Tag Archives: housing
UK house prices set to slow in 2016 and fall slightly in 2017 then recover in 2018
House price growth in the UK is forecast to slow to 2.5% by the end of 2016 due to economic risks and uncertainty as Brexit unsettles the economy, according to new research. With growth slowing in 2016 next year prices could fall by 1% but the market will recover in 2018 and see growth of 2%, says the analysis from Countrywide. It predicts that while growth will slow across all regions, London is likely to see price growth slow to 3.5% in 2016 before a fall of 1.25% in 2017 and a recovery to 2% in 2018. The prime central London market is expected to be the hardest hit with prices forecast to fall by 6% in 2016, rising to 0% in 2017 and 4% in 2018 while the South and East of England is also expected to slow in 2016 followed by small price falls in 2017 before returning to positive price growth in 2018. Prices in the South East are expected to ease to 3.5% in 2016 from 9.6% in 2015 and fall by 1% in 2017 and a similar outlook is forecast for house prices in the East and South West as prices adjust to weaker economic conditions and previous strong growth. Weaker economic conditions are also expected to hit prices in the North, the Midlands and Wales. The North East is expected to see price growth fall to 0.5% in 2016 and a decline of 0.25% in 2017. Price growth in the North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, Wales and the Midlands is also expected to slow in 2016. Next year is likely to see small falls too as uncertainty about life outside the European Union impacts investment and labour markets despite the support of a weaker currency. The report points out that the vote to leave the EU has unsettled the UK economy as uncertainty surrounding the arrangements for decoupling from the EU and the effect this will have on trade and future economic growth. The firm expects a weaker economy and for this to affect house prices and transactions through consumer confidence, household incomes and the labour market. This is not the only factor affecting the path of house prices. It also points out that higher stamp duty continues to take its toll on the top end markets and after several years of double digit price growth, expectations of future capital gain have weakened in many areas leading to reduced demand. However the continuing lack of supply of property and very low borrowing rates will remain a supportive factor for house prices. The predicted price falls in 2017 will mean prices returning to levels similar to the first quarter of 2016. And the report explains that there are higher than usual risks to these forecasts given the extraordinary nature of the challenges ahead. These are mainly to the downside, although the UK housing market always has the capacity to surprise to the upside and… Continue reading
Housing associations organisation criticises lack of affordable homes in UK
More British landlords now rent to people on housing benefit with amounts increasing from £4.6 billion in 2006 to £9.3 billion last year, new research shows. According to the study from the National Housing Federation the reason are twofold. Firstly a 42% rise in the overall number of private renters receiving housing benefit since 2008 and secondly the fact that claims in the private rented sector (PRS) are much higher than in the non-profit housing association sector. The research says that it costs £21 a week more to house a family in a PRS home than in a social home at £110 overall in comparison to £89 and points out that over a year this is an additional £1,000 per family being spent at £5,705 in the PRS compared to £4,638 in the social rented sector. In London, the contrast is even starker with PRS payments at £64 per week more than to those in social homes, adding up to £3,300 more each year, according to the NHF which represents independent non-profit housing associations. It says that the lack of affordable housing available means that a wider group of people need housing benefit. Nearly half, 47%, of all families claim housing benefit in the PRS sector are in work, almost double the proportion it was six years ago at 26%. Housing benefit recipients renting privately now earned an average £4,000 more than on six years ago. The NHF believes that the increase in taxpayer’s money being spent on housing benefit would have been better allocated to building more affordable homes. ‘It is madness to spend £9 billion of taxpayers’ money lining the pockets of private landlords, rather than investing in affordable homes,’ said David Orr, NHF chief executive. ‘Housing associations want to build the homes nation needs. By loosening restrictions on existing funding, the Government can free up housing associations to build more affordable housing at better value to the taxpayer and directly address the housing crisis,’ he added. But the National Landlords Association (NLA) said it should not criticise PRS landlords and pointed out that the number letting homes to housing benefit recipients is now falling. ‘Housing benefit is not a subsidy to landlords; it’s a support for tenants to ensure they can pay for their housing. However, the proportion of landlords who let to tenants in receipt of housing benefit has halved over the last five years as benefit levels have not kept up with rents,’ said , Richard Lambert, NLA chief executive officer. ‘The private rented sector has grown as the market responds to the increasing demand for homes, particularly from a growing proportion of tenants whom the social sector and housing associations simply are not able to support in the current circumstances,’ he explained. ‘The private rented sector plays a significant role in providing much needed homes for tenants. What we should all be talking about is the failure of successive governments to adequately allocate its housing budget and to incentivise… Continue reading
Number of UK home buyers falls by a third year on year, agents data shows
The number of house buyers in the UK has fallen by a third year on year with demand now at its lowest since November 2013, according to estate agents. In July the number of house hunters registered with members of the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) dropped to an average of 298, down 330 from the previous month. It means that demand is some 35% lower than July last year when 362 were registered per branch. The fall off comes at a time when the supply of housing increased marginally from 37 per branch to 38 in July. The NAEA monthly report also shows that last month, eight out of the 10 properties sold per member branch were for less than the original asking price, an increase of 8% from June. The number of sales made to first time buyers decreased in July from 30% of total sales made in June to 25% and in July, the number of sales agreed per member branch remained at eight. Some 31% of estate agents reported that there has been no changes in the housing market since Brexit and everything is business as usual while 31% of agents stated that the interest from foreign investors has remained the same. ‘We expected to see uncertainty in the immediate period following Brexit and during the summer months the market always quietens down, so we are optimistic that the housing market will spring back into full swing in the coming months,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. Continue reading
