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UK house price growth set to slow in 2016, latest outlook report suggests
House prices in the UK are expected to see growth slow to 4% to 6% due to the increasing difficulty in getting on the housing ladder, together with the prospect of an interest rate rise, according to a new report. The forecast from lender the Halifax comes after a year when activity levels have remained modest by historical standards. A shortage of supply is likely to continue to act as a significant constraint on activity in 2016, it says in its outlook report. Price growth is expected to slow more sharply in London than elsewhere but all regions are expected to experience price rises in 2016 which will be broadly in line with income growth. The report points out that levels of house building remain low, but improvements are expected over the medium term and this would help to bring demand and supply into better balance, helping to constrain upward pressure on house prices. ‘There is little reason to expect any fundamental shift in the key market drivers in the immediate future. As a result, the substantial imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist, maintaining upward pressure on house prices in 2016,’ said Halifax’s housing economist, Martin Ellis. ‘On average, UK house prices look expensive compared to incomes but valuations are supported by the low levels of property for sale, low levels of house building, and exceptionally low interest rates,’ he explained. ‘Nonetheless, with house prices continuing to increase more quickly than average earnings, it is increasingly difficult to get on the housing ladder. This ongoing development, combined with the growing prospect of an interest rate rise, should start to put the brakes on house price growth during the course of 2016,’ he pointed out. ‘A continuing shortage of supply is likely to continue to act as a significant constraint on activity over the coming year. Sales in 2016 are expected to be modestly higher than this year, but to remain well below the peak of 1.6 million in 2006,’ he added. The report points out that house price growth has been robust throughout 2015. The quarterly rate of increase was 2.8% in October, according to the latest figures, a little above the 2.5% average over the first nine months of the year. The annual rate stood at 9.7% in October, the highest annual rate since August 2014 when it was 9.7%, with the annual rate in a narrow band between 8% and 10% all year. ‘Improving economic conditions with continuing growth and rising employment and strengthening household finances, assisted by increasing real earnings for the first time for several years, have boosted housing demand during 2015. This has been supported further by very low mortgage rates which have fallen over the year,’ Ellis explained. ‘Strengthening demand has combined with very low supply, both in terms of new build and second hand properties for sale, to drive strong underlying house price growth. New instructions by home sellers declined in October for the ninth… Continue reading
Pending homes sales in the US up marginally after two months of declines
Pending home sales were mostly unchanged in the United States in October, but shifted marginally higher after two straight months of declines, according to the latest index data. The figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), show that gains in the Northeast and West were offset by declines in the Midwest and South. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, inched 0.2% to 107.7 in October from an upwardly revised 107.5 in September and is now 3.9% above October 2014. The index has increased year on year for 14 months in a row. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, explained that pending sales have plateaued as buyers struggle to overcome a scant number of available homes for sale and prices that are rising too fast in some markets. ‘Contract signings in October made the most strides in the Northeast, which hasn't seen much of the drastic price appreciation and supply constraints that are occurring in other parts of the country. In the most competitive metro areas, particularly those in the South and West, affordability concerns remain heightened as low inventory continues to drive up prices,’ he said. According to Yun, although contract activity has slightly trended downward since the spring, the ongoing strengthening of several local job markets continues to fuel the improved demand for buying that has now pushed existing sales above a five million sales pace for eight consecutive months. ‘Areas that are heavily reliant on oil related jobs are the exception and have already started to see some softness in sales because of declining energy prices,’ Yun added. With demand expected to remain stable through the final two months of the year, Yun forecasts existing home sales are set to finish 2015 at a pace of 5.30 million, the highest since 2006. He pointed out that although further expansion in existing sales is expected next year, ongoing inventory shortages and affordability pressures from rising prices and mortgage rates will likely temper sales growth to around 3% in 2016. Home prices are expected to slightly moderate from a 6% increase in 2015 to 5% next year. ‘Unless sizeable supply gains occur for new and existing homes, prices and rents will continue to exceed wages into next year and hamstring a large pool of potential buyers trying to buy a home,’ said Yun. A breakdown of the figures show that the index in the Northeast rose 4.5% in October, and is now 6.8% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index fell by 1% but remains 3.3% above October 2014. Pending home sales in the South decreased 1.7% in October and are now 0.3% below last October. The index in the West climbed 1.7% in October and is 10.4% above a year ago. Continue reading
Property price growth in Australian capital cities continues to fall
Home price growth in Australian capital cities fell in November with the slowdown recorded the previous month in Sydney and Melbourne in particular continuing, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data index. Over the month, Melbourne values fell by 3.5% while Sydney values were down 1.4%. Hobart dwelling values dropped by 2.4%, Darwin values were down 1.3% and down 0.5% in Canberra. Values rose in the remaining three capital cities, with Adelaide showing the highest month on month growth rate at 0.7%, followed by Brisbane with growth of 0.6% and Perth up 0.3%. Overall the combined capitals housing index has seen dwelling values drop by 1.5% over November, taking the rolling quarterly rate of change to -0.5%. Head of research Tim Lawless pointed out that the latest results are now placing downwards pressure on the annual change in dwelling values. The annual rate of growth across the combined capitals index peaked at 11.5% back in April 2014, and has since reduced to 8.7%. Sydney maintained the highest annual growth rate at 12.8%, which is down from a peak rate of annual growth of 18.4% in July earlier this year, while Melbourne’s annual growth rate has reduced from a recent peak of 14.2% to 11.8% over the 12 months ending November this year. The only capital cities where values have declined over the past year are Darwin with a fall of 4.2% and Perth with a fall of 4.1%, where weaker economic conditions and a slowdown in population growth contributed to an early peak in housing market conditions in December last year. The equivalent peak in the cycle for Darwin was May 2014. Since that time, Perth values are down a cumulative 5.9% and Darwin values have fallen by a larger 6.8%. ‘The fact that mortgage rates have risen independently of the cash rate has, in all likelihood, become a contributor to the slowdown in housing market conditions, as well as tighter lending practices evidenced by a recent reduction in lender risk appetite for investment loans and high loan to valuation ratio mortgages. Tighter mortgage servicing criteria across the board and affordability constraints in the Sydney and Melbourne markets are also having an impact on market demand,’ said Lawless. As a consequence of the tighter lending environment for investors, as well as gross rental yields being at near record lows, participation in the housing market from investors has reduced from 54.1% of all new mortgages in May 2015 to 45.4% at the end of September, which is the lowest level since July 2013. The 1.5% decline in capital city dwelling values over the month, coupled with a 0.3% rise in weekly rents, has seen the average gross yield record a subtle improvement over the month. This follows a trend towards lower rental yields which commenced in May 2013, Lawless pointed out. Gross yields remain close to record lows for houses in Melbourne at an average of 3% while Sydney has overtaken Melbourne… Continue reading
