Tag Archives: finance
Brexit uncertainty created pause in UK home borrowing in July
The UK’s mortgage sector was hit in July as a result of the European Union referendum with both the number and value of house purchase approvals falling month on month and year on year. The BBA figures show that house purchase approval numbers were 19% lower than in July 2015, though in the first seven months of 2016 they were some 2% higher than in the same period of 2015. The data also shows that remortgaging approvals were 6% higher than in July 2015 and in the first seven months of 2016 were 21% higher than in the equivalent period of 2015. Overall gross mortgage borrowing of £12.6 billion in the month was 6% higher than in July 2015 while net mortgage borrowing is 3% higher than a year ago. As the first lending figures since the decision to leave the EU not much can be taken from them, according to Rebecca Harding, BBA chief economist. ‘The data does not currently suggest borrowing patterns have been significantly affected by the Brexit vote, but it is still early days. Many borrowing decisions will also have been taken before the referendum vote,’ she pointed out. Andy Knee, chief executive of LMS, said that the figures suggest home buyers took stock in July. He pointed out that the value of loans for house purchases fell to its lowest level since March 2015 following a buoyant first six months of 2016, ‘What remains to be seen is whether this will become the norm or if August activity will be bounce back following the immediate shock. On the other hand, despite a small fall remortgaging is up as existing home owners capitalise on the record low mortgages available,’ he explained. ‘Following the vote for Brexit, swap rates fell leading to lower mortgage rates across the board. At the same time, intense speculation about a decrease in the Bank of England interest base rate to 0.25% and other monetary policy interventions have also contributed to lower rates, encouraged lending and driven home owners to take advantage of this,’ he said. ‘Anecdotally, there is little to suggest a lull in the demand for house purchase and remortgaging. We therefore expect activity to bounce back in the autumn months once the dust settles and some sense of normality returns,’ he added. According to Tanya Jackson, head of corporate affairs at Yorkshire Building Society, believes that people’s desire to own a property largely outweighed any uncertainty caused by the EU referendum in July. ‘That said, the full effects of the vote are unlikely to be seen until a few months after the outcome of the vote was announced, as those buying a home in July are likely to have begun the house buying process before the EU referendum,’ she said. ‘We do expect the outcome of the EU vote to limit market activity to an extent in the short-term as prospective buyers take a wait and see approach on how it affects their finances…. Continue reading
Brexit having more of an effect on Greater London property than rest of UK
Asking prices in the Greater London property market fell by 1.2% between July and August with analysis suggesting Brexit is having more of an impact on the city than other parts of the UK. This is the third monthly fall in a row, with Greater London's average asking prices falling by 1.1% between June and July and by 0.4% the previous month, according to the date from Home.co.uk. The annual rate of price inflation for Greater London property now stands at just 2.5% and falling. The firm is predicting this will fall to 0% within a mere two months, highlighting the very real danger that negative equity is just around the corner. Foreign buyers who purchased a property in London within the last 12 months are probably already in negative equity, the analysis suggests and it points out that in terms of Euros, Greater London home prices have shown a dismal performance over the last year, with values in the region dropping 11% since May and 17% since November last year. However, there is a potential upside that European buyers may be attracted back to the market but house prices and sterling will need to stabilise for that to occur. Housing supply figures from Home.co.uk strongly suggest further price falls are inevitable in the capital as Greater London vendors overload the property market in the aftermath of June's Brexit vote. Between July 2016 and July 2015 new listings in London increased by 27%, compared to a year on year rise of 6% the month before. The typical time on the market has also risen sharply from 68 days in July to 73 days in August, forcing vendors to further cut prices in a property market that was already in a precarious position through buy to let taxation changes and warnings about overvaluation. The South East of England, where in August asking prices fell by 0.2% for the second month in a row, is showing signs of becoming the next property price slump hot spot, as panic selling in the capital spreads out into the capital's commuter belt and beyond, the report also suggests. Between July 2015 and July 2016 the supply of property for sale in this region rose by 19% and the firm is predicting that the South East's typical time on the market of 63 days is likely to rise markedly due to the boost in supply in this region. ‘It is clear that the referendum result certainly unnerved many investors. We will be keeping a particularly close eye on the London market over the next month, watching whether or not the surge in new listings becomes a stampede,’ said Doug Shephard, director at Home.co.uk. ‘This would inevitably lead to a home price crash in the region and stress mortgage lenders to the limit or beyond. Property investors would be well advised to weather the storm and not join a rush to market,’ he added. Continue reading
UK residential sales drop just 0.9% post Brexit vote
Residential property sales in the UK fell slightly by 0.9% between June 2016 and July 2016 and were down 8.3% lower compared with the same period in 2015, according to the latest data from HMRC. For July 2016 the number of non-adjusted residential transactions was about 0.7% higher compared with June 2016 and 13.6% lower than in July 2015. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential property transactions decreased by 7.5% between June 2016 and July 2016 and was 1.7% lower compared with the same month last year. The report points out that there was a large increase in transactions in March 2016 followed by a substantial reduction in April which was associated with the introduction of the higher stamp duty rates on additional properties in April 2016. However, whilst April and May 2016 are lower than the corresponding months in 2015, it should be noted that the total for March to May 2016 is still substantially higher than the corresponding period last year. Non-tax factors may have played a role as well, for example the Bank of England's plans to curb buy to let mortgages resulting in a rush to purchase before April 2016, and the European Union referendum affecting transactions in recent months. According to Andy Sommerville, director of Search Acumen, the statistics suggest the market is stabilising, as the month on month change sits at under 1%. ‘Many would have expected a sharp fall in transaction activity in what was the first full month in our post-referendum economy, yet an underwhelming change suggests the darkness in our market shows little sign of worsening,’ he said. ‘Despite the encouraging resilience the market has shown in the short term, the bigger picture reveals an 8.3% decrease in transactions since July last year, demonstrating the true hit we’ve taken from Brexit, combined with the underlying issue of affordability,’ he pointed out. ‘As our economy absorbs the shock of the past three months, it is positive that home buyers are being given a leg-up into the property market to reignite demand and boost our industry,’ he added. Doug Crawford, chief executive officer of My Home Move, believes the data shows that the property market largely shook off the short term uncertainty of the Brexit vote. ‘Following the referendum there was talk that the market would be quickly affected by the outcome, but these fears have been allayed with residential transactions falling by just 0.9% month on month. While transaction levels remain lower than a year ago, this is in the context of a market that is still feeling the effects of changes to stamp duty, which led to a frontloaded first quarter,’ he explained. ‘The figures reflect our own experiences of the market. Following the referendum the vast majority of purchases went ahead without any issue, and chains were largely unaffected. In the medium term the market will remain stable, and our view is that it is strong enough to weather… Continue reading
