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Demand for rural land in the UK fell sharply in first half of 2016
Demand in the UK’s rural land market fell sharply in the first half of 2016 while supply continued to increase, albeit very modestly, the latest industry survey shows. This rise in supply relative to demand pushed 12 month price expectations deeper into negative territory with a net balance of 49% of contributors now expecting prices to fall, across all farm types, over the coming year. The data from the RICS/RAE rural land market survey also shows that yields on investment land drifted slightly down, to 1.6% and anecdotal evidence from respondents suggests that increased uncertainty due to the Brexit vote and resulting confusion over the future of CAP payments has weighed on the market. This has compounded the already subdued demand due to low commodity prices, the report points out and while commercial farmland continues to experience the worst of the current downturn with demand falling most substantially, blocks with a residential component also saw a sharp contraction in buyer interest. Indeed, some 19% more contributors reported a fall rather than a rise. Likewise, while expectations for prices at the 12 month horizon are slightly worse for commercial farmland, the outlook for mixed residential farmland turned markedly more negative in the first six months of the year with a net balance of 42% of surveyors expecting prices to fall rather than rise over the next year. The survey’s transaction based measure of farmland prices, which includes a residential component where its value is estimated to be less than 50% of total, edged down in the latest period and now stands at £10,750 per acre. Meanwhile, the survey’s opinion based measure, a hypothetical estimate by surveyors of the price of bare land, fell by 4% between the first half of 2016 and the second half of last year. Since 2015, the difference between the two measures has widened somewhat and RICS says that this may reflect several influences but the fact that the transaction based measure contains some residential element is probably a significant factor at the moment, given that residential prices in most parts have continued to rise steadily over the past year. According to surveyors, average arable land rents fell by 8.8% in the first half of the year and by 3.1% over the year as a whole. Average pasture land rents fell by 6.7% and by 7.3% respectively. The buyer profile has remained broadly unchanged over recent years with individual farmers still representing around 60% of purchases. Meanwhile lifestyle buyers compose around a quarter of the demand. Continue reading
Survey reveals over a quarter of UK tenants felt rushed into an agreement
Over a quarter of tenants in the UK feel that they were rushed into entering their tenancy agreement, particularly in London, a new survey has found. Overall 27% felt rushed and more than half regretted renting their current property, according to the research commissioned by Ocean Finance. Such is the competition in the rentals market that 1.5 million tenants, some 8% of renters, signed their tenancy agreement on the day they viewed the property. One in 10 said the turnaround between viewing and entering the tenancy was two to three days, and a similar number said they signed the agreement between four and seven days after the viewing. The survey found that 18 to 24 year olds are the most likely to act hastily when renting with 46% saying that they felt rushed into signing. By contrast, just 17% of those aged over 55 felt pressured to sign quickly to secure the property. Tenants in London felt under the most pressure to sign quickly to secure a house or flat with 40% rushing into it but renters in Northern Ireland also felt under the same amount of pressure. By contrast, just 12% of tenants in Wales felt the pressure to sign. Riddled with regret Of those tenants that say they felt under pressure to sign their agreement, half say that they wish they hadn’t done so with 10% saying the property is too cold, 9% that it was too small and 9% also saying it needed work done on it. Some 8% regretted their decision because they did not like the area, 6% said there was not enough garden, 4% felt it lacked character and 4% thought it was too old fashioned while 2% found it was too far away from amenities. ‘Our figures demonstrate just how hard it is to rent a property across much of the UK. The best properties are often snapped up within hours or even minutes. As a result, would be tenants feel under pressure to sign quickly to secure the property,’ said Ian Williams, Ocean’s spokesperson. ‘Sadly, half of those go on to regret their haste, finding themselves in a home that they don’t like or which doesn’t suit them,’ he added. Continue reading
Researcher blames government not rich foreign buyers for UK housing crisis
Decades of planning policies that constrain the supply of houses and land and turn them into something like gold or artworks is to blame for the current housing crisis in the UK rather than foreign buyers, according to a new analysis. The problem is not foreign speculators buying luxury flats as an investment in London which then lie empty but that for more than 30 years not enough homes have been built, says Paul Cheshire, Professor Emeritus of economic geography at the London School of Economics. He also believes that homes that have been built have too often been in the wrong place or of the wrong type to meet demand. For example, twice as many houses were built in Doncaster and Barnsley in the five years to 2013 than in Oxford and Cambridge. It means that in northern cities more homes have been built that in the southern part of the country where the demand and population is greater. Pace has also not kept up to demand. According to his analysis from 1969 to 1989 over 4.3 million houses were built in England but from 1994 to 2012 there were fewer than 2.7 million. In 2009, the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit, which was set up as an independent technical source of advice in the wake of the Barker Reviews of housing supply and planning, estimated that to stabilise affordability, it would be necessary to build between 237,800 and 290,500 houses a year. On a conservative estimate, that implies building 260,000 houses a year, which over 19 years would mean a total of over 4.9 million. Taking the difference between actual building between 1969 and 1989 and the advice unit’s estimate of necessary annual building, this implies that between 1994 and 2012, building fell short of what was needed by between 1.6 and 2.3 million houses. ‘This is what explains the crisis of housing affordability. We have a longstanding and endemic crisis of housing supply and it is caused primarily by policies that intentionally constrain the supply of housing land. It is not surprising to find that house prices increased by a factor of 3.36 from the start of 1998 to late 2013 in Britain as a whole and by a factor of 4.24 over the same period in London,’ said Cheshire. He explained that it is a long standing problem as discounting inflation, house prices have gone up fivefold since 1955 but the price of the land needed to put houses on has increased in real terms by 15 fold over the same period. He also explained that in the UK houses are converted from places in which to live into the most important financial asset people have and the little land you can build them on becomes not just an input into house construction but a financial asset in its own right. ‘In other words, what policy is doing is turning houses and housing land into something like… Continue reading
