Tag Archives: finance
Office rents in Europe saw strongest growth of last five years in second quarter of 2016
Rents on prime office assets across Europe grew by 1.5% quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2016 compared to 0.7% in the previous quarter, the strongest increase in the past five years. Rents in Europe outpaced the Americas and Asia Pacific regions with Stockholm recording the strongest growth in region of 9.4% followed by Berlin with growth of 6.3%. The data from real estate firm JLL also shows that Paris saw growth of 3.4% as limited new supply and more robust take-up pushed up prime rents for the fourth consecutive quarter while in Southern Europe, the momentum in the market recovery has continued in Milan with rents up 2% and in Barcelona up 3.7% and Madrid up 0.9%. Following the UK’s decision to leave the European Union headline rents have so far remained unchanged in London compared to the first quarter of 2016. The report says that rent free periods may soften as occupiers look to negotiate more flexible terms with greater lease flexibility. But the Brexit vote has so far had little effect on rental growth outside the UK. ‘Office demand is proving resilient in many of the world's dominant commercial real estate markets despite increased political and economic uncertainty which is leading to corporate occupiers striking a more cautious tone,’ said Jeremy Kelly, director in global research programmes at JLL. ‘Underlying market fundamentals are sound and corporate demand is holding up well, notably in continental Europe,’ he pointed out and added that looking to the second half of the year, a period of steady rental increases for prime European offices is anticipated. Indeed JLL is predicting rental growth of 2.5% to 3% in Western Europe which will outperform the 10 year average over the next few years. Stockholm and Madrid are expected to be the region's high performers over 2016. ‘In London, rents and incentives may come under pressure in certain sections of the market, although low vacancy rates coupled with an increasingly diverse occupier base will act to cushion the impact of weaker sentiment,’ said Jon Neale, head of UK research at JLL. ‘Our priority over the second half of the year will be to monitor occupier activity and other developments, although it is unlikely that any real conclusions over longer term market implications can be made until the nature of Brexit becomes more apparent as we move into 2017,’ he explained. ‘For the time being, however, our research indicates that the vast majority of occupier deals in progress at the time of the referendum are still continuing as planned,’ he added. Continue reading
Demand for rural land in the UK fell sharply in first half of 2016
Demand in the UK’s rural land market fell sharply in the first half of 2016 while supply continued to increase, albeit very modestly, the latest industry survey shows. This rise in supply relative to demand pushed 12 month price expectations deeper into negative territory with a net balance of 49% of contributors now expecting prices to fall, across all farm types, over the coming year. The data from the RICS/RAE rural land market survey also shows that yields on investment land drifted slightly down, to 1.6% and anecdotal evidence from respondents suggests that increased uncertainty due to the Brexit vote and resulting confusion over the future of CAP payments has weighed on the market. This has compounded the already subdued demand due to low commodity prices, the report points out and while commercial farmland continues to experience the worst of the current downturn with demand falling most substantially, blocks with a residential component also saw a sharp contraction in buyer interest. Indeed, some 19% more contributors reported a fall rather than a rise. Likewise, while expectations for prices at the 12 month horizon are slightly worse for commercial farmland, the outlook for mixed residential farmland turned markedly more negative in the first six months of the year with a net balance of 42% of surveyors expecting prices to fall rather than rise over the next year. The survey’s transaction based measure of farmland prices, which includes a residential component where its value is estimated to be less than 50% of total, edged down in the latest period and now stands at £10,750 per acre. Meanwhile, the survey’s opinion based measure, a hypothetical estimate by surveyors of the price of bare land, fell by 4% between the first half of 2016 and the second half of last year. Since 2015, the difference between the two measures has widened somewhat and RICS says that this may reflect several influences but the fact that the transaction based measure contains some residential element is probably a significant factor at the moment, given that residential prices in most parts have continued to rise steadily over the past year. According to surveyors, average arable land rents fell by 8.8% in the first half of the year and by 3.1% over the year as a whole. Average pasture land rents fell by 6.7% and by 7.3% respectively. The buyer profile has remained broadly unchanged over recent years with individual farmers still representing around 60% of purchases. Meanwhile lifestyle buyers compose around a quarter of the demand. Continue reading
Prime seaside properties in UK can cost up to 71% more
It’s well documented that that living by the sea in the UK comes at a cost with the latest research showing prime properties on the coast can cost as much as 71% more. The prime waterfront index from international real estate firm Knight Frank points to a number of towns and cities along the Devon, Dorset and Cornwall coast which have surpassed the wider property market over the last two decades in terms of price growth. Using data from the Land Registry, based on actual sales volumes going back to 1995, the index has calculated the annual price performance of individual coastal markets relative to the average price increase across the three counties. Croyde in North Devon has been the best performing coastal market over this time, with annual outperformance of 4.1% on average. While this may seem relatively muted over the course of a year, over 20 years this equates to cumulative price growth of around 122% above the wider Cornwall, Devon and Dorset area. Over the past two decades, Croyde has seen prices more than quadruple, by 432%, compared to 310% combined across the three local authorities. A number of other long established prime markets including Rock, Salcombe, Padstow and Falmouth feature in the hotspots identified in the research, and have all experienced outperformance of at least 2% annually since 1995 according to the analysis. The index report points out that price growth and outperformance can be very location specific. For example, the average annual price outperformance for the top 15 best performing small coastal towns and villages has been 2.8%, compared with 2.6% for medium sized coastal towns such as Christchurch, Topsham and Lyme Regis and 2.5% for the top five large coastal towns or cities including Bournemouth and Exeter. It also explains that higher outperformance in smaller settlements since 1995 is likely to be related to the scarcity of available stock relative to demand. Demand for prime coastal property comes from a variety of sources. Such markets benefit from their appeal to upsizers and downsizers often moving within the local area or looking for a lifestyle change, as well as second and holiday-home buyers. The research also points out that many homes bought in top seaside locations are second homes and the announcement in the Chancellor’s 2015 Autumn Statement that a higher rate of stamp duty would be introduced for additional properties, including second homes, from April 2016 prompted a number of purchasers to bring forward deals ahead of its introduction. ‘In the short term, it may take time for the tax to be absorbed, especially in a market where there are notable levels of discretionary purchases. In turn, this may have an impact on pricing, potentially providing opportunities for committed buyers,’ the report says. ‘Over the longer term we believe transaction volumes will rise once the additional stamp duty is fully priced into the market,’ it adds. Continue reading
