Tag Archives: house
UK farmland market sees muted activity post Brexit
Just over 123,000 acres were publicly marketed across Great Britain in the first seven months of 2016, which is comparable with the acreage marketed during the same period of last year. But the data from the latest UK farmland update report from real estate firm Savills suggests that uncertainty surrounding Brexit has created a lull in market activity. The data also shows that during the first half of 2016, the average value of farmland across Great Britain fell by just under 2%. The average downward trend continues to be led by arable values, which are more exposed to pressure from low commodity prices. In England activity was down by 6% but in Scotland, the opposite, a degree of referendum fatigue may have helped increase activity which was up by 8% while in Wales activity increased by 35% but the report points out that was coming from a much smaller base where a few farms can distort the figures either way. It also points out that the farmland market normally quietens in the summer so it is difficult to assess the ‘actual’ Brexit effect. ‘Most of the questions surrounding Brexit and its impact on the UK remain unanswered and will do for some time,’ said Ian Bailey, head of agricultural research. ‘But our analysis to date is beginning to suggest that the impact of changes to trade agreements could be far more significant than changes to the existing agricultural subsidy. The key issues determining prices achieved for farmland remain low commodity prices and location based demand,’ he explained. He also pointed out that in some areas there is evidence of a good number of larger farms coming to the market, especially across the southern half of England but in many areas there is an expectation that the second half of the year will be quieter than during the first six months. The Savills report predicts subdued activity overall with 2016 supply down around 8% in compared with 2015. It expects that the muted activity in England will continue to the end of the year and in Scotland there will be reduced supply in the second half of the year after an active first six months while supply is likely to be boosted in Wales. An analysis of farm transactions, where Savills acted for the buyer or seller, for the first half of the year indicates that there has not been any material change in the profile of buyers and sellers during the first half of this year compared with last year and the last analysis in February. ‘We expect this to continue into the second half of the year although, the opportunities offered by weak sterling, may increase the activity of overseas buyers,’ said Bailey. ‘Agriculture tends to do well in time of economic uncertainty. In addition, the weak pound creates opportunities for overseas buyers. Both of these factors, along with the anticipated reduced supply, may help support farmland values,’ he added. Continue reading
Most UK landlords are part time with just one property
Most landlords in the UK still consider renting out a property to be a part time activity and the majority own just one property and manage their portfolio as private individuals, new research show. However, there is an apparent trend towards larger portfolios even although rents make up less than half of a landlord’s total income, according to the report from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). But the research, carried out with BDRC and the London School of Economics, does show there is evidence that rent is increasingly becoming a significant income stream for part time landlords. In 2016 some 87% of landlords sampled manage their portfolio as an individual or as a couple, roughly unchanged from the 89% reported in 2010. The proportion operating as a company or other group comprises 14%, roughly on par with the 11% reported in 2010. Likewise, the vast majority of respondents in 2010 and 2016, 92% and 95% respectively, do not consider letting to be their main business or occupation. While most landlords still own just one property, there is an apparent trend towards larger portfolios. Between 2010 and 2016, the proportion of respondents who manage only one property fell from 78% to 63%. At the same time, the share managing two to four properties rose from 17% to 30%. The report suggests that this could be due to the difference in the samples of the two surveys. However, the sharp contrast between the 2010 and 2016 data is likely to reflect to some degree an underlying increase in average portfolio size. Such a finding would be consistent with CML data on the number of loans for buy to let house purchases, which has increased by about 19% a year since 2010. Generally, rental receipts make up less than half of a landlord’s total income. However, evidence suggests that rent is increasingly becoming a significant income stream. For about 90% of landlords, rental income is less than half of their total income, virtually unchanged since the 2010 survey. However, the share receiving no rent, typically due to a property being unoccupied, has dropped substantially from 21% to 5% over the past six years. At the same time, the share receiving up to one quarter of their income from rent has risen by about seven percentage points, and the share claiming between one quarter to one half of the income from rent has grown by 10 percentage points. The report suggests that this apparent shift may be attributable to differences in sample sizes. However, if it reflects an underlying trend, this would be consistent with the apparent increase in portfolio sizes, as it is easy to see how owning a larger portfolio would allow a landlord to draw a bigger chunk of their income from rent. Overall the report says that while it looks like the typical landlord is still an individual running a rental business on the side, there appears to have been a gradual expansion of… Continue reading
Asking prices down across many parts of the UK, latest index data shows
Asking prices in London continue to fall, down 1.2% month on month, with values also down across other parts of the UK, the latest index shows. Prices fell in four English regions and Scotland, taking the overall mix-adjusted average asking price drop to 0.1% since last month and the number of properties reduced in price hit a 45 month high, according to the latest index from Home.co.uk. This means that the average annualised rate of home price appreciation for England and Wales slipped further to 5.3% and the total stock of property on the market edged up again and is just 0.5% less than in August last year. Indeed, supply of property increased sharply in key regions with supply up 27% in London, up 19% in the East of England and also up 19% in the South East. The report says that these increases will only serve to worsen the market conditions, especially in Greater London. It suggest that low confidence among sellers has triggered a spate of price cutting, the magnitude of which we have not seen since October 2012. This meant that asking prices slipped in the South East by a further 0.2% during the last month. Scottish asking prices also slipped for a second consecutive month, by 0.5%. A breakdown of the figures show that asking prices increased the most in the North East with a rise of 1%, followed by the West Midlands up 0.8%, the East of England up 0.6%, the South West up 0.5%, Wales up 0.3% and the North West up 0.1%. There is a significant risk that falling prices and uncertainly over Brexit in London and the South East will trigger a stampede to market, causing a major market slump, the report also says. ‘Overall, the current mix-adjusted average asking price for England and Wales is now 5.3% higher than it was in August 2015, and we anticipate that this figure will trend towards 0% over the coming months,’ said Doug Shephard, director at Home.co.uk. ‘Last month was simply too early to fully appreciate the Brexit fallout for UK property. This month we are seeing significant market changes but not all to the downside. Whilst the London market is looking rather panicky with falls being accentuated by Brexit worries, there are several strongly performing regions that remain unaffected so far,’ he explained. ‘While it is clear that the referendum result certainly unnerved many investors, it is also clear that they are not all running for the exit at once. We will be keeping a particularly close eye on the London market over the next month, watching whether or not the surge in new listings becomes a stampede. Such a panic would inevitably lead to a home price crash in the region and stress mortgage lenders to the limit or beyond,’ he pointed out. He believes that the decision by the Bank of England to take interest rates even lower to a record low of… Continue reading
