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Special Report: A matter of life & debt

Special Report: A matter of life & debt Dhanusha Gokulan / 26 September 2013 Financial insecurity is a major concern in the UAE, where 50 per cent residents reportedly do not have a savings plan and many face a barrage of texts, e-mails, and calls from their debtors. Khaleej Times delves into the scenario where a few payment lapses make banks turn into a person’s biggest nightmare and comes up with experts’ advice on how to escape the debt trap.  When A Ferns (real name withheld to protect his identity) arrived in Dubai from India seven years ago, he had a frugal family background. “My parents taught me to live within my means,” says the 27-year-old. “There was never any talk of loan, credit cards, or mortgage at home. So when I came to Dubai, I was like a kid in a toy store.” In 2006, his salary was Dh12, 000. In less than two years, he had amassed a debt of Dh175, 000. “There was a car loan, three credit cards, and a personal loan. At the worst possible time my ex-wife filed for divorce, so I had a monthly alimony to send home as well. By the end of 2008, I had lost my job and had a total debt of Dh200,00.” When he began contemplating selling his ancestral land in South India, his father intervened. “My dad paid off a huge chunk of my loan. It was one of the most humbling moments of my life when he had to issue a cheque  (handing over) his retirement savings.” However,  by mid-2009 he had got another job and swore to pay every penny back to his father and most importantly, to live within his means. “My mistake was that I got carried away and I wanted everything. A big car, a villa in Jumeirah, the latest in gadgets, just everything … “But the worst mistake was that I did not bother with the terms and conditions of my loan repayments. In most cases, I did not even know what the interest amount was.” Ferns is among thousands of UAE residents plagued by the “debt problem”. Almost 50 per cent of UAE residents do not have a savings plan and financial insecurity is one of their biggest concerns, says a survey by research company YouGov. This is not surprising, given the Central Bank and banking institutions reporting a record surge in consumer debt in the UAE this year. Personal borrowing hit more than Dh270 billion in the first five months of this year, and experts say the root cause of the problem is poor financial literacy and easily available credit.  Rana Zeeshan Saleem, head of retail asset and KSA retail, Emirates NBD, told Khaleej Times that demand for credit has increased across all categories. “From January to June 2013, there has been a 50 per cent increase in the demand for loans. Car loans have gone up, home loans have gone up, personal loans have gone up. “People take loans for medical reasons, home renovation. There is an increase in demand across the industry in all categories,” says Saleem.  Credit card rates range from 34 to 36 per cent and personal loan rates fluctuate from 6 to 8 per cent. “Currently, banks have little or no record of the payment history of an individual; (so) regulating loans becomes a task,” he adds. However, the Central Bank is now planning to introduce a bureau that will keep track of residents’ financial history.  Bhairav Trivedi, chief executive officer at Network International, a payment solution provider in the Middle East, says the card market in the UAE has grown 15 per cent in the last six to seven months.  “Though there is not much transaction in the real estate market, there is a lot of usage of cards for traditional payments, such as (for) hospitality (hotels and restaurants) and duty free shopping. And now there is an upsurge in the purchase of fuels as well.”   How the addiction grows Those who have recovered from debt or are still stuck indicate lack of financial literacy and consumerism are the prime reasons for heavy borrowing. Car loans, personal loans, and credit card dues are the most common loans for which expatriates approach banks. Beating debt UAE Saves Week, organized by www.cashy.me, is a week-long community initiative launched on Sunday to enable people to improve their financial health.   The YouGov survey of 1,011 residents to assess attitudes and responsibilities towards money management confirms that financial concerns and debt are the biggest causes of stress among residents. More than a third (34 per cent) said this. Of them, 57 per cent stated they have a long way to go before becoming debt-free. However 55 per cent of this population is ready to make lifestyle changes to get out of their current situation.  Perhaps the most worrying find is that more than 60 per cent of the respondents would not be able to survive for six months if cut off from their current source of income. Another 15 per cent said they had no savings whatsoever. According to Nima Abu-Wardeh, founder and CEO of www.cashy.me,  financial literacy is what people need.  “We launched UAE Saves Week with the objective of helping people take the first steps towards saving money and hopefully, to continue to practise these lessons for the rest of their lives,” she says. “People must learn to live within their means. Financial stress affects every single aspect of our lives. We need to make this a part of public discourse and encourage people to take baby steps.” 
 UAE Saves Week UAE Saves Week brings a series of themed challenges designed to motivate and empower people to manage their finances more responsibly. The themes are Savings Sunday, Pack Your Lunch Monday, Green Tuesday, Wise Up Wednesday, Get out of Debt (GOOD) Thursday, Frugal Friday and Stick With it Saturday.  Green Tuesday, for example, aims to improve awareness of the economic benefits of going green. Get out of Debt Thursday teaches people to live within their means and urgently tackle debt, a pressing and growing concern in this region. Stick with it Saturday brings the event to a close by encouraging people to take one simple pledge and sticking with it, even if it is as small as setting aside Dh1,000 every pay day. For details go to www.cashy.me/uaesw/ Experts say taking loans to pay off another loan is no solution.  “It might be a temporary fix but you will end up borrowing more,” says Kenyan Evans A Oduya. “My brother was stuck in debt for the entire time he lived in Dubai. He had six credit cards and two personal loans from the bank. He lived way beyond his means for two years, till the credit card debt finally caught up with him. He spent four years repaying loans and eventually left Dubai saying he had no savings.” Augustine C (name withheld to protect his identity), a Filipino national, needs to repay a Dh100, 000 loan he took to purchase a car and now “kind of” regrets. “My monthly salary is Dh11, 000 and my wife’s income is Dh4, 000,” he says. “I spend Dh5,000 every month repaying loans, Dh1,000 goes into my kid’s education and I also pay a Dh28, 000 rent. Electricity, telephone bills, grocery bills, and an occasional outing with the family are the other expenses. It is difficult to save with all of these expenses.  “Now I think I should’ve bought a second-hand car instead. I would have been able to save some money.” Several residents, overburdened with debt and unable to cope with the stress, took severe steps like suicide.  Jamal (name changed on request), the head of a family of four, has loans of over Dh150, 000. His monthly salary is Dh7,500. “A major chunk of my salary goes in repayment of loans, credit card bills and school fees for the kids,” he admits. “I sent my son back to India because education there is much cheaper. My wife babysits to earn some money. Sometimes, I get very depressed wondering if I will ever get out of this rut. But I need to keep fighting for my family.” Jamal calls credit cards an addiction: “Because they are so convenient, people like me use them on a day-to-day basis to make ends meet.”  Rupert Connor, a partner at Abacus Financial Consultants who has been living in the UAE since 2002, says there is very little incentive for people to save here though the government doesn’t provide any kind of pension. “This is a tax-free environment,” Connor says. –  dhanusha@khaleejtimes.com Make your money last Financial gurus give  Khaleej Times  tips on how to slash debt.  Rama Chakaki, founder of BarakaBits, a website that focuses on business, the environment and other themes in the Middle East, says people need to be made more aware of the ramifications of debt.  They also need to be provided with alternatives.  “People now have an insatiable appetite for stuff which tends to tie us down,” she says. “They must learn to enjoy the simpler things in life like health and natural environment.” Rama’s insights on beating debt > Sit down  with your family or whoever you are responsible for and draw up a financial plan that matches your income > Save for  a rainy day while living comfortably > Prioritise > Rule out  impulsive buying > Resist  advertised temptations > Watch movies  that show you how we are manipulated by the marketing industry > Surround yourself  with people from the same culture > Stick around  sensible people and educate yourself > Read all  the conditions before getting into a financial contract > Do not  write post-dated cheques > Communicate with  your debtors and draw up a clear plan of action with them > Use the  metro and bicycle > Lead a  simpler life   Rupert Connor, partner at Abacus Financial Consultants Be careful before jumping into any commitment with financial consultants. 
“A male, single and with no dependants, must save minimum 5 to 20 per cent imum of his income for five to 10 years. “Before you sign up with a consultant, you need to get a referral. I personally would never do business with someone who phones me up and suggests I need a financial advisor. “Do your research before meeting someone and take about six to nine months before signing up for anything,” Connor adds. Connor’s six steps to financial stability > Set goals:  For example, you may want to retire at 55 or keep aside funds for your children’s private education > Find out  about your finance prospects, investments, family commitments, ambitions and plans > Analyse your  current financial situation and squaring it off with your aspiration > Construct a  financial plan. And once you decide what you want in the future, draw up a programme to make your goals possible > Implement strategies:  You could put a will in place and start saving for your retirement from the age of 25. It will come out to be much cheaper as compared to when you are older > Monitor and review:  Conduct a regulatory review, assess your situation and adjust your plan accordingly. Check with your advisor on how your funds are doing and meet with the advisor every six months at least. Continue reading

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Lib Dem Conference: Vince Cable’s Speech – Full Text

The Spectator 16 September 2013 Friends. It is a special pleasure to speak to Conference in the city where I had my political baptism of fire. Glasgow is a great city and Glaswegians are warm, hospitable and humorous. But Glasgow has experienced one party, Labour, rule for decades. And I was part of the Labour political machine here in the 1970s. On one level it worked. Insanitary slums were razed to the ground. We built 30,000 new social homes for rent in a decade – 5,000 in one year, a scale unimaginable today. There was also an unhealthy tribalism and a Tammany Hall political machine in which union bosses had excessive influence in picking candidates and deciding policy. Judging by Falkirk, and other Labour fiefdoms, nothing very much has changed. That is one major reason why we must not concede to Labour the mantle of radical progressive politics. We must assert our party’s ownership of that tradition, which in Scotland runs for over a century: from Asquith, Gladstone and Campbell-Bannerman through to Jo Grimond, David Steel, Charles Kennedy, Bob McLennan, Ming Campbell, Jim Wallace and many others. The challenge today is to reinforce that Liberal tradition which is at risk of being compromised by working with what, on Clydeside, are called ‘the hated Tories’. And that’s when people are being polite. Like you, I’ve spent most of my political life fighting against those ‘hated Tories’. But despite that I believe that it was both brave and absolutely right for the party, under Nick Clegg’s leadership, to work with the Tories in an economic emergency, in the UK national interest. Theresa May once described the Tories, a decade ago, as the Nasty Party. After a few years trying to be nice and inclusive it has reverted to type: dog whistle politics, orchestrated by an Australian Rottweiler. Hostility towards organised labour, people on benefits and immigrant minorities. The list of people the Tories disapprove of is even longer: public sector workers, especially teachers; the unmarried; people who don’t own property. Their core demographic excludes pretty much anybody who wouldn’t have qualified for the vote before the 1867 Reform Act. These prejudices can perhaps be explained, in part, by their age profile. I suspect I would qualify – on age, not ideology – to be a member of the Young Conservatives. But I think the other reason is deeper: a cynical calculation in difficult times that fear trumps hope; that competence requires callousness. That is not our kind of politics. It is ugly. And we will not be dragged down by it. That is why our Liberal Democrat message about Fairness is key. We can legitimately claim ownership of fair tax policies which have lifted millions of low earners out of income tax. It is our policy. Don’t let the Tories steal it. I can remember in opposition bringing this proposal to conference, at a time when George Osborne’s top priority was cutting inheritance tax for millionaires. And our commitment to taxing unproductive wealth – valuable property – through a Mansion Tax, is economically sensible and popular; but above all, fair. Don’t let Labour steal that either. Fairness takes us so far – but in my view not far enough. We are not just a nicer version of the Tories. There are fundamental differences about how to create a stronger economy and more jobs. We are five years on from the biggest market failure of our lifetime. Financial capitalism collapsed and was rescued by the state. Labour was in charge and had fallen asleep at the wheel. They were negligent. The Tories’ friends and donors were at the heart of the greed and recklessness which lay behind that disaster. Today they yearn to return to ‘business as usual’. Whilst we work with them, pragmatically and constructively, to clean up the mess, we must not allow them to turn the clock back. In essence, the Tories have a simple world view; private good, public bad. Labour offers the polar opposite. As Liberal Democrats we value both public and private sectors. I support private business, big and small. I also support mutual and employee ownership. And even Tony Benn couldn’t claim to have launched two state-owned banks; the Green Investment Bank – based in Edinburgh- which we promised three years ago has already committed £685 million to green projects. And the Business Bank, which I launched at Conference exactly a year ago is now mobilising private capital to support new banks, local banks and non bank finance. It is the key to stopping the suffocation of good small business by the big banks. By contrast, the Conservatives’ spiritual home is in the United States. They have become the Tea Party Tories. They want to throw overboard any tax or regulation which gets in the way of their blinkered small state ideology. Deep down they believe that there is no alternative to unhindered individual self-interest; that attempts to tackle big disparities of income and wealth takes us down the road to socialist serfdom. Our rejection of dogma also leads us to an eclectic mixture of markets and regulation. In government we are rightly getting rid of the red tape which throttles small business and holds back entrepreneurs. But some regulation is essential. And that is why I work – with Ed Davey and colleagues – to resist Tory pressure to emasculate environmental regulation, as in their ludicrous war on windmills. That is also why we have seen off demands from a Tory donor to make it possible to fire people for no reason whatsoever. Let no one tell you that Liberal Democrats have not made a difference. Without us in government, we would be ruled by people who think the problem with this country is that workers have too much job security. Instead, I will act against abusive practices in zero hours contracts, like exclusivity arrangements which prevent workers seeking alternatives, even when they are given no work. I have secured agreement in government to launch a formal consultation on the best mechanism to tackle abuse. We have had to take some tough and necessary economic decisions with the Tories. There is of course common ground on the need to cut the budget’s structural deficit and promote private enterprise. There are welcome signs of returning confidence. But let us not be carried away, and let’s not get sucked into a petty point scoring, Labour-Tory Punch and Judy show on the economy. It took many years of mistakes to create the financial crisis. It has taken five years to start to dig our way out. We mustn’t now settle for a short term spurt of growth, fuelled by old-fashioned property boom and bankers rediscovering their mojo. We have seen it all before and there are already amber lights flashing to warn us of history repeating itself. The Prime Minister says I am a Jeremiah. But you will recall from your reading of the Old Testament that Jeremiah was right. He warned that Jerusalem would be overrun by the armies of Nebuchadnezzar. In my own Book of Lamentations I described how Gordon Brown’s New Jerusalem was overrun by an army of estate agents, property speculators and bankers. The problem we have now is that the invaders are coming back. They have a bridgehead in London and the south east of England. They must be stopped. Instead we need sustainable growth. That involves rebalancing the economy across the UK in favour of exports and investment – the central purpose of our government’s industrial strategy. We should celebrate the success stories of motor vehicles and aerospace, the creative industries and educational exports and the partnership between government and business in all of these sectors. Manufacturing is coming back through rebuilt supply chains. We are attacking the country’s scandalous neglect of skills through our successful relaunching of large scale apprenticeships. We have given priority to Britain’s world class science and have created a chain of innovation centres – the catapults – of which there are two in Glasgow, promoting new, business-led, technologies for advanced manufacturing and new offshore renewables. We are building a genuine cross-party consensus around these government interventions so that they endure. But, make absolutely no mistake, without Liberal Democrats they would not have happened. But if sustainable recovery is to be achieved, we must meet the enormous challenge of house building. Demand growth has been outstripping supply, driving up both rents and prices. Property is simply unaffordable for families without big incomes or access to the bank of mum and dad. Yet we are nowhere near recapturing the house building drive which pulled Britain out of the slump in the 1930s. Barely 100,000 homes a year are being completed, a quarter of what was being achieved in the 1960s. In addition, two million social homes have been sold since Mrs Thatcher began in 1979and no less than three quarter of a million of them were sold under Labour. Hence the enormous pressure on families trapped by a lethal combination of low pay, rising rents and tighter benefit rules. The priority right now is increasing housing supply through private and public sectors. Conference took a strong step forward this morning with the proposal to give councils greater borrowing capacity to get on and build social housing. The country desperately needs delivery of homes not dogmatic arguments over tenure. I hoped that we would find common ground with the Tories at least in one area: supporting an open, outward looking country. Indeed we said with one voice: Britain is open for business. Sadly, that message has changed. Brazilian and other students who would bring economic and wider benefits to British universities are being told they are burdensome immigrants so they go to the United States instead. Many Chinese tourists and businessmen are so fed up with the hassle and humiliation involved in trying to visit Britain to invest here that they are taking their money to Germany and France. What they hear is that we are closed for business. That must change. Moreover, our status as a popular destination for job-creating investment from Japan, the USA and mainland Europe could be compromised by careless talk from some of my cabinet colleagues – let alone the backbench Bones and Hollobones – about Britain leaving the European Union and the Single Market. Britain’s future in the European Single Market is being put at risk by the Tories. Yet millions of British jobs depend on our protecting that relationship. Let’s remember that we voted to join the present Coalition. We did not vote to join a coalition with UKIP. Of course, the Tories are frightened by the public reaction to overseas workers. But there is something deeply opportunistic about people who lecture our workers, and the rest of Europe, about the need for free and flexible labour markets, but then squawk with panic when those free and flexible labour markets bring in foreign workers. The politics of identity is toxic, and difficult. At times of hardship, those outside the elite of rich and powerful tend to blame outsiders. But we need to address the underlying problem. At present most workers’ pay is being squeezed in real terms. This has averted an unemployment disaster in the short term. But there is no long-term future in Britain being a low pay, low productivity economy. We cannot just wave a magic wand and make the problem go away but we can be more ambitious in showing the way forward. I have asked the Low Pay Commission to advise how we might achieve a higher minimum wage without damaging employment. The deeper lesson is that business has to be responsible as well as profitable. Three years ago at Conference I said in my speech that we must shine a bright light in the dark corners of capitalism. I thought I was paraphrasing Adam Smith, the sage of the Scottish Enlightenment; but much of the press thought that Karl Marx had risen from his grave in Highgate cemetery to join the Coalition Government. That was before either the Libor or hacking scandals broke; and the revelation of industrial scale tax avoidance by prominent companies. Trust was very badly damaged. Responsible capitalism is, actually, what sensible business wants. And I have worked with business amongst other things to achieve binding shareholder votes on executive pay; to make real progress in getting women properly represented on company boards and getting institutional investors to think longer term. Jo Swinson and I have a lot more work to do to advance family-friendly working and to establish an open register of who owns companies, to help curb tax dodging. And I am preparing to legislate to make it easier to prosecute and ban rogue directors who repeatedly walk away from their debts and their customers. We Liberal Democrats see business as a partner not an adversary in creating responsible capitalism. I’d like to end, as I began, in Glasgow. There is a stretch of the Maryhill Road in the north of the city that connects the ward I once represented with the constituency Jo now represents in parliament. One thing has not changed in all those years. Despite the efforts of different governments in the UK and Scotland there is an enormous gulf – as Jo said in her opening speech, seven years of life expectancy – between the prosperous and educated at one end and a seriously deprived community at the other. I want our party to be arguing for the unity of the United Kingdom. But unity is not just about Scotland and England. It is also about north and south. Public and private. Rich and poor. In our tribally divided politics, the country badly needs the one party that can bridge these dangerous divides. This isn’t just a matter of splitting the difference between other parties’ policies but setting out a clear and distinctive vision. The country needs a party which is competent in office but also committed to fighting prejudice and entrenched privilege. We are that party. Tags: Lib Dem conference 2013 , Speeches , Vince Cable Continue reading

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Examining Thoughts On Germany’s Clean Energy Push

by Breakthrough Institute Germany’s renewable energy transition, the “Energiewende,” has long been a subject of scorn among conservatives, who have argued that it is a massive ratepayer-subsidized boondoggle that has harmed Germany’s economy and imposed significant regressive costs on poor and working class energy consumers. But the last several months have seen growing skepticism about the Energiewende from the center-left as well. Both Der Spiegel and Slate have published lengthy investigative pieces raising troubling questions about the costs and the environmental benefits of Germany’s headlong pursuit of an all-renewable energy future. Salon recently published an article criticizing Germany’s transition from nuclear to coal. Even left-leaning Dissent Magazine recently published a long expose about the failure of the Energiewende to reduce carbon emissions, concluding that Germany’s enormous investments in renewables, together with plans to phase out its nuclear fleet, would cost the nation a generation in the fight against global warming. At stake are not simply public perceptions of the Energiewende, but the future of efforts to rapidly expand deployment of wind and solar power elsewhere. Environmentalists and renewables advocates have long held up Germany’s example as one that the United States and other nations ought to emulate. To the degree to which the Energiewende is instead perceived as a cautionary tale, efforts elsewhere to expand subsidies and deployment mandates for renewable energy, and to dismantle the present day utility sector in favor of a much more decentralized electrical sector are clearly at risk. It is a measure of just how serious the new center-left criticisms of the Energiewende have been, and how threatening they are to the long-standing green climate and energy agenda, that prominent clean-tech thought leader Hal Harvey, long a powerful behind-the-scenes player in efforts to expand deployment subsidies for wind and solar power and transform the utility sector, has stepped out publicly and issued an extended defense of the Energiewende against its growing chorus of environmentally minded critics. image via Shutterstock As the head of the Energy Foundation and Climate Works and the director of the Hewlett Foundation’s climate and energy programs, Harvey aggregated and spent more money on climate and clean energy policy development and advocacy than any other philanthropic institution over the last two decades – between 2008 and 2010 alone, Climate Works and affiliated philanthropic institutions spent over a half billion dollars on climate and energy policy and advocacy according to one recent study. America’s overlapping mash of renewables subsidies, deployment mandates, and regional cap and trade programs is arguably as much Harvey’s legacy as anyone else’s. For this reason, Harvey’s defense of the Energiewende is revealing, both for what it acknowledges about the real costs and slow progress and for what it attempts to deny and downplay. Harvey acknowledges the enormous costs at which renewables innovation has been achieved in Germany, writing that escalating costs of the Energiewende “need to be controlled” and that Germany’s large direct subsidies for renewables represent only a portion of their total cost. “One still has to pay for transmission and distribution, for taxes, and for system resources to balance the variability of solar output,” he notes. And he recognizes the enormous challenges that still must be overcome in order for a transition from fossil energy to renewables to begin in earnest. “There is no doubt that the accelerated phase-out of nuclear power combined with the strong carbon targets for the utility sector make for a complex transition,” he concludes. “Germany will have to reinvent power markets, build more transmission lines, and think deeply about a new business model for its utilities.” But he also obfuscates many inconvenient facts, particularly those that suggest that current problems facing the Energiewende represent more than temporary setbacks, associated with a cold winter, rising natural gas prices, and the nation’s decision to accelerate the phase out of it’s aging nuclear fleet, and rather are likely to represent endemic and persistent problems associated with efforts to achieve high penetrations of intermittent renewable energy sources given present day technologies in Germany and beyond. A basic reality check on Harvey’s claim follows: Harvey claims that most of the impressive sounding 24 percent share of electricity that Germany generates from renewables comes from wind and solar. But in fact only about half does. The rest comes from hydropower, biomass, and trash incinerators. As The Economist recently reported , “the largest so-called renewable fuel used in Europe is wood.” Biomass has proven to be an increasingly dubious source of carbon-free energy before even considering the broader environmental implications for forests and habitat of returning to burning wood for energy at significant scale. The situation in Germany is not as bad as in some other European nations. But like the rest of Europe, Germany has relied heavily upon burning trees and trash in order to meet its renewables targets, a fact that is rarely mentioned by Energiewende boosters. Harvey is no exception in this regard. Of Harvey’s 24 percent, wind and solar represent about 5 and 7 percentage points, respectively, leaving less popular forms of renewable power to carry fully half the lift of the Energiewende. Harvey claims repeatedly that Germany has successfully decarbonized its electricity sector through the Energiewende. In fact, the carbon intensity of Germany’s economy has seen little change since 2000, when the nation embarked on the Energiewende. More recently, emissions have been rising. As the latest numbers from Germany’s BdeW utility consortium show, Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions rose 1.6 percent in 2012, the increase mostly coming from carbon dioxide emissions by coal-burning power plants. Anthracite coal carbon emissions rose 3.4 percent, while emissions from lignite rose 5.1 percent. Emissions are projected to rise again in 2013 . Harvey claims that Germany’s nuclear phase-out has not resulted in increased coal burning, but the evidence he cites contradict the claim. To support his claim, Harvey argues that no new coal plants have been approved since Germany announced plans to accelerate its nuclear phase-out after the Fukushima accident. Harvey is correct when he states that Germany’s current coal building binge has been long planned. But so has its nuclear phase-out, which was initiated over a decade ago. One can reasonably surmise that the long planned expansion of coal facilities has been, at least in some part, in anticipation of the long planned phase-out of aging nuclear facilities. Harvey chooses not to entertain this possibility. Harvey claims that recent increases in emissions from coal plants are temporary phenomena, relying entirely on analysis lifted whole cloth from a recent blog post by Amory Lovins to suggest that rising emissions were the product of a cold winter and rising natural gas prices. In fact, they are in significant part a direct result of renewables policies. German policy mandates that the grid take renewable energy first and fossil energy second. This results in what is known as the merit order effect. As more intermittent renewable energy enters the grid, it displaces the most costly type of fossil power generation, natural gas. As a result, natural gas generation decreased last year while coal’s share of electricity rose from 43.1 percent to 44.7 percent.  And lignite – the dirtiest form of coal – increased from 24.6 percent to 25.6 percent. Moreover, as the Energiewende continues, carbon emissions from coal will likely continue to rise. The confluence of a priority grid access for renewables and a low European carbon price have squeezed flexible natural gas out of the market, adding to the gains coal has taken from nuclear power. In 2012 Germany commissioned 2.9 GW of new coal-fired power capacity. According to BdeW , Germany will add another 4.6 GW of coal power in 2013. Of a planned 42.5 GW of major power plants to be built by 2020, two thirds will be new coal and gas generators. Harvey claims that Germany’s low wholesale electricity prices, due to increasing competition from renewables, cancel out much of the cost of the renewable energy surcharge that retail customers pay to underwrite Germany’s feed in tariffs. Yet his own numbers belie this claim. Harvey acknowledges that the renewable energy surcharge constitutes one sixth of the retail electricity rate, adding approximately five cents per kilowatt-hour to the price of retail electricity. He then cites German government estimates that higher renewables penetrations have driven wholesale electricity prices down one cent per kilo-watt hour, saving ratepayers about $5 billion Euro per year. At best, then, lower wholesale prices mitigate less than a quarter the cost of the renewables surcharge. While lower wholesale rates will save ratepayers about $5 billion in 2013, Financial Times reported recently that in 2013 the feed-in tariffs will cost ratepayers €20.4 billion ($27 billion). Continue reading

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