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Property sales in UK set to slowdown when buy to let surge ends
The UK housing market is set to slow down over the next three months following a short term rush on buy to let properties, says the latest report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The monthly survey report from RICS also shows that house price inflation peaked last December ahead of an anticipated rush to beat buy to let tax rises which come into force on 01 April. Once the 3% surcharge on additional homes, which include buy to let and second homes, is in place, RICS predicts that there will be more modest growth in property sales. While 74% of survey respondents expected there to be a rush on buy to let purchases ahead of Stamp Duty increases only 17% (net balance) expected to see an increase in sales over the coming three months. In addition, while house price inflation expectations peaked following the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, with prices driven by speculation regarding an increase in investor demand, RICS says that this trend is set to soften from March as investor interest dampens. Only 21% of respondents expect prices to increase over the coming months. The survey showed that house prices continued to creep up throughout February. Across the UK, East Anglia continues to show the sharpest price increases, with 91% of respondents reporting that prices had risen over the past month. London and the North East by way of contrast saw very modest gains while the South West has seen the highest rise in sales across the UK for the last three months and 49% of respondents experienced a rise in sales rather than a fall and further increases are expected over the year ahead. New instructions to sell also increased more sharply in the South West than anywhere else in the UK as 34% of surveyors saw an increase in new listings rather than a decrease. New buyer enquiries in the South West rose for the twelfth month in succession with 49% more respondents seeing an increase in demand rather than a fall, the highest in the UK. However, uncertainty weighs on London’s housing market. Price expectations have turned negative in prime central parts of the capital and after sharp periods of inflation, London house prices look set to stabilize. Overall outer London boroughs remain firmly positive and Zone one properties are showing signs of a downturn. ‘Anecdotal evidence has suggested that a combination of exogenous factors is contributing to the overall picture in prime London, with tax changes, foreign market slowdowns and uncertainty over Brexit all being mooted as potential reasons behind the changes in demand,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. ‘This is not necessarily indicative of the long term market and the depreciation of the pound could encourage overseas investors back in to the market as could the outcome of the European referendum,’ he explained. He pointed out that the challenges facing the top end of London’s property market are clearly visible in the latest results. ‘However, it is… Continue reading
UK private rented sector sees fewer serious arrears and landlords finances healthy
Tenants in the UK private rented sector are now less likely to suffer from a serious build-up of arrears with just 1.6% of tenancies in this position, the latest research shows. The number who had moved out of series rent arrears improved by 1.5% in the final quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter, according to the latest Tenant Arrears Tracker by estate agency chains Your Move and Reeds Rains. This reverses some of a deteriorating trend throughout the earlier parts of 2015. There were 82,900 households behind on more than two months’ rent, down from 84,200 in the third quarter of 2015. However, the latest quarterly improvement still represents a worsening on an annual basis. The number of tenants in serious rent arrears remains 19.5% higher than in the final quarter of 2014. But as a proportion of the entire market, the latest total still represents just 1.6% of tenancies across the UK private rented sector. This compares to a peak proportion of 2.9% of tenants in the first quarter of 2008. The absolute number of tenants in serious arrears is also mild on a historical basis, considerably below the record 116,600 such cases seen in the third quarter of 2012. According to Adrian Gill, director of estate agents Your Move and Reeds Rains, an individual tenant is still extremely unlikely to fall into serious rent arrears. ‘In fact the proportion of renters getting seriously behind on payments has dropped considerably over the longer term. But absolute numbers are now going the right way too. With fewer people at risk from more serious consequences of struggling to pay the rent, this is great news,’ he said. The tracker also shows that eviction rates have dropped in response to healthier tenant finances. In the final quarter of 2015 there were a total of 26,676 court orders issued for the eviction of tenants, on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is down marginally by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter when seasonally adjusted eviction orders stood at 26,775. On an annual basis, downward progress for evictions is more considerable, with 5.3% fewer evictions than 28,167 a year before in the fourth quarter of 2014. The latest figures for evictions represent 32% of the stock of tenants in severe arrears in the fourth quarter, meaning only around one in three such cases translate into evictions each quarter. Landlord finances are the healthiest on record, it also shows. Cases of landlords falling behind on their own financial commitments are diminishing. In the final three months of 2015 there were 5,500 examples of buy to let mortgage arrears, down by 3.5% from 5,700 in the previous quarter and a resumption of downward progress after the figure previously remained the same between the second and third quarter of 2015. On an annual basis, progress for landlords’ finances has been… Continue reading
Property sales in Scotland up 4% in 2015, down from 11% the previous year
Residential sales in Scotland increased by 4% in 2015, well below the 11% recorded in the previous year, a new analysis report points out. Tougher mortgage lending conditions during the first half of 2015 impacted the recovery of Scotland’s housing market, according to the report from real estate services firm Savills. However, the market adjusted during the second half of 2015 due to a recovery in mortgage lending for house purchases across Scotland, which increased by 9% from 59,500 in 2014 to 64,800 in 2015. On a Local Authority level, East Renfrewshire witnessed the strongest annual growth in the number of transactions during 2015 at 13% which the report says was boosted by the good schools effect. Other star performers include Glasgow City, West Dunbartonshire and West Lothian, where annual transactional growth in 2015 was higher than Scotland as a whole. Considering 2015 as a whole, prime sales, transactions at £400,000 and above, outperformed the overall market, with an 8% annual increase and much of this activity took place prior to the introduction of LBTT which brought higher rates of taxation to the prime market. Furthermore, the number of transactions at £1 million and above reached its highest level since 2008. Prime markets in suburban and commuter areas across Scotland’s Central Belt performed strongly during 2015, with growth spreading out from core urban hotspots. ‘This upturn in demand is driving an improving development land market. Sentiment for development land in Scotland’s cities remains positive,’ said Faisal Choudhry, director of Savills Scottish Research. With strong annual growth in the Savills Residential Development Land Index, particularly for greenfield land around Edinburgh, Perth and Stirling. The overall Savills index for greenfield land in Scotland increased year on year by 9.6% during December 2015 compared with December 2014. Choudhry explained that the development market has been further supported by Government incentives, such as the Help to Buy Mortgage Guarantee and new build schemes, which made up 8% of all residential activity in Scotland between October 2013 and September 2015. The recently announced extension of Help to Buy (Scotland) scheme to 2019 is expected to further support Scotland’s new home sales. The overall Savills index for urban land in Scotland increased year on year by 20.4% during December 2015 compared with December 2014.The increase in values, particularly in Edinburgh and Glasgow, reflects a rise in demand from housebuilders and developers, due to an improved economy, stronger markets and increased viability, Choudhry pointed out. However, he also pointed out that the fall in sentiment within the Aberdeen development land market, due to the continued low oil price and uncertainty over the future of the industry, has impacted negatively on the overall Scottish development land index. Continue reading
