Tag Archives: financial
Number of UK tenants in arrears rises but still a small proportion overall
Progress for UK residential tenants significantly behind on rent halted in the first quarter of the year with those in arrears up 4% since a year ago. In the first three months of 2015 there were now 70,900 tenants facing more than two months of unpaid rent, some 1,500 more households than in the previous quarter, when 69,400 tenants were over two months behind on rent, or a quarterly increase of 2.2%. Since the same point last year the number of tenancies in such a position has grown by 4%, with 2,700 additional households falling into this most serious category of late rent, according to the latest tenant arrears tracker by estate agency chains Your Move and Reeds Rains, part of LSL Property Services. This setback represents a levelling off in the number of tenants in the most dire financial situation. Compared to the worst peak of serious rent arrears in third quarter of 2012, when 116,600 households faced more than two months in late rent, this has moderated significantly, to the tune of 45,700 fewer such cases in the first quarter of 2015. However, the report points out that progress has now been incremental or even backwards for over 18 months with the fourth quarter of 2013 still the best calendar quarter on record, when just 63,500 struggled with serious rent arrears. Despite a lack of progress since the end of 2013, the chance of a given tenant falling so far behind on rent is extremely low. As a proportion of all tenants, just 1.4% owed more than two months’ rent in the first quarter of 2015, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2014. This compares to 2.9% in the first quarter of 2008 even before the worst of the financial crisis and recession. A setback for the most severe cases of rent arrears comes despite a more encouraging trend among those who fall more incrementally behind on payments. As of March 2015, 7.4% of rent is now in arrears of any length, down from 7.6% in February 2015 and down from 7.8% of all rent late a year before in March 2014. As with severe arrears, rent arrears of all lengths remain considerably lower than in previous years, since peaking at 14.6% in February 2010. ‘Tenants are now far less likely to be out of work than at this point last year but many tenants are still struggling to keep up with household expenses in the face of extremely modest wages. There are some signs on the horizon this will improve, but in the meantime a small but significant minority of households are facing a real challenge to find the rent every month,’ said Adrian Gill, director of estate agents Your Move and Reeds Rains. ‘Other factors are at play too. There are also more cases of severe arrears, in absolute terms, because there are more people renting their home overall. The chance of a… Continue reading
Election result hailed as positive for UK commercial property markets
The UK general election result should be positive for the country’s commercial property markets but the landslide in favour of the SNP in Scotland could result in uncertainty north of the border, according to experts. If the SNP push for another referendum on independence then uncertainty could creep into the markets north of the border, it is suggested. And a referendum on the UK’s position within the European Union could add to that. ‘There is good reason to now suppose the UK economy, that appeared to slow in the run-up to the election, can now resume a strengthening recovery. This will be good news for both the commercial leasing and investment markets,’ said James Roberts, chief economist of real estate firm Knight Frank. He believes there remains a great deal of political uncertainty that will influence but not derail the property market. ‘Firstly, the SNP’s overwhelming victory has put the existence of the Union back on the political agenda. Last year there was a brief slowdown in activity in the Scottish market in the run-up to the referendum, which may be replicated in a future poll. This comes with the caveat that some investors actually saw last year’s referendum as an opportunity to buy,’ he explained. ‘Secondly, a Conservative majority increases the chances of a referendum on European Union membership. If the prospect of Scottish independence caused a market slowdown, the idea of the UK leaving the EU will surely do the same, probably on a greater scale. Either a Tory backbench rebellion against the Bill or a vote sooner rather than later may be the best outcome,’ he pointed out. ‘Thirdly, the UK’s deficit remains large. If the financial markets suspect that not enough is being done to balance the books, sterling could fall in value. This will initially make UK commercial property look attractive to overseas money, but inflationary pressures would increase and bring closer the day that interest rates rise,’ he added. Over the next five years, the firm believes that this climate of political uncertainty will at times cause market confidence to drain away temporarily. ‘Some investors may decide to wait until after an upcoming referendum before buying; some occupiers might shelve expansion plans because a sudden fall or rise in sterling hits profits,’ said Roberts. ‘In short, we should expect the odd air pocket ahead, but overall the election outcome was probably much better for commercial property than one would have expected,’ he concluded. Miles Gibson, head of UK research at CBRE, also pointed out that the overall economic outlook remains favourable for markets. ‘Strong employment, low inflation, low interest rates and high levels of inward investment all bode well for the property sector,’ he said. But he believes that there remains, however, a question mark over EU membership, something ‘which bothers most of our clients immensely as they feel investment would suffer if we were to leave the EU’. The firm believes… Continue reading
UK agency predicts a million tenants could lose out under rental plans
A million tenants in the UK could lose their rental properties as a result of one of the major party's policies on the private rented sector, it is claimed. Belvoir, one of the UK’s largest property management agencies, predicts that Labour’s pledge to introduce new anti-landlord rental policies could result in landlords leaving the sector. ‘I am shocked at Ed Miliband’s proposals and his decision to ignore industry experts who have issued dire warnings about the unprecedented suffering that his party’s policies are likely to cause to tenants,’ said Dorian Gonsalves, Belvoir’s director of commercial and franchising. ‘Under a Labour Government, landlords will be forced to commit to three-year tenancies and banned from raising rents above inflation. You don’t have to be a mathematician or property expert to work out how deeply flawed these policies are,’ he explained. He pointed out that there are currently 11 million people renting property in the UK, which amounts to about 20% of the population and includes 1.5 million families with children. ‘There are around four million rental properties available and if just 10 to 15% of landlords decide to withdraw from the rental market because they are uncomfortable with Labour’s proposals and feel unable to manage their risks, particularly when mortgage rates rise, these homes will no longer be available,’ he said. ‘These tenants will either become homeless or face the appalling consequences of having to move in with family and friends on a long term basis,’ he added. Gonsalves also pointed out that when you look at the promises made on new homes from all the main parties, the most that any party has pledged is 300,000 properties in the next five years. ‘Clearly this figure will not even begin to satisfy current demand, which is the reason that we’re facing a housing shortage,’ he said. ‘We should not forget that it was the Labour Government’s incompetence that contributed to the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, which resulted in a credit crunch that has left millions of people unable to obtain mortgages or save for a deposit to buy their own home. It is therefore very short sighted and totally irresponsible of Labour to introduce policies that will drastically reduce the number of available rental properties,’ he commented. ‘Landlords are very tired of being made to look like criminals who are constantly looking to rip off tenants and provide low quality housing. In our experience, 99.9% of landlords are decent people that provide decent housing for tenants on a long term basis,’ he added. The Belvoir rental index shows that in most parts of the country there has not been the major rental increases that Ed Miliband speaks of. ‘However, if we look back over the past five to 10 years and apply Labour’s proposed inflation rule for rental increases to many parts of the… Continue reading
