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EU referendum causing uncertainty in UK property market with prices set to fall

Increasing uncertainty is weighing on the UK residential property market which could result in prices falling, according to the latest monthly housing report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The report paves out a scenario where prices could experience a short term drop due to uncertainty surrounding the referendum later this month on the future of the UK in the European Union. It would be the first such fall since 2012. The most recent polls are putting the Leave campaign marginally ahead of the Remain campaign and in many areas of business and economic life in the UK this is causing a wait and see attitude. This is already affecting the property market according to the RICS report which says that prices across the UK saw only modest growth in May while prices in central London fell. On top of this demand from buyers is falling at the fastest rate in eight years. RICS predicts that house prices nationally are set to dip over the coming months, while rents increase while in central London some 35% more property professionals are reporting that prices had fallen rather than risen over the past month. While prices are continuing to climb modestly across the rest of the UK, this trend looks set to fade, with 10% more respondents predicting that prices would fall rather than rise over the coming three months. This is the first time that a fall in prices has been predicted since 2012. London and East Anglia are expected to be worst hit with 43% and 33% of respondents saying that prices will fall over the next quarter. ‘Sadly, for the many young people looking to enter the property market, it is unlikely that we are seeing the emergence of a more affordable market. Instead, it appears to me that what we are looking at is a short term drop caused by the uncertainty resulting from the forthcoming EU referendum coupled by a slowdown following the rush to get into the market ahead of the tax change on the purchase of investment properties,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. ‘Certainly, that’s the story we are hearing from our members. There is not at this point a sense that a fundamental shift is taking place in the market,’ he added. Buyer demand fell across the UK for the second consecutive month and at the fastest pace since 2008, with 33% more property professionals saying that demand decreased last month. The survey revealed that in the longer term, while house prices are thought likely to regain momentum, rents look set to outpace them, with UK rents predicted to increase by 4.7% year on year for the next five years, compared to house price increases of 4.1%. The number of agreed sales also fell for the second consecutive month with a net balance of 22% of respondents reporting a fall rather than a rise in activity. However, Thomas van Straubenzee of prime London property agents VanHan, believes that… Continue reading

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Marbella proving popular with overseas buyers

More than 80% of properties bought in Marbella in Spain are bought by foreigners, much higher than the country’s average, new research shows. Overall data from Spanish registrars show that 13.8% of properties are sold to overseas buyers as of the end of 2015 and of those more than 60% were from within the European Union. But the Marbella Property Market Report 2016 from Panorama Properties Marbella, a well-established estate agency, shows the area is very popular as it is regarded as a safe and high quality destination for investment. According to Christopher Clover, the firm’s managing director, there has also been a change in where the foreign investors come from and he is predicting an influx of Iranian buyers thanks to the newly opened Iranian market. ‘Marbella has been a popular tourist destination with Iranians for decades and the property market looks set to benefit strongly from that affection over the coming years,’ he explained. At the same time there are fewer British buyers right now and this may be due to the forthcoming referendum on the future of the UK in the EU. ‘British buyers in the lower price ranges, who for years have accounted for the largest market share of foreign buyers in Spain, are sometimes pausing when it comes to purchasing their dream home in Marbella. The distraction of Britain's potential exit from the EU has caused a few to hold fire on purchasing property in other EU countries,’ said Clover. Assuming the UK remains within the EU, a surge of property purchases by British buyers in and around Marbella can reasonably be expected during the late summer months and from a medium to long term viewpoint, Clover believes that the trend of British purchasers for property in the Marbella area will not be greatly affected whether Britain stays in the EU or exits. While British buyers stop and think, Spanish buyers are using the pause to gradually return to the Marbella property market, the report also suggests. The number of Spanish residents visiting Marbella plummeted from well over 350,000 in 2006 to just over 100,000 in 2013, but numbers have since been rising, returning almost to 250,000 visitors in 2015. ‘As Spanish visitor numbers pick up and the national economy continues to improve, so too will Spanish interest in the Marbella property market. Those buying in Marbella right now are after a wide range of property types, which is precisely what the area provides,’ Clover explained. Many buyers are looking for new build properties in Marbella, but developer stopped when the economic downturn hit eight years ago. ‘However, investment groups have been quietly buying up the best building sites over the past two years, so the coming five to 10 years should see an influx of prime new build properties onto the market,’ said Clover. The report also points out that the number of sales in Marbella reached 4,390 in 2015, less than1% short of the number… Continue reading

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Average house prices in British seaside towns up over 30% in 10 years

House prices have increased by 32% across British seaside towns over the past decade, amounting to £440 per month, according to the latest research. The annual Halifax Seaside Town Review revealed average house prices have grown from £166,565 in 2006 to £219,386 in 2016, equivalent to an average increase of £440 per month. Scottish seaside towns dominate the list of areas with the greatest price growth, with seven of the top 10 located in Aberdeenshire, which for much of the period has been well served by growth in the oil and gas sector. Fraserburgh has seen the greatest house price growth with a rise of 139%, from £63,540 in 2006 to £151,719 in 2016, equivalent to a monthly increase of £735. In Macduff, average property value doubled from £66,226 to £133,567 or 102%, followed by Peterhead up 95%, Cove Bay up 94% and Newtonhill up 91%. Brighton recorded the greatest increase in value outside of Scotland with prices up 59% from £214,863 to £341,235 over the decade. Other seaside towns in England with the best price performance include Whitstable in Kent up 53%, Shoreham on Sea in West Sussex also up 53%, Leigh on Sea in Essex up 52% and Truro in Cornwall up 50%. Despite the growth of property values in Scottish seaside towns over the past 10 years, nine of the 10 most expensive seaside towns in Britain are on the South coast with eight in the South West. The most expensive seaside town is Sandbanks in Poole, where the average house price is £664,655. Sandbanks knocked Salcombe off the top spot, a position which Salcombe, in the South Devon Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, has had since 2010. Other most expensive seaside towns located in the South West include Padstow with an average price of £443,396, Dartmouth at £401,361 and Fowey at £379,003. Aldeburgh in Suffolk at £439,379 and Lymington in Hampshire at £426,112 are the most expensive seaside towns outside the South West. ‘Seaside towns are highly popular places to live, offering sought after scenery, weather and lifestyle which no doubt come at a price. They also attract those looking for holiday properties, which add upward pressure on house prices, which our research shows have increased by an average of £440 per month since 2006,’ said Martin Ellis, housing economist at the Halifax. Despite the price performance nine of the least expensive seaside towns are in Scotland. There is a marked difference in price at top and bottom end of the scale, with the least expensive town Port Bannatyne on the Isle of Bute at £77,132. Seven of the least expensive are in western Scotland, including Girvan at £91,912, Campbeltown at £91,938 and Saltcoats at £93,479. Newbiggin by the Sea in Northumberland at £81,259 is the least expensive seaside town in England. The research found 11 seaside towns in total with an average price below £100,000. ‘Over the 10 year period, coastal towns north of the border… Continue reading

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