the nation with 2% growth over the last quarter, an increase of 0.2% since the previous index, while quarterly growth in Sacramento increased 0.3% to 1.5% quarter on quarter and the rest of the Western top markets all reported at least 1.2% growth over the last quarter. However, the condition of each individual market in the region is varied. Portland, San Jose, and Denver have all surpassed their previous peak market values from before the crash, with Seattle fast approaching its own benchmark. However, homes in Las Vegas are fetching just over half of peak market values from 10 years ago. The index report also points out that the current distressed property saturation rates in cities like Sacramento and San Diego have improved by 50% or more, illustrating a drastic improvement in the overall health of the market, and yet both markets have quite a way to go to recovering all market value lost during the crash. ‘Real estate market headlines have repeatedly documented the strong, potentially bubble like recovery of the West over the past couple years, and this continued trend of performance doesn’t appear to be going away just yet,’ said Alex Villacorta, vice president for research and analytics at Clear Capital. ‘However, it’s important to remember just how varied the standing of each of these Western metro’s recoveries remains. While the West as a whole has seen incredible performance since the lows of 2011, comparisons between individual markets like Denver and Las Vegas can be a sobering reminder of the devastating effects of the crash and that some markets still have a long way to go in terms of regaining lost value,’ he explained. ‘Conversely, those markets that are reaching new market highs are worth keeping a close eye on since the speed at which those recoveries have occurred is clearly unsustainable in the long term,’ he added. Continue reading
US homes values growing faster than expected, latest data shows
Home values in the United States are appreciating faster than experts expected, rising almost 5% over the past year, according to the latest index report. The April real estate market report from Zillow also shows that there are 3.4% fewer homes for sale than there were 12 months ago and home values are currently appreciating at 4.9%, almost 3% faster than Zillow predicted a year ago. The real estate report suggest that a smaller number of homes on the market will make it harder for first time buyers. The number of entry level homes for sale is down almost 8% over the past 12 months. Stiff competition and high demand, in addition to low inventory, stronger wage growth and low mortgage rates, are driving up home prices across the country, especially for entry level homes, which is forcing many aspiring home owners into bidding wars. Markets with the tightest inventory have some of the fastest rising home values. Over the past two years Portland has seen an almost 405 decrease in the number of homes for sale, with home values up 15% over the past 12 months. Similar patterns hold true in hot markets like Dallas, Seattle, and Denver, where inventory is down more than 20% and home value growth is in the double digits. In addition to low inventory, home values are rising in response to a strong job market, higher than expected wage growth and persistently low mortgage rates, the report also points out. Those looking to purchase a home will find more homes to choose from in the condo and luxury markets. Inventory is improving in these two markets due to high end construction, with the number of homes for sale close to hitting positive growth. Buyers searching for a single family home, or in the bottom or middle of the market, will have less to choose from. ‘New construction has been sluggish over the past year. We're building about half as many homes as we should be in a normal market. There still aren't enough homes on the market to keep up with the high demand from every type of home buyer,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. ‘In many markets, those looking to buy a home in the bottom or middle of the market will need to be prepared for bidding wars and homes selling for over the asking price. This summer's selling season's borders will most likely be blurred again as many buyers are left without homes and will need to keep searching,’ she explained. Homes in the top third of the housing market have more frequent price cuts than homes in the bottom and middle of the market and some 16% of top tier homes had a price cut over the past year compared to 11% of bottom tier homes and 13% of middle tier properties. Almost 125 of condos had a price cut over the past year, driven by more availability in the luxury condo… Continue reading
Home prices in Canada see biggest year on year gain since 2010
National home sales in Canada increased by 3.1% from March to April and prices were up 13.1% year on year, the biggest gain since May 2010, the latest index shows. The data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) also shows that actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 10.3% compared to April 2015 while the number of newly listed homes was little changed with a decline of 0.2% from March to April. Sales were up in April compared to the previous month in about 70% of all local markets, led by the National Capital Region and Edmonton. Following small declines the previous month, activity held steady in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and edged lower in Greater Vancouver. ‘National home sales set new monthly records over the past two months, even as activity in Greater Vancouver and the GTA appears to have topped out,’ said CREA president Cliff Iverson. ‘With almost three quarters of all local markets posting sales gains in April, there are plenty of other places where sales are climbing as we head into the busiest time of the year for home buyers,’ he added. CREA chief economist Gregory Klump pointed out that supply shortages and tight housing market conditions have become self-reinforcing in the GTA and the Greater Vancouver Area appears to be heading in that direction too. ‘While significant home price gains may entice some homeowners in these markets to list their home for sale, the issue for many is that the decision to move means they would also be looking to buy while competition for scarce listings is fierce,’ he explained. ‘As a result, many home owners are deciding to stay put and continue accumulating capital gains. That’s keeping listings off the markets at a time when they are already in short supply,’ he added. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity rose 10.3% year on year ago to shatter all previous records for the month of April. It also marked the second highest level for transactions for any single month and stood 16.5% above the 10 year average for the month of April. Activity was up from year-ago levels in about 70% of all local markets, led by a number of markets in British Columbia as well as the GTA and the number of markets where new supply rose and where it fell was fairly evenly split. New listings were up most in Edmonton and on Vancouver Island but fell in the GTA, London and St. Thomas as well as Newfoundland and Labrador. The national sales to new listings ratio rose to 64.5% in April 2016, the ratio’s tightest reading since October 2009. A sales to new listings ratio between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively. The ratio was above 60% in about half of all local housing markets in April, virtually all of which are located in British Columbia, the… Continue reading
