Tag Archives: financial
Analysis suggests Brexit will have a varied impact on London property markets
The decision by the UK to leave the European Union is set to have a hugely varied impact across London's property markets with some likely to be worse off than others. According to a new analysis from independent property buying agency Black Bric, the sub-£2 million price bracket will continue to attract investors due to its favourable yields, good liquidity, and domestic demand. But the firm’s managing director Camilla Dell predicts that the same can't be said for the prime property market in London and the new build outer prime markets. ‘We expect the section of the market dominated by domestic buyers and those working in the financial services sector, predominantly £2million to £5 million but also up to the £12million to £15 million range, to potentially face some pressure linked to Brexit concerns,’ said Dell. ‘We do not expect the wholesale flight of financial services firms away from London, but it is likely that they will lose their passporting rights, or their ability to sell financial services across the EU if the UK does leave, triggering the departure of some financial services capacity to Dublin or the continent,’ she explained. ‘However, even relatively low numbers of bankers leaving areas such as South Kensington or Notting Hill where Europeans, in particular, tend to be concentrated could have a significant effect on local markets over the next couple of years,’ she added. Black Brick also expects the new-build outer prime market to suffer most from continuing uncertainty, having already experienced a lull period before the referendum vote. ‘The stock market has already heavily bid down builders linked to this part of the market, which is suffering from significant oversupply and the disappearance of the foreign investors who had supported it in recent years,’ said Dell. ‘Areas such as Nine Elms in Vauxhall and Earls Court in West London are particularly vulnerable due to oversupply of expensive properties aimed at the overseas investor. However, there are a handful of stand out developments, such as Television Centre, that we believe are likely to continue to prove popular, and there will certainly be bargains to be had, particularly on the secondary market,’ she pointed out. On the other hand, Black Brick expects the super prime market to be the least negatively affected, with the collapse of the sterling meaning that dollar buyers are actually factoring in a 12.5% increase in their purchasing power since before the referendum. ‘For the global elite buying properties at £15 million to £20 million or above, purchases tend to be about lifestyle choices, rather than business decisions, or are to diversify extremely large portfolios. Indeed, we are still seeing transactions continue. Brexit did not feature in conversations with clients in this part of the market before the referendum, and it is unlikely to be much of a factor now it is underway,’ Dell added. Meanwhile, London’s new Deputy Mayor for Housing James Murray has said there will be meeting with major developers and the… Continue reading
UK remortgage figures up in May, but uncertainty could now creep in
Last month was the best May for remortgaging since 2008 but uncertainty and volatility are now expected following the decision by the UK to leave the European Union. Remortgaging reached £5 billion in May and the number of loans reached 32,334, higher than every May since 2008, when 77,100 loans were approved while the average amount of equity withdrawn reached £33,600, the highest amount this year and 43% up from the previous month. However, despite record low interest rates, borrowers felt the pinch due to falling incomes, according to the research from LMS. Remortgage lending was up by 26% compared to May of last year but was down by 16% from April, which was an exceptional month for remortgaging. The number of remortgage loans also decreased month on month by 7% from 34,800 in April to 32,334 in May but this is 31% more than May 2015 when 24,700 borrowers remortgaged. The average amount of equity withdrawn per customer from remortgaging activity has risen by 43% month on month, from £23,479 in April to £33,691 in May. The average amount of equity withdrawn is also up by a quarter in comparison to May last year when equity withdrawn stood at £26,863. The total amount of equity withdrawn rose by 33% over April from £817 million to £1089 million in May, some 64% more year on year from the £664 million recorded in May 2015. This is also the highest amount of total equity withdrawn since May 2008, back when remortgagors withdrew almost £1.21 billion. Despite being the lowest interest rate on record, however, average household income fell from £50,000 in March to £44,898 in April. A drop of 10%. The household income recorded in April 2016 is also 1% lower than in April 2015, when income was recorded at £45,365. ‘Remortgaging witnessed its best month of May since 2008, although the numbers are slightly down following a rush to remortgage in April. The favourable mortgage market, with eagerly competitive lenders, record low rates and rising house prices provided the ideal background remortgaging to continue its year on year surge,’ said Andy Knee, chief executive of LMS. ‘We will have to wait and see what the impact of June’s Brexit decision on the housing and mortgage markets will be in the short and medium term. There will be some uncertainty and volatility to cope with as everyone absorbs the news and this is likely to put a dampener on the housing market at least until the autumn,’ he pointed out. ‘However, interest rates remain at historically low levels and for those with a mortgage now is a great time to take out a fixed rate and stabilise their financial outgoings. Lenders may well come under pressure and their appetites for new business may shrink in the short term. If they do, the range of excellent rates available today might not be around… Continue reading
More than 50% of UK developers and builders plan to increase construction this year
More than half of developers and builders in the UK are planning to increase housing starts and completions over the next 12 months, according to a new survey report. Some 56% said they were planning to recruit more skilled workers in the next three years but many want to see more resources in local authority planning departments, the House Building Report 2016 from real estate consultants Knight Frank shows. Indeed, some 30% said making the planning process for public sector land more streamlined would help boost development numbers and 57% said they had not seen an increase in access to public sector land. On top of this 73% said the cost and availability of labour will have a negative impact on future housing supply at a time when it is at the centre of the national and local political debate. The expanding UK population, a structural historical undersupply of new housing and a slowdown in movement up and down the housing chain is now injecting a sense of urgency into the need to deliver more new build property, the report points out. . Over the last five years, the UK Government has made significant changes to the planning system, introduced schemes to boost development and put pressure on local authorities and public bodies to sell surplus land. While there has been an increase in housing delivery, but the supply of new build homes is still lagging demand on an annual basis, disregarding the historical shortfall. The country’s largest housebuilders, along with the Home Builders Federation (HBF), have recently pledged to help deliver one million homes by 2020, recognising that there needs to be ‘significant further action from the housebuilding industry’. The report assesses the next steps required to address the need for housing over the coming years. For example, the need to address the increasingly onerous levels of pre-commencement conditions applied in some planning permissions and the length of time taken to sign them off. The report points out that official house building data released each quarter from Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) shows that some 152,440 new homes were completed across the UK in 2014/2015 and Knight Frank estimates that this will rise to around 172,000 in 2015/2016. New quarterly data on English new build completions show a 12% rise in 2015/2016 to just under 140,000. However, separate retrospective data published by the DCLG shows that 155,080 new homes were completed in 2014/2015. ‘This suggests that the quarterly data is underestimating total house building across England,’ said Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank. ‘Whatever data is considered, there has been a significant step up in the delivery of new homes over the last few years and large house builders are now constructing 60% more homes than in 2010,’ she added. She explained that on an annual basis, Knight Frank estimates a 12% rise in new build completions in the last year. However, on both… Continue reading
