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Farmland Price Growth Flattens Across Mid-South And Southeast In Second Quarter; Outlook Is Stable

The pace of farmland price appreciation across the Mid-South and Southeast U.S. continued to flatten in the second quarter, according to the latest Farmland Market Survey released today by Farmland Investor Letter. Madison, WI, September 06, 2013 –( PR.com )– The pace of farmland price appreciation across the Mid-South and Southeast U.S. continued to flatten in the second quarter, according to the latest Farmland Market Survey released today by Farmland Investor Letter. Non-irrigated cropland values rose at an estimated 6.3% year-over-year pace, down from 7% in the first quarter. Irrigated tracts increased at an 8.2% annual pace, unchanged from the previous quarter. Pasture values were up 2.4% from a year ago, also virtually even from the 2.5% 12-month rate through the first quarter. The survey, conducted from June 15, 2013 through August 14, 2013 was based on 102 responses from appraisers, property managers, lenders, real estate brokers and landowners located in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee. Farmers and investors expect cropland values to remain stable through the third quarter, despite declining crop commodity prices. Low interest rates continue to support land values. However, with the Federal Reserve expected to begin tapering 10-year Treasury note purchases in coming months, mortgage rates are already starting to notch up. A sustained increase in interest rates would put pressure on further land price appreciation. In addition, strong returns from the stock market—the S&P 500 Index has generated an 18.3% total return year to date—continue to compete for the attention of investors.    Farmland Values Survey participants estimated that non-irrigated cropland across the region was worth an average $3,141 per acre in the second quarter of 2013. Irrigated cropland values averaged $4,477 per acre. Pasture values averaged $2,239 per acre. On an individual state basis, non-irrigated cropland values ranged from a high of $4,925 per acre in Missouri to a low of $2,479 per acre in Georgia. Irrigated cropland values ranged from a high of $6,833 per acre in Missouri to $3,556 per acre in Alabama. Pasture values ranged from a high of $2,900 per acre in Florida to $1,771 per acre in Arkansas. Cash Rents Cash rent increases for cropland and pasture continue to lag land price inflation across the region. Rents on non-irrigated cropland averaged $114 per acre, ranging from an average $69 per acre in Georgia to $213 per acre in Missouri. Irrigated cash rents averaged $199 per acre across the region, and ranged from an average $135 per acre in Alabama to $328 per acre in Florida. Pasture rents averaged $36 per acre, ranging from $24 per acre in Florida to $78 per acre in Tennessee. Rent income yields, which are calculated by dividing gross cash rent by land value, offers insights into the relative pricing of land tracts regionally. Across the Mid-South/Southeast, non-irrigated tracts are estimated to be generating a 3.6% rent income yield; irrigated tracts 4.4% and pasture 1.6%.    Market Outlook With farm crop prices continuing to contract, survey panelists remain cautious in their outlook for both cropland and pasture values, forecasting that prices would remain stable though the third quarter. Respondents are most optimistic for irrigated cropland tracts, where 35% expect prices to increase, while 64% look for no change. Buyer demand for irrigated tracts appears strongest in Missouri and Louisiana where 67% and 60%, respectively, of respondents look for irrigated land values to continue rising. Interest in non-irrigated tracts appears strongest in Missouri, where 80% of respondents forecast higher prices.    Contact Information Mercator Research LLC Michael Fritz 312-725-0559 Contact www.farmlandinvestorcenter.com Continue reading

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Investment Insider: Where Next For Asian Growth?

Look to middle-class consumer spending for the next opportunities DAVID KUO SATURDAY 07 SEPTEMBER 2013 The flight of capital from Asian markets in recent months would appear to suggest the eastern growth story may have run its course. As soon as Ben Bernanke announced in May that the US Federal Reserve would start to consider winding back its money-easing activities, investors began withdrawing funds from Asian markets. That not only triggered sharp falls in some Asian currencies such as the Malaysian ringgit, the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee, but also sparked a drop in Asian stock markets too. It would seem, on the face of it at least, that the Asian growth story might have been built on the sands of cheap money created through quantitative easing in developed economies. So when the cost of money is likely to rise, it is perhaps understandable to assume that the decade-long Asian growth story might be drawing to a close too. There is some tacit evidence to suggest that the market might be correct in its assumption. For instance, Thailand has slipped into recession and red flags have been raised over growth in India. The world’s 10th-largest economy once boasted double-digit growth but that has slowed to just 4.5 per cent between April and June, less than most economists had predicted. However, it is important to bear in mind that Asia is a vast continent that comprises 49 separate countries. Just as it would be wrong to tar the UK and Greece with the same economic brush, it would be just as inaccurate to put embattled Thailand and, say, successful Philippines into the same economic basket. The Philippines’ second-quarter growth of 7.5 per cent was faster than expected. Additionally, China’s growth is expected to exceed 7.5 per cent and Indonesia, which is the world’s fourth-largest country by population, could grow around 6 per cent this year. Indonesia, of course, has some economic problems to resolve. It is importing more than it exports; inflation jumped to almost 8 per cent in August; its current account is in the red and its currency has fallen sharply. That said, there are many developed economies that would gladly trade places with Indonesia right now. Meanwhile, much has been made of China’s economic slowdown. But let us not forget that China is the second-largest economy in the world. Consequently, a 7.5 per cent annual growth rate is hardly pedestrian. In fact, recent data appears to suggest that China’s objective to rebalance its economy from export-led to one that will be driven by consumers is showing early signs of success. In the early days of Asia’s growth, investors found opportunities in the commodities sector as China and other Asian economies consumed minerals and metals to develop their infrastructure. That is likely to continue but probably at a slower pace. The next crop of opportunities is likely to come from growing demand by middle-class consumers. According to Ernst & Young, two-thirds of the world’s middle class will reside in Asia-Pacific by 2030. These are likely to want the same things consumers in developed economies have long enjoyed. So look at household names that have exposure to the East. These could include Swedish retailers such as Hennes & Mauritz, Spain’s Inditex, which owns Zara and Bershka, and the UK’s upmarket retailer Burberry, which now generates 40 per cent of revenues from Asia Pacific. David Kuo is director of fool.co.uk Continue reading

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Hazy Future For Indonesian Plantation Monopolies

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